OSLO 45 Investor Summit The Nordic property markets Bård Bjølgerud / Håvard A. Nustad Pangea Property Partners

Transcription

1 OSLO 45 Investor Summit The Nordic property markets Bård Bjølgerud / Håvard A. Nustad Pangea Property Partners

2 Contents 1 Macroeconomic outlook 3 2 Nordic property markets 4 3 Norway vs. Sweden 11 4 Norwegian property market 14 5 Outlook 18 6 Contact details 20

3 Nordic outlook: improving fundamentals but country-wise differences Macroeconomic forecast GDP, yearly growth CAGR E 2014E 2015E (%) ( ) Norway Sweden Denmark Finland EU CPI, yearly growth CAGR E 2014E 2015E (%) ( ) Norway Sweden Denmark Finland EU Unemployment rate CAGR E 2014E 2015E (%) ( ) Norway Sweden Denmark Finland EU Private consumption CAGR E 2014E 2015E (%) ( ) Norway Sweden Denmark Finland EU Macroeconomic outlook Interest rate Repo rate 6M (Nibor, Stibor, Euribor) 1y swap 3y swap 5y swap 10Y swap Norway Sweden Denmark EU region Selected indicators Consumer confidence indicator Norway 1) Sale of goods purchased by households; 2) Based on interbank rates Denmark Sources: Reuters, Nordea, Bank of Latvia, Bank of Estland, Norges Bank, Eurostat, Bank of Lithuania, SEB, SSB, SCB Norway Sweden Finland Denmark EU Sweden Finland Business confidence indicator Nordics: Retail Sales Indicator 1) Yield curve (%) (2) Norway Sweden Finland Denmark EU M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 10Y US Norway Europe Sweden 3

4 Nordic property markets The Nordics: one of Europe s largest property markets Nordic transaction market snapshot (2013) Transaction volume, EURbn ( ) The Nordic property market 2013 ~450 deals 19.4bn ~190 deals 10.3bn (SEK 90bn) 15% foreign buyers Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Largest Nordic markets (2013) Largest European markets (2012) ~140 deals 4.6bn (NOK 37bn) 12% foreign buyers ~70 deals 2.3bn (DKK 17bn) 55% foreign buyers Norway Denmark Sweden Finland ~50 deals 2.2bn 37% foreign buyers Total transaction volume 20bn Finland 11% Norway 25% Denmark 12% Sweden 52% Total transaction volume ~ 120bn France 11 % Germany 20 % Other 16 % Nordics 20 % UK 33 % Based on transactions with a property value above 10m in Sweden and 5m in Norway, Finland and Denmark Source: Pangea Property Research, market research The Nordic region is one of the largest and most liquid property markets in Europe with transaction volumes around 20bn in recent years 4

5 Nordic property markets Nordic transaction volume by property segment Norway total transaction volume 4.6bn Sweden total transaction volume 10.3bn Hotel 2 % Residential 3 % Other 13 % Hotel 4 % Other 17 % Residential 34 % Retail 24 % Office 58 % Retail 15 % Office 30 % Source: Pangea Property Research Source: Pangea Property Research Denmark - total transaction volume 2.3bn Hotel 13 % Other 10 % Residential 36 % Finland - total transaction volume 2.2bn Residential 15 % Hotel 2 % Office 36 % Retail 20 % Retail 22 % Office 21 % Other 25 % Source: Lokalebasen.dk Source: CBRE/Finadvice

6 Nordic property markets Nordic market has delivered strong long-term returns of around 8% per annum Total return by country ( ) Average risk and return ( ) Index (1999=100) Unlevered total property returns according to IPD/KTI Total return, % Volatility, % ,8 7,7 8,0 6,8 7, ~8% total return in the Nordics between Sweden Norway Denmark Finland Nordics Total return Risk (volatility) Correlation ( ) Sweden Norway Denmark Finland Sweden 100% 78% 55% 80% Norway 78% 100% 79% 80% Denmark 55% 79% 100% 66% Finland 80% 80% 66% 100% Sweden Norway Denmark Finland Nordics Sources: IPD, Pangea Property Research Nordic property investments have delivered stable long-term returns with high correlation between e.g. Sweden and Finland 6

