Financiamiento para la transicion a una economia verde Ensenanzas de Rio + 20 para Mexico Noviembre

Transcription

1 Financiamiento para la transicion a una economia verde Ensenanzas de Rio + 20 para Mexico Noviembre Walter Vergara Chief Climate Change and Sustainability Division Inter-American Development Bank

2 Outline The costs of climate destabilization in the region The challenge to move to a low carbon economy IDB s plan of action Moving ahead, emblematic investments and future needs

3 The costs of climate destabilization in the region Major physical impacts (destabilization of hydrology; glacier retreat; sea level rise; increase in extreme weather events; reduction of agricultural yields; collapse of ecosystems; increased exposure to disease) Large economic consequences (IDB estimate: $80-$105 billion/year by 2050)

4 The costs of climate destabilization in the region But, while not addressing all impacts, adaptation is cost effective ($1 in adaptation prevents up to $4 in economic consequences)

5 The costs of climate destabilization in the region What needs to be done? Protect water supply and quality Make coastal zone management climate resilient Adapt agriculture Deploy ecosystem based adaptation

6 The challenge to move to a low carbon economy The region has a modest contribution to the current GHG global budget (11% of total, about 5 Gt/year) However, to meet global stabilization goals will have to go to 1 Gt/year by 2050 Carbon signal very focused (80% in land use change, power and transport) 94% in eight nations

7 The challenge to move to a low carbon economy MtCO2ee 8000 % of total tco2e per capita % of total tco2e per capita Other energy conversion Industrial feedstocks Industry Resid/commercial N2O (Agric) CH4 (Ag+waste) Transportation Electricity Land-use MtCO2e Figure 11. " Aggressive Pathway I +", Land use Other energy conversion Industrial feedstocks Industry Resid/commercial N2O (agric) CH4 (Agric+waste) Transportation Electricity BAU Aggressive Pathway Source: Version 2.0.rc1 of the GEA Scenarios Database of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and own elaboration BAU 2 tco2e per capita 2050

8 The challenge to move to a low carbon economy What needs to be done? Stop net deforestation by No net emissions from land use change by 2030, net accumulation of carbon sinks to 2050, and a 50% cut in agricultural emissions Abate final energy demand by 40% Power sector with 90% zero-carbon capacity Widespread electrification of the transport sector Tag: US$110 billion per year

9 Zero out deforestation and decarbonize agriculture Decarbonize power sector Zero carbon transport systems 80% of the problem of emissions in the region

10 IDB s plan of action: adaptation Priority one Develop response measures to maintain water supply in key basins Make coastal zone management climate resilient Adapt agriculture to changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns Deploy ecosystem based adaptation

11 IDB s plan of action: Mitigation Support efforts to avoid deforestation and promote low carbon practices in agriculture Support efforts to decarbonize power and transport sectors Large scale deployment of renewable energy Market entry of promising new technologies Reduce barriers for private sector investment Low carbon high capacity urban transport systems

12 Adaptation Plan for Grijalva Basin in Mexico Value proposition/transformative opportunity 40% of all runoffs in Mexico and 30% of all hidro power generation. The hydrology in the basin is destabilizing: year floods in the last 20 years. Impacts on settlements and economic activities are not yest controlled The costs to the States of Tabasco and the border area with Guatemala have exceeded 4% of GDP Objective Identify adaptation responses to the impacts of climate change in power generation, water supply, infrastructure, and land use. Use results to structure an adaptation operation Financials Project size 400 Million SECCI investment $1.0M Climate Funding $100M IDB Finance $100M In conceptual stage Status 12

13 Adaptation in Fishing sector in Peru Oportunidad de transformación Peru 10% world s of fish catch Fisheries account for 3% of GDP Fisheries are being afected by changes in sea surface temperature and dynamics of the Von Humboldt current. Objective Design and implement pilot adaptation measures for eventual scale up Status Project concept approved by Adaptation Fund Climate funding (AF) SECCI Financing US$7 million US$0.5 million 13

