Material risks to sustainable low carbon infrastructure transitions
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1 School SRI & IRI of something FACULTY FACULTIES OF OF OTHER ENVIRONMENT & ENGINEERING Material risks to sustainable low carbon infrastructure transitions Jonathan Busch (2,1) Phil Purnell (1), Julia Steinberger (2), Katy Roelich (1,2), David Dawson (1,2), Ruairi Revell (1) (1)! Institute for Resilient Infrastructure, School of Civil Engineering (2)! Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment
2 Introduction!
3
4
5 Sketch by Foster + Partners
6 Embedding new low CO 2 technology introduces critical materials into infrastructure:!!!! e.g. Nd - motors/generators for wind turbines & electric vehicles Not just elements: e.g. aggregates Scale of infrastructure means that change in demand can be a step-change: Multiples, not fractions Previously abundant materials may become critical
7 l re teria a M Criticality Model s ial i tu st ub bility er a ov t Poten ec upti on index R tio ns pl yd isr Technology mix up Material intensity quirements (K g) S Properties Local properties Technology options Material data Strategy/ Technology Exposure to disruption
8 The Model!
9 ! Model Framework! PURPOSE:" OUTCOME:" " " "understand the stocks and flows of materials in infrastructure." "Identify where/when supply risks appear and what interventions can mitigate against them. "
10 ! Model Framework! Three key features:" " "1. Infrastructure " " "focused on the scale and complex technological basis of "infrastructure." "2. Dynamic " " "to enable a dynamic assessment of criticality." "3. Hierarchical!!!to allow analysis of recovery and substitution of materials and "technologies."
11 Infrastructure In-use Stock Technology Uptake Structure Virgin Inflow In-use Stock Waste Recovery Component Virgin Inflow In-use Stock Waste Recovery Material Material Mix Virgin Inflow In-use Stock Waste Recovery
12 Low Carbon Vehicles! in the! Leeds City Region!
13 The Economics of Low Carbon Cities A Mini-Stern Review for the Leeds City Region Andy Gouldson, Niall Kerr, Corrado Topi, Ellie Dawkins, Johan Kuylenstierna, Richard Pearce. C 2 Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy
14 Figure 1: Baselines and Analysis of Price Effects, Grid Decarbonisation and Cost Effective, Cost Neutral and Realistic Potential 100 Emissions (LCR Emissions in 1990 = 100%) Baseline emissions Demand reduction from price effects Reduction from price effects and grid improvements Cost effective measures Cost neutral measures Realistic potential 18% LCR actions 42% Year
15 ! Transport Sector!! Carbon emissions reduction of 2.5% between 1990 and 2022, and:! " the carbon savings available through the widespread adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles are by far the most significant.!! " The Economics of Low Carbon Cities, Gouldson A. et al."
16 ! Technologies! Vehicles Internal Combustion Engine Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Electric Catalytic Converter NiMH Battery NdFeB Motor Li-ion Battery Platinum Neodymium Cobalt Lithium
17 ! Lithium! >80% of global lithium reserves are in Chile and China.! Risk Lists:!! BGS 6.7/10 AEA/Defra High Risk EU Critical Raw Materials Not Included
18 ! Neodymium! The US and the EU asked Beijing to clarify its policy on mineral exports after China stopped shipping to Japan. The stoppage followed a spat between China and Japan last month over islands whose ownership is disputed.
19 ! Scenario: Business as Usual (BAU)! ! ! Vehicle sales! ! ! ICE Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles 50000! 0! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! Year! 2016! 2017! 2018! 2019! 2020! 2021! 2022!
20 ! Scenario: Ambitious (Amb)! Vehicle sales! ICE Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Electric Vehicles Year!
21
22 ! Results: Lithium demand! 80! Lithium (g/yr)! 70! 60! 50! 40! 30! 20! Amb Low Amb High Current National Average 10! 0! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016! 2017! 2018! 2019! 2020! 2021! Year!
23 ! Results: Neodymium demand! 45! Neodymium (g/yr)! 40! 35! 30! 25! 20! 15! 10! BAU Low BAU High Amb Low Amb High Current National Average 5! 0! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016! 2017! 2018! 2019! 2020! 2021! Year!
24 ! Results: Neodymium stocks! ! ! Neodymium (kg)! ! ! ! ! ! ! BAU Low! BAU High! Amb Low! Amb High! ! 0! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016! 2017! 2018! 2019! 2020! 2021! 2022! Year!
25 Some Conclusions!
26 ! Key outcomes!! Step changes in Lithium and Neodymium demand on the order of current consumption.!!! Short timescale of lithium demand increase may cause problems for supply.!! Significant resources of Neodymium and Lithium will be in in-use technologies.!! Technological solutions to climate change bring their own problems.!
27 ! Future work!! Vulnerability analysis based on dynamic demand and geopolitical factors.!! Potential for recovery in reducing future demand.!!! Work with technology stocks and flows recovery of components for re-use. (e.g. magnets not neodymium)!! Expanded system boundaries include renewable generation with transport.!
28 Thanks! Contact: Web: sure-infrastructure.leeds.ac.uk!
29
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