7 Nordic property markets Sweden the largest and most liquid market in the Nordics Comments Monthly transaction volume ( ) Deal summary 2013 Some 190 deals with a total volume of 10.3bn (SEK 90bn) in 2013 Average deal size 54m 20% lower volume than 2012 Largest property deals in 2013: Kungsleden/GE: 610m Starwood/KF: 430m Catena/Brinova: 420m Plus three property related IPOs (Tribona, Platzer, Victoria Park) Trends Domestic investors most active on the buy-side (~85% of volume) Fairly high liquidity outside metropolitan areas Large but decreasing yield spread between prime and secondary assets Improving financing terms m Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul-Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Prime office yields Stockholm and 10Y swap ( ) 8 % 7 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 3 % 2 % 1 % Transaction volumes in the Swedish property market around 10bn in recent years well spread across the country Based on transactions with a property value above 10m Source: Pangea Property Research

8 Nordic property markets Sweden Transaction volume by region (2013) Top locations 1. Stockholm 46.9% 2. Skåne 14.5% 3. Västra Götaland 14.2% 4. Östergötland 4.1% 5. Uppsala 3.8% 6. Västmanland 2.2% 7. Halland 1.8% 8. Örebro 1.8% 9. Kronoberg 1.7% 10. Kalmar 1.3% Gothenburg Stockholm > 1,000m 500-1,000m m < 100 Malmö Based on transactions with a property value above 10m Source: Pangea Property Research

9 Nordic property markets Norway significant retail and office focus Comments Monthly transaction volume ( ) Deal summary 2013 Some 140 transactions with a total volume of EUR 4.6bn (NOK 36.7bn) in 2013 Average deal size 54m Largest property deals 2013 (EUR): Partners Group/Steen & Strøm: 247m Sektor/Storebrand: 216m Thon Reitan/Storebrand: 209m Trends Norwegian pension funds net sellers due to new regulations Three largest property deals within retail segment Stable yields on prime assets, while the yield gap to secondary assets have widened Improving financing terms and banks increasingly willing to lend NOKbn Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Prime office yields in Oslo and 10Y swap rate 8,0 % 7,0 % 6,0 % 5,0 % 4,0 % 3,0 % 2,0 % 1,0 % Y swap Oslo office yields Transaction volume in the Norwegian property market amounted to about EUR 4.6bn in 2013 nearly 70 % of transaction value in Oslo and Akershus Based on transactions with a property value above 5m Source: Pangea Property Research

10 Nordic property markets Norway Transaction volume by region (2013) Top locations 1. Oslo 50.6 % 2. Akershus 18.0 % 3. Eastern Norway 7.7 % 4. Stavanger area 7.4 % 5. Trondheim 6.8 % 6. Bergen 6.6 % 7. Central Norway 2.1 % 8. Southern Norway 0.6 % 9. Northern Norway 0.2 % Trondheim > 1,000m 500-1,000m m < 100 Bergen Oslo Based on transactions with a property value above 10m Source: Pangea Property Research Stavanger

11 Norway vs. Sweden Norwegian and Swedish property market - Summary Swedish market Norwegian market Liquid and transparent market with 3 listing on OMX Nordic in 2013 (Tribona, Victoria Park, Platzer) Market for preference shares Largest property owners (OMX): Hufvudstaden, Wallenstam, Castellum Kungsleden and Rikshem largest buyers in 2013 Net sellers 2013 Public sector Net buyers 2013 Listed sector Share of foreign investors (acq./div.) % / 37% Significant focus on retail and office in 2013 Less activity in recent years, last listing Selvaag Bolig in 2012 Expected increased new listings (Entra Eiendom Q3-Q4 2014) Largest property owners: KLP, DNB, Olav Thon Most active players in 2013 Storebrand, Sektor, KLP Net sellers Institutions Net buyers Private property companies Share of foreign investors (acq./div.) - 12% / 1% Listed sector property companies (EURbn) Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Number of listed companies Market Cap listed companies Average Market Cap Sources: Pangea Property Research 11

