Car Carriers ISSUE DATE 2012

Transcription

1 Car Carriers ISSUE DATE 2012

2 Contents 1 Executive Global vehicle Summary 2 manufacturing and sales 7 LNG Shipping 2 An overview 01 LNG Demand 3 Major manufacturing countries 01 LNG Terminal Major motor vehicle producers 4 05 Competing Who owns what? fuel prices 095 Global car sales and outlook LNG High Projects & heavy LNG Trends Projects in mining, agriculture 44 and Risk construction Index Contracts Mining machinery Farming machinery LNG Global Trade seaborne and Prices vehicle 10 trade 13 Natural Gas Prices 10 Thailand the Detroit of the East 13 LNG Prices 12 Japan volume deepsea and Crude shortsea Oil trader Prices China slowly making an impact 20 Coal Prices 14 South Korea on the march 23 LNG Europe Trade too many issues The Listings car carrier fleet Supply Methodology of tonnage Newbuildings Recovery of Western economies Development of emerging market economies 50 Trading patterns 50 1 cont d 3 USA LNG Shipping struggling to maintain its 28 position 31 India LNG Fleet making its presence felt Brazil LNG Orderbook and Mexico the Latin 30 partners 35 Australia Demolitions and South Africa 32 South Freight Sea Rates traders Turkey the truck exporter 37 LNG Shipping Outlook 37 Secondhand vehicle trades Appendices Automotive logistics (provided Inbound logistics in Excel) Outbound logistics 53 WWASA the leader in its field 53 NYK the strategist 55 MOL the ideal partner 56 Research 5 team Lead Research cont d Analyst: Shresth Sharma shresth@drewry.co.uk Other Research specialised Analyst: Krishnendu providers Dutta 56 dutta@drewry.co.uk BLG 56 GEFCO Editorial Director: Patrick Neylan 57 neylan@drewry.co.uk Autologic Holdings 58 Groupe CAT 58 DFDS and others 59 Looking ahead 59 Drewry 6 Maritime Research Christopher Street, London EC2A 2BS Tel: Ports +44 (0) and terminals Fax: +44 (0) Overview 60 enquiries@drewry.co.uk Investment needs 60 Public Private initiatives 60 Case study: India 60 SE Asia / Latin America 61 Africa / Russia 63 Planning and environment 63 Research team Lead Analyst: Kari Reinikainen Alan Lam enquiries@drewry.co.uk Editorial Director: Patrick Neylan neylan@drewry.co.uk Drewry Maritime Research Christopher Street, London EC2A 2BS Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) enquiries@drewry.co.uk

3 TABLES TABLE 1.1 MAJOR ASIA PACIFIC MOTOR VEHICLE PRODUCTION OUTPUTS...05 TABLE 1.2 CURRENTLY GLOBAL POSITIONS OF MAJOR CHINESE MOTOR VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS...09 TABLE 1.3 CURRENT GLOBAL POSITIONS OF MAJOR INDIAN VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS...09 TABLE 1.4 THE JIGSAW OF MOTOR MANUFACTURER INTERESTS...09 TABLE 2.1 FORECAST FOR MOTOR VEHICLE SALES AND PERCENTAGE INCREASES IN RUSSIA...17 TABLE 2.2 JAPANESE NEW MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO SOUTHEAST ASIA...19 TABLE 2.3 JAPANESE NEW MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO THE MIDDLE EAST AND TURKEY...19 TABLE 2.4 CHINESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORT TO SELECTED SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRIES...20 TABLE 2.5 CHINESE VEHICLE EXPORTS TO SELECTED SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES...21 TABLE 2.6 CHINESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES...21 TABLE 2.7 CHINESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO UAE, SAUDI ARABIA AND EGYPT...23 TABLE 2.8 KOREAN NEW VEHICLE PRODUCTION AND SALES FORECAST...23 TABLE 2.9 SOUTH KOREAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORT TREND TO SELECTED SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRIES...24 TABLE 2.10 SOUTH KOREAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORT TRENDS TO SELECTED MIDDLE EAST COUNTRIES AND TURKEY...24 TABLE 2.11 SOUTH KOREAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO SELECTED SOUTHEAST ASIA COUNTRIES...24 TABLE 2.12 SOUTH KOREAN MOTOR VEHICLES EXPORTS TO MAJOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES...26 TABLE 2.13 GERMAN SEABORNE MOTOR VEHICLES EXPORTS TO MAJOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES...28 TABLE 2.14 GERMAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO SELECTED COUNTRIES...29 TABLE 2.15 FORECAST FOR TURKEY S MOTOR VEHICLE SALES...30 TABLE 2.16 MAJOR UK SEABORNE MOTOR VEHICLE DESTINATIONS...30 TABLE 2.17 UK MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO BRICS COUNTRIES...30 TABLE 2.18 MAJOR SEABORNE TRADE FLOWS OF MOTOR VEHICLES FROM THE UK TO EU HUBS...30 TABLE 2.19 MAJOR SEABORNE TRADE FLOWS OF MOTOR VEHICLES FROM EU TO THE UK...31 TABLE 2.20 MAJOR US MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS...33 TABLE 2.21 TRENDS OF INDIAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO SELECTED LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES...34 TABLE 2.22 AFRICAN MAJOR VEHICLE EXPORT MARKETS...38 TABLE 2.23 TURKISH PASSENGER CAR EXPORTS TO MAIN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES...38 TABLE 2.24 TURKISH TRUCK EXPORTS TO MAIN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES...39 TABLE 2.25 A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF JAPANESE SECONDHAND VEHICLE EXPORT TO INDONESIA...40 TABLE 2.26 A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF JAPANESE SECONDHAND VEHICLE EXPORT TO MALAYSIA...40 TABLE 2.27 A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF JAPANESE SECONDHAND VEHICLE EXPORTS TO NEW ZEALAND...40 TABLE 2.28 A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF JAPANESE SECONDHAND VEHICLE EXPORT TO AUSTRALIA...40 TABLE 4.1 FORECAST FLEET GROWTH TABLE 4.2 SCRAPPING OF CAR CARRIERS, 2009-AUG TABLE 4.3 NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK FOR VARIOUS SHIP TYPES...49 TABLE 4.4 MAJOR CAR CARRIER CAPACITIES...51 TABLE 5.1 MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS EXPORTS BY SELECTED COUNTRIES...53 TABLE 5.2 EXAMPLE OF WWASA CONTROLS AND ALLIANCES...55 TABLE 5.3 SCALE OF YUSEN LOGISTICS...55 TABLE 6.1 INDIA S MAJOR AUTO HUBS...62 i

