OUTLOOK Lisbon, 6 March Manuel Ferreira De Oliveira, CEO

Transcription

1 OUTLOOK 2012 Lisbon, 6 March 2008 Manuel Ferreira De Oliveira, CEO

2 DISCLAIMER Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements other than in respect of historical facts. The words believe, expect, anticipate, intends, estimate, will, may, "continue," should and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may include statements regarding: objectives, goals, strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures; economic outlook and industry trends; developments of Galp Energia s markets; the impact of regulatory initiatives; and the strength of Galp Energia s competitors. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management s examination of historical operating trends, data contained in Galp Energia s records and other data available from third parties. Although Galp Energia believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond its control. Such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors could cause the actual results of Galp Energia or the industry to differ materially from those results expressed or implied in this presentation by such forward-looking statements. The information, opinions and forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only as at the date of this presentation, and are subject to change without notice. Galp Energia does not intend to, and expressly disclaim any duty, undertaking or obligation to, make or disseminate any supplement, amendment, update or revision to any of the information, opinions or forward-looking statements contained in this presentation to reflect any change in events, conditions or circumstances. 2 Outlook 2012

3 A TOTAL RETURN OF 171% SINCE THE IPO! 8.2 bn -0.4 bn 12.7 bn 4.8 bn IPO Value Growth Dividend Paid Current Value 1 1 Price as of 5 March 2008 Source: Bloomberg 3 Outlook 2012

4 GALP IS BUILDING AN EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PORTFOLIO Portugal 7 Venezuela # number of projects Core areas Brazil Angola 20 4 Mozambique 1 East Timor 5 Potential areas Areas to be developed 4 Outlook 2012

5 STRONG EXPLORATION SUCCESS, MORE THAN 2 BLN BBL RESOURCES P2 reserves impacted by higher year end price, from 65.0 Usd/bbl to 72.3 Usd/bbl, due to PSA effect Resource base (Mbbl) 1 x Strong incremental contribution from Tupi and Angolan assets Large prospective resource base still to be certified (more than 1.3 billion bbl) 119 Brazil 500 Tupi Angola 242 Blocks 14, 14K and Block 14 Certified Not yet certified 5 Outlook 2012 Resource base of 773 M bbl Proved reserves Probable reserves Contingent Resources 1 According with Degolyer and Macnaughton report

6 EXTENSIVE PROGRAM IN 2008 Block / Basin Operator % Galp Seismic Drilling Campaign 2008 Exploratory Drilling 2007 Angola Block 14 Chevron 9% - 5 A + 20 D 2/2 Block 32 Total 5% - 3 A 5/7 BM-S-11 Petrobras 10% - 2 E 1/1 BM-S-8 Petrobras 14% - 1 E - Brazil BM-S-21 Petrobras 20% - - 1/1 BM-S-24 Petrobras 20% - 1 E 1/1 Potiguar 1 Petrobras/ Galp 50% 2-3D 7 E + 4 A 4/14 Sergipe / Alagoas 1 Galp 50% 2-3D 3 E + 1 A 2/2 Espírito Santo 1 Petrobras/ Galp 50% - 11 E - Timor Timor Sea ENI 10% 2-3D - - Mozambique Rovuma ENI 10% 2-3D - - Portugal Alentejo/Peniche Tullow / Petrobras 10% / 30% 2D Outlook 2012 A Appraisal Well; D Development Well; E Exploration Well 1 Onshore blocks

7 MONETIZE EXPLORATION ASSETS Projects pipeline 1 Block Projects Start-up Peak production 2 TL Net Entitlement production (Kbbl/d) Lucapa Malange Angola Gabela Negage TBD TBD TBD TBD 14K Lianzi Hub 1 TBD TBD 11 Tupi ,100 Brazil Onshore Usd/bbl 65 Usd/bbl Working production Tupi production not included 80 Usd/bbl TL field from Block 14 is the major contributor to increase in production Net entitlement production to be impacted by crude sales price and PSA terms 7 Outlook Galp Energia estimates 2 For 100% of the project (kboepd)

8 DELIVERING GROWTH Capex (08-12) Bn Others EBITDA CAGR (07-12) > 15% Develop. Angola > 8% Exploration Brazil Type Country Development of Block 14, 14K and 32 Evaluate Tupi discovery and development options Further exploration activities in Brazil, Portugal, Timor and Usd/bbl Average discount to brent below 2 Usd/bbl Reduction of opex per barrel Onshore Brazil with positive contribution from 2011 onwards Development of Angola LNG II project 8 Outlook 2012