12 Norway vs. Sweden Swedish/Norwegian listed property sector universe company overview Category Swedish listed real estate companies Norwegian listed real estate companies Swedish & Norwegian listed property companies positioning matrix (2013) Office companies * Property type focus, % Focused property portfolios Retail companies 100 Selvvag Bolig TRIBONA NPRO CATENA HEBA FABEGE Residential companies Industrial /logistics companies Olav Thon KLÖVERN CASTELLUM DIÖS COREM Storm SAGAX WALLENSTAM VICTORIA PARK Entra HUFVUDSTADEN ATRIUM LJUNGBERG FAST PARTNER WIHLBORGS PLATZER Mixed companies The property companies have been categorized by main use * Entra is not listed (Expected IPO 2014) Small listed property market in Norway mostly because of wellestablished funds and high net work syndicates Sources: Company filings, Pangea Property Research 40 KUNGSLEDEN BALDER Diversified property portfolios Geographical focus, % Currently, Sweden has a sizeable listed real estate sector with 18 pure play property companies and 4 large construction companies with a combined market cap of some ~ 30bn 12

13 Norway vs. Sweden Norwegian and Swedish retail markets - Opportunities Norway Consolidation of Swedish and Norwegian retail ownership Consolidation likely to continue Foreign specialized buyers likely to enter through corporate-, not single asset transactions Similar tenant mix size means market power Similar operating structure Sweden Fragmented market: Few large and specialized shopping centre owners/operators Large number of shopping centres and big boxes Who will start the consolidation? Major synergies to be reaped; leasing, development, operating costs Consolidation position open: Swedish, Norwegian, international operators may all fit the role Similar development skills needed Similar financing structure size matters So far, only Steen & Strøm with major Norwegian/Swedish/Danish portfolio Consolidation position open: Swedish, Norwegian, international operators may all fit the role 13

14 Norwegian property market Largest property owners in Norway Company Nationality Ownership Segments Geographical focus Total area ('000 m 2 ) Property market value * (EURbn) KLP Eiendom NO Institution Office, retail, hotel Central Oslo and larger cities 1, DNB Livsforsikring NO Institution Office, retail, hotel Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, Sweden 1, Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap NO Listed Office, retail, hotel Oslo (58 %) 1, Entra Eiendom NO Private Office Across Norway 1, Storebrand Livsforsikring NO Institution Office, retail, logistics Larger cities 1, Eiendomsspar NO Private Office, hotel Oslo (office/retail), Nordics (hotel) 1, Norwegian Property NO Listed Office Oslo, Stavanger Sektor Eiendomsutvikling NO Private Shopping centres Across Norway FORTIN Properties NO Fund Office, retail Across Norway and Sweden Steen & Strøm Norge NO Private Shopping centres Across Norway Total ~10, *All figures are approximate and based on annual reports, company websites and Pangea s estimates Source: Pangea Property Research, company websites and annual reports 14

15 jan.13 feb.13 mar.13 apr.13 mai.13 jun.13 jul.13 aug.13 sep.13 okt.13 nov.13 des.13 Norwegian property market Norwegian Transaction Market - Summary 2013 NOKbn NOKm Largest transactions in Shopping centre portfolio 2 Shopping centre portfolio 3 (4 properties) (4 properties) Seller Steen & Strøm Buyer Sektor/Partners Group Value NOKm Price per m² n.a. Net yield ~6.0 % Source: Pangea Property Research Seller Buyer Storebrand Sektor EiendomsUtvikling Value NOKm Price per m² Net yield ~6.0 % 0 Seller Buyer 3 2 Shopping centre portfolio (3 properties) Storebrand Thon Reitan AS Value NOKm Price per m² Net yield ~6.0 % Summary After a great transaction volume in 2012, the market experienced a minor downturn in 2013 with about 130 registered transactions worth approx. NOK 36bn The three largest transactions of the year has been shopping centre portfolios. These shopping centres have mainly been located in minor cities around Oslo or in Southern Norway. Life insurance company Storebrand divested 7 centres valued at approx. NOK 3.5bn. Foreign investors accounted for about 12 % of investments in 2013, with Technopolis Oyj making their first acquisition in Norway. Madison International Realty acquired 30 % of a NOK ~3bn shopping centre portfolio in Oslo city centre from Søylen Eiendom % of Hinna Park 5 70 % of 3 properties at Fornebu Seller Buyer Camar/Eføy AS Entra Eiendom Value NOKm Price per m² Net yield n.a. n.a. Seller Buyer IT Fornebu Technopolis Oyj Value NOKm Price per m² Net yield n.a. 15

