Materials Scarcity. From global challenge to a company's perpsective. Ton Bastein / Niels van Loon

Transcription

1 From global challenge to a company's perpsective

2 Stelling 1 2

3 Stelling 2 3

4 Stelling 3 4

5 7 Metals/minerals scarcity on the agenda

6 9 Causes of raw materials scarcity Economic causes Increasing demand (population x wealth): Increasing prices and increasing volatility Depleted resources require (much) more water and energy Physical causes Steep demand increases for hi-tech Many critical metals are byproducts Geopolitical causes Unevenly distributed Strategic behaviour rising economies

7 10 Metals 2030 : demand v production (Source: Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT) / Fraunhofer ISI, 2009) (byproduct of aluminium) (byproduct of tin) (often byproduct of iron) (byproduct of zinc) (often byproduct of uranium)

8 11 Chinese export quota on Rare Earth Elements China produces 97% of REE 120 t in 2010 Demand strongly increases: Permanent magnets Batteries Solid state lighting Export dropped: 60 t (2008) 48 t (2009) (-20%) 31t (2010/11) (-31%)

9 13 (Re)Actions of stakeholders: governments Relevant for me? Risk analysis: Risk = f(probability, effect) Mitigate risks Japan Securing supplies Stockpiling Ambitious R&D program US Stockpiling (DoD) R&D incentive Secure/increase supply Reduce/change demand

10 The situation in the EU Raw Materials Initiative Report June 2010 Risk assessment based on supply risk and economic relevance 14

11 15 The situation in The EU Raw Materials Initiative: Recommendations: Update data on raw materials Increase supply by Stimulation recycling and substitution Active mining policy Secure supply by: International diplomacy Aimed at free trade Netherlands: Grondstoffennotitie (July 2011) Diplomacy, international cooperation Opportunities: recycling, deep sea mining

12 Vraag 16

13 17 (Re)Actions of stakeholders Relevant for me? Risk analysis: Risk = f(probability, effect) Detectablility Analog to FMEA Probablilty approach Effect Mitigate risks Secure/increase supply Reduce/change demand

14 18 Awareness Scarce materials are in: My Product? My production process? What is my position in the value chain (typically at the end) What tools are available? REACH Value Chain Analyses Cost of Ownership Analyses

15 19 Example: Cost of Ownership TNO developed a calculation model to analyse present and future costs and material consumption Definition: Total Production Costs COO Number of Good Units produced Fixed Costs Operational Costs Cost of non Yield

16 21 Our approach: Technology an knowledge driven Bottom up Approach Process Analyses Fixed Costs Process 1 Process 2 Process 3 Process 4 Operational Costs Process n Cost of Non-Yield

17 22 Our approach: Technology an knowledge driven Bottom up Approach Process Analyses Detailed cost breakdown Identify cost drivers Alternative use: Optimisation Sensitivity Analyses What-if Scenarios process Euro / GPU

18 23 Our approach: Technology an knowledge driven Bottom up Approach Process Analyses Detailed cost breakdown Identify cost drivers Alternative use: Optimisation Sensitivity Analyses What-if Scenarios Macro economical/ Environmental Energy Balance Scarcity Supply chain Euro / GPU Kilogram / GPU Liter / GPU kwh / GPU

19 24 Showcase: CIGS zonnecellenproductie Costs of Non-yield 8% Fixed Costs 17% Raw Materials 57% Operationa l Costs 18% Costs of Non-yield Raw Materials Operational Costs Fixed Costs

20 25 CIGS: Material Cost Breakdown Copper 1% Gallium 2%

21 26 CIGS: Scarcity of materials Element Gross Consumption [ton/gwp] Molybdenum 31.6 Cupper 44.8 Indium 60.8 Gallium 12.4

22 27 CIGS: Scarcity of materials Element Gross Consumption [ton/gwp] 2010 Production* [tons] % of 10 production Molybdenum % Cupper % Indium % Gallium % * US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, Primary and secundary production are included.

23 28 Material utilisation Example: Indium consumption: 60,8 t / GWp

24 29 Material utilisation Example: Indium consumption: 60,8 t / GWp

25 30 Material utilisation Example: Indium consumption: 60,8 t / GWp

26 Costprice Index 31 Sensitivity to Market prices Indium Cost price dependancy to Indium target prices 2,0 1,0 Bron: 0, Indium price index

27 32 Sensitivity to Market prices Indium Bron:

28 33 Sensitivity to Market prices Indium Bron:

29 35 Risk Analysis Analysis: Do my products/investment plans require critical materials? Effect: What happens if supply is suddenly disrupted? Can I still produce my product? What happens when price is 2x, 10x,..? Probability: Did I experience supply difficulties/steep price hikes/ last x years? General trends in supply/demand.

30 37 Risk mitigation: secure/increase demand: Mine raw materials yourself: vertical integration (Oct 2010) Toyota Tsusho Corp., will team up with Vietnamese companies to mine rare. (September 2011) Siemens is said to have taken a share in Australian mining corporation Lynas to secure supply of raw materials

31 38 Risk mitigation: secure/increase demand: The case for recycling and circular economy Bron: jaarverslag Van Gansewinkel

32 39 Risk Mitigation: reduce/change demand Change the business models: From selling goods To selling services Longer lifetime Lifetime is determined on economical grounds. The Ingenieur is essential part of multidisciplinary team to come to this mindset. Substitution development programs: With abundant (non-toxic) materials Sufficient functionality Long-lead times? Both risk mitigation and business opportunity!? Resource efficiency

33 40 Substitutes being worked on Toyota working on new rare-earth-free electric motor technology TNO and Holst are working on Solar cells without exotic elements

34 42 Metals Scarcity: What s your (re)action? If demand of metal minerals is likely to outpace supply This will influence (stable) supply and (stable) prices Do these critical minerals play a role in my products? What is going on? Do I have updated, objective and predictive information What do price hikes and supply disruptions mean for my business? What actions should I take? To mitigate risks And/or to seize the opportunities

35 43 Thank you for your attention