9 A MORE COMPETITIVE AND INTEGRATED R&M BUSINESS Crude processed (kbbl/d) Improve refining competitiveness Increase refining throughput Higher conversion yield Refining coverage (%) Distributing refining throughput Hedging refining throughput Increase retail network efficiency To be achieved 9 Outlook 2012

10 OPTIMIZING REFINING & MARKETING SYSTEM Product yield Conversion project increases utilization rate 11% 11% Energy efficiency project to reduce crude own consumption Refining 44% 57% 26% 19% E Gasoline Middle distilates Others Fuel oil Higher exposure to heavier crudes Increase diesel yield Refining margin impact improvement MKT volumes (Mton) Acquisition of Agip network in Spain and Portugal allowing to improve efficiency through economies of scale Agip acquisition synergies to be captured by Galp Energia Marketing Maintain market share in Portugal Review non-fuel rationale to increase return E Retail Wholesale LPG Others Improve quality of products offer (premium products) 10 Outlook 2012

11 DELIVERING GROWTH Capex (08-12) 2.8 Bn EBITDA CAGR (07-12) > 20% Refining Growth > 15% Marketing Maintenance Area Type Execution of conversion project in Porto and Sines Developing units for 2nd generation biodiesel production Monitoring energy efficiency programme Conclude Agip acquisition (End of 1 st Half 2008) RM 2.8 Usd/bbl RM Benchmark@ 4.0 Usd/bbl Assuming stable marketing margins Volatile refining outlook Eur/Usd exchange rate of Outlook 2012

12 TOWARDS A MORE INTEGRATED GAS & POWER PORTFOLIO Source Base x2 Midstream + New sourcing New natural gas sourcing is critical Various Midstream options being study (Ex. DCLNG - Venezuela, Angola LNG II) Nigeria Algeria Actual Illustrative but not exhaustive Nigeria Algeria Long Term (2015+) Capitalizing on LNG market growth with strong prospects Leverage on Iberia Market growth 12 Outlook 2012

13 DIFFERENT DYNAMICS IN THE NATURAL GAS BUSINESS Volumes sold (Bcm) Volumes sold (Bcm) Managing transition process NG Supply E 2012E Regulated 2012E Portugal New environment, with higher level of competition Non- regulated Spain Margin compression NG Infrastr. Distribution network ( 000 Km) Weight of NG infrastructure EBITDA 70% 40% 1 Finalize discussion of retail concession agreements Regulation to be known by 2Q E E 13 Outlook Assuming margin compression scenario

14 DEVELOPING A POWER PORTFOLIO 800 CCGT > 1,200 MW Hydro CCGT Concentrating on execution of projects pipeline, from 80 to 1,200MW New power projects responsible for 1.2 bcm of natural gas consumption Wind and cogens under regulated tariff 160 Extract gas to power margin 80 Cogens 160 New Cogens Wind SRP 1 Increase generation portfolio competitiveness through hydro projects 14 Outlook SRP Special Regime Producers

15 SUSTAINED GROWTH WITH A REGULATED BUSINESS MIX Capex (08-12) 1 Bn EBITDA CAGR (07-12) > 10% Power Non regulated > 4% Natural Gas Regulated Area Business Construction of additional 2,105 km of NG retail network Additional 45 M m3 of underground storage capacity Construction of 800 MW CCGT Execution of wind power pipeline NG supply margin compression NG supply margin in line w/ Spanish market Regulated activities accounting for more than 50% of G&P EBITDA NG supply margin compression due to new environment in Portuguese market 15 Outlook 2012

16 CAPEX PLAN TO SUPPORT DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH Capex ~ 5.3bn EBITDA CAGR: >12% >1,7x R&M 56% G&P 18% 1x E&P 26% D/E: < 1 Payout: 50% Strong and trustable capital structure Stable dividend policy 16 Outlook 2012

17 CHALLENGING PLAN TO BE DELIVERED Large resource still to be certified +1,3 Bn bbl EBITDA growth above top of the sector > 12%/year and higher portfolio integration reduces systematic risk 17 Outlook 2012

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