16 NOKbn % Most active players in the Norwegian market 2013 transaction volume by investor category Acquisitions Norwegian property market - Based on 2013 transaction volume Total volume NOK ~37bn Divestments 100 % NOKbn % Institutions 29 % % Listed companies 1 % % Private companies 45 % % Funds/syndicates 7 % % Other investors 11 % % Foreign investors 1 % % Unknown 6 % 2 Based on transactions with a property value above NOK 50m Source: Pangea Property Research Funds/syndicates and private property companies are currently the most active investors in the Norwegian property market 16

17 Norwegian property market Largest property deals in Norway 2013 # Buyer Seller Property/portfolio Area, m² Price, NOKm (estimated) Price, NOK/m² (estimated) Estimated yield, % Time 1 Partners Group/Sektor Steen & Strøm 4 shopping centres 85,000 2,100 24, % Nov-13 2 Sektor 3 Thon Reitan Storebrand Eiendom Storebrand Eiendom 4 shopping centres 118,000 1,800 15, % Mar-13 3 shopping centres 132,000 1,740 13, % Mar-13 4 Entra Eiendom Camar/Eføy 50 % of Hinna Park 46,000 1,300 28, % Dec-13 5 Technopolis Oyj IT Fornebu 6 Madison International Realty Søylen Eiendom 70 % of three Fornebu properties 30 % of Oslo city centre retail portfolio 49,000 1,260 25,700 ~ % Oct-13 27,600 1,000 36, % Oct-13 7 Oslo Pensjonsforsikring, et al Reitan Eiendom Trondheim Parinvest 61, ,200 ~ % Jun-13 8 Mustad Eiendom DNB Liv Granfoss Næringspark 60, , % Apr-13 9 Braathen Eiendom Oslo S Utvikling Deloitte building 17, ,000 ~ 4.7 % Apr Consortium (Trond Mohn, et al) Sparebanken Vest 66 % of Jonsvollkvartalet 19, ,000 ~ 5.5 % Mar-13 Source: Pangea Property Research

18 Outlook Where is the market moving from now? Where is the Nordic property market heading? Arguments for a STRONG market Arguments for a WEAK market Going forward, there are reasons to expect a gradually improving property market opening up for new kind of deals 18

19 Outlook Forward looking Why Norway should be of interest to International property investors Examples of large cap restructuring opportunities Unwinding / closing of fund structures Fund Value (EURm) Closing Aberdeen Eiendomsfond Norge II ASA 620 Dec-2016 Storebrand Eiendomsfond AS 765 Dec-2015 FORTIN Properties AS 1380 Dec-2016 Entra Eiendom enterprise value EUR 3bn IPO or trade-sale in 2014 Norwegian government to reduce ownership from 100 % -> % (likely) Large cap listed real estate company diversified and largely prime assets Increased sector interest Possible upcoming IPO s, primarily retail/shopping centres Transparent and increasingly liquid market Stable and positive macroeconomic fundamentals Source: Pangea Property Research

20 Contact details Pangea Property Partners Contact details Bård Bjølgerud CEO & Partner Mob: Pangea Property Research publications Company Facts Books PUBLICATIONS Market Facts Books Investor Outlooks Market Updates Listed sector Håvard A. Nustad Director & Partner Mob: Private sector Etc. Stockholm market Oslo market Etc. MARKET DATA Pangea Real Estate Indices (PREX) Nordic institutions Etc. Weekly Update Monthly Update Etc. For more information and subscription, please visit our website: 20

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