Urban Integrated Assessment: Spatial Analytical Methods & Tools

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1 Urban Integrated Assessment: Spatial Analytical Methods & Tools Stuart Barr 1 Alistair Ford 1, Richard Dawson 1, Chris Kilsby 1, Jim Hall 2, Katie Jenkins 2, Michael Batty 3 1 School of Civil Engineering & Geosciences and Centre for Earth Systems Engineering, Newcastle University. 2 Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University 3 Centere for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London

2 Transforming Urban System Futures Cities focal points of consumption and emissions: 50% global population ~80% global GHG emissions Cities concentrations of vulnerability to chronic climate stress and extremes: Flooding Water scarcity Heat Air quality, health, biodiversity etc. To adapt to these hazards we require analytical tools that allow improved urban design today and into the future. UIAF An Urban Integrated Assessment Facility!

3 Demographic scenarios City-scale climate scenarios Centre for Earth Systems The Urban Integrated Assessment Facility MDM-E3 Multi-sector city-scale economics module Dynamic resource interactions between sectors Specialist energy sector module Temperature Precipitation Sea level rise Storm surge Greenhouse gas emissions assessment module Multi-sectoral emissions accounting tool Detailed sub-modules for transport (personal and freight) Analyse of city-scale energy policies Urban Land Use module Employment Multi-modal transport Developed land cover Population Land use planning constraints and attractors Climate impacts assessment and adaptation planning Analyse risks of Flooding Drought Urban heat and health impacts Test adaptation options Interface for testing of policy options Working with key London stakeholders

4 Urban Integrated Assessment: Spatial Land-Use Components Economic Scenarios LUTM Transport Scenarios Planning Scenarios UDM

5 Land-Use Transport Model (LUTM) Employment first disaggregated From economic model employment sectors. Using attractors and constraints Future development scenarios Population model Based on Lowry s model from 1964 Population linked to employment across zones Each person lives in one zone and works in one zone Employment and population linked by transport network Employment drives population movements Attractors and constraints Available land & floor space Availability of employment. Accessibility to employment Planning policies Local services

6 Transport Model: Generalised Cost Computed from modal transport networks Road (car) Rail Light Rail Bus Takes into account multiple factors Network distance Average travel speed Fuel or ticket costs Service frequency Allows assessment of policy options Infrastructure improvements Road user charging

7 Transport Model: Generalised Cost Gcar = (Vwk * A) + T + D*VOC/(occ*VOT) + PC/(occ*VOT) Access time to road network (walk to car) weighted by perception of walking Travel time in car (from distance along network and speed (TfL report)) Vehicle operation costs (fuel and nonfuel) over the distance travelled Number of occupants and Value of Time Parking costs and Congestion Charge G PT = (V wk * A) + V wt * W + T +F/VOT + I Access time to public transport network (walk to stop/station) weighted by perception of walking Waiting time for service weighted by perception of waiting Actual travel time on service Fare paid, converted to time by Value of Time Interchange time Not modelled as mode changing not allowed.

8 London Road Network Generalised Cost Minutes

9 Transport Infrastructure Analysis Transport Infrastructure Scenarios accessibility improvements from Heathrow with the construction of Crossrail

10 Baseline 2100 Eastern axis Centralisation 2100 Sub-urbanisation 2100

11 Baseline 2100 Eastern axis 2100 Centralisation 2100 Sub-urbanisation 2100

12 UDM: Urban Development Model Population Urban Development

13 UDM: Development Suitability Proximity Attractors Attainment Attractors Planning Attractors Weight Weight Weight Constraints Final Development Suitability

14 UDM: CA Simulation of Development Development Suitability Urban Development

15 UDM & Future Spatial Planning Floodplain Constrained Unconstrained development

16 ARCADIA Integrated networks. Modal interchanges. Capacity and congestion. Network disruption. Delays as costs to business. Economy Variables Cost to Industry Business Interruption Physical Damage Calculation Cost to Residents Spatial Employment (aggregated sectors) Fine Scale Location of Employment Impact by Weather Event Population Locations Supply Disruption Climate Variables Extreme Weather Events Map Spatially Transport Network Infrastructure Damage Labour Disruption Recovery

17 Climate Hazard, Transport Disruption & Economic Cost

18 Rail/Tube Disruption by Heat Events

19 Speed (Km/h) Centre for Earth Systems Flow (Vehicles) Road Disruption by Flooding

20 Summary The UIAF allows the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in cities using modular spatial simulation. Downscaling climate change impacts and socio-economic changes to a fine scale allows an understanding of the patterns of vulnerability. Linking simulations of global economics, spatial interaction modelling, cellular automata development prediction and impact assessment allows the exploration of the implications of planning decisions and an understanding of the relative merits of different strategies. ARCADIA extending integrated impact assessment modelling capabilities and investigating questions of the fragility and adaptation options of London in relation to economics, land use development and transport options.

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