14 Bioclimate Fund in Peru Value proposition/transformative opportunity 20% of the carbon emissions in Latin America and 56% of the emissions in Peru are linked to land use change (largely deforestation). The piedmont areas of the eastern ridge of the Andes, in particular in Peru provides the habitat for the highest concentration of biodiversity and high carbon storage in the Planet. Uncontrolled deforestation and development process, in sensitive areas may threaten its large biological and climate capital. Objective Stop and revert the deforestation and land degradation process in the most vulnerable areas of influence of the IOH, Enhancement of carbon stocks and other environmental services in the region of IOH Financials Project size 200 Million SECCI investment $2.0M Climate Funding $100M In conceptual stage Status IDB Finance $20M Others $80M 14

15 Large Scale Deployment: Atacama CSP Plant (100MW) Chile Value proposition/transformative opportunity Promote use of solar energy in the Atacama desert, a region with the highest solar radiation levels in the world (3150 kwh/m2-y vs ave 1200 kwj/m2-y in Germany) Scale up incentives for barrier removal for use of solar energy technologies Entry of solar will offset need for fossil additions to power sector, delay investments in hydro in fragile south. Entry of Low Carbon Technology would transform power sector in Chile have replication potential in Peru Need for concessional finance Concessional financing will be catalytic to improve the mix of IDB long term debt and equity to dramatically reduce the cost of energy produced by the project and thereby attract mining companies Need to reduce gap in specific investment costs vis a vis coal option Status Chile s Investment Plan for Clean Technology Fund (CTF) endorsed on May 3, 2012; approval for funds September 2012 Project size SECCI investment Financials 100MW $0.8M Secured climate funding $100M (CTF+ CCF) IDB Finance $200M KfW Others Projected GHG emission reductions $130M $170M 10 million tco2e first 10 years 15

16 Geothermal Risk Management Instruments - Regional Value proposition/transformative opportunity Geothermal plants are the most reliable, and among the most economical, renewable energy sources Latin American geothermal potential exceeds 10 GW - some countries could be 100% geothermal Technical assistance needed for pre-investment geoscientific surface surveys, temperature gradient surveys, field modeling, and support for exploratory drilling Finance needed for drilling risk guarantees / insurances during early stage development Need for concessional finance Developing geothermal plants is inherently risky-high investment costs in mapping, geological studies, test and confirmation drilling can make up % of total project costs - before production is assured Facility could reduce risks by introducing contingent loans repayable against successful development of geothermal field. Under preparation Status Potential project size Financials 200MW SECCI support $2M Climate Finance $100M Projected GHG emission reductions +/-10 million tco2e first 10 years 16

17 Zero Carbon Transport High Capacity Electric Buses in Colombia Value proposition/transformative opportunity Transport sector is growing the fastest in the region in terms of GHG emissions. Latin-America is a leader in the adoption of (BRT) systems Most countries have a low-carbon energy matrix that could support the de-carbonization of transport systems Low quality fuel results in poor air quality and risks to public health Set incentives to operators to adopt vehicles with better efficiency standards and to scrap obsolete fleets Introduction of battery driven articulated buses would transform transport sector and become a big step toward low carbon economies Need for concessional sector finance Technology needs to be tested under operational conditions Risks to the early adoption of the technology need to be managed Deployment of the technology would require financing significant incremental costs Status GEF Project registered, Investment Program under preparationp Potential project size SECCI investment (*) Risk Capital Other lenders and equity Projected GHG emission reductions Financials buses US$5M US$20M US$8M 17

18 Chile: Pilot for Marine Energy Deployment Value proposition/transformative opportunity Chile has the highest wave energy potential in the world and great tidal potential (164GW raw wave potential compared to 16GW installed overall power capacity). Pilot projects with commercial contracts signed in EU, US. More than 10 technologies entering commercial phase. Potential UK-Chile technology development partnership. Supply of firm capacity to Chile s energy needs. Objective Facilitate Market entry of promising new technology Financials Potential project size SECCI Support Other 1MW US$2 million US$4 million 18

19 Way forward Tie all investments to Action Plan Give priority to adaptation; focus mitigation Enable de use of new financial instruments Support large scale climate investments

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