4 FIGURES FIGURE 1.1 GLOBAL MOTOR VEHICLE OUTPUTS...01 FIGURE 1.2 CAR PRODUCTION IN MAJOR MANUFACTURING COUNTRIES...02 FIGURE 1.3 COMMERCIAL VEHICLE PRODUCTION IN MAJOR MANUFACTURING COUNTRIES...02 FIGURE 1.4 MOTOR VEHICLE PRODUCTIONS BY REGION...03 FIGURE 1.5 PROPORTION OF MOTOR VEHICLE PRODUCTION, FIGURE 1.6 PROPORTION OF MOTOR VEHICLE PRODUCTION, FIGURE 1.7 PROPORTION OF MOTOR VEHICLE PRODUCTION, FIGURE 1.8 OUTPUTS OF TOP 20 VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS, FIGURE 1.9 OUTPUTS OF TOP 20 VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS, FIGURE 1.10 OUTPUTS OF TOP 20 VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS, FIGURE 1.11 OUTPUT COMPOSITIONS OF TOP 20 VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS, FIGURE 1.12 OUTPUT COMPOSITIONS OF TOP 20 VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS, FIGURE 1.13 OUTPUT COMPOSITIONS OF TOP 20 VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS, FIGURE 1.14 GLOBAL CAR SALES...11 FIGURE 1.15 US CAR SALES...11 FIGURE 1.16 JAPANESE CAR SALES...11 FIGURE 1.17 WESTERN EUROPEAN CAR SALES...11 FIGURE 1.18 GERMAN CAR SALES...11 FIGURE 1.19 EASTERN EUROPEAN CAR SALES...11 FIGURE 1.20 RUSSIAN CAR SALES...12 FIGURE 1.21 CHINESE CAR SALES...12 FIGURE 1.22 INDIAN CAR SALES...12 FIGURE 1.23 SOUTH AMERICAN CAR SALES...12 FIGURE 1.24 BRAZILIAN CAR SALES...12 FIGURE 1.25 CAR SALE TRENDS...12 FIGURE 2.1 WORLD CAR CARRIER TRADE...13 FIGURE 2.2 GLOBAL VEHICLE IMPORTS...14 FIGURE 2.3 COMPARATIVE STUDY OF MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS...14 FIGURE 2.4 THAI MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORT TREND...15 FIGURE 2.5 THAI MAIN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORT DESTINATIONS...15 FIGURE 2.6 JAPANESE TOTAL MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS...16 FIGURE 2.7 JAPANESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO BRICS COUNTRIES...16 FIGURE 2.8 JAPANESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO EUROPE...16 FIGURE 2.9 FORECAST FOR RUSSIAN MOTOR VEHICLE SALES...17 FIGURE 2.10 RUSSIAN VEHICLE SALES, FIGURE 2.11 FORECAST RUSSIAN VEHICLE SALES, FIGURE 2.12 JAPANESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO USA AND CANADA...18 FIGURE 2.13 JAPANESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO SOUTH AMERICA...18 FIGURE 2.14 JAPANESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA...19 ii

5 FIGURES FIGURE 2.15 JAPANESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND...19 FIGURE 2.16 JAPAN S MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO AFRICA...20 FIGURE 2.17 CHINESE TOTAL MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS...20 FIGURE 2.18 NORTH AMERICAN IMPORTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES FROM CHINA...21 FIGURE 2.19 CHINESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND...22 FIGURE 2.20 SOUTH AFRICAN IMPORTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES FROM CHINA...22 FIGURE 2.21 CHINESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO TURKEY...22 FIGURE 2.22 CHINESE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO IRAN...22 FIGURE 2.23 SOUTH KOREAN SEABORNE MOTOR VEHICLE TRADE...23 FIGURE 2.24 SOUTH KOREAN EXPORTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES...24 FIGURE 2.25 NORTH AMERICAN IMPORTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES FROM SOUTH KOREA...24 FIGURE 2.26 CHINESE REPORTED MOTOR VEHICLE IMPORTS FROM SOUTH KOREA...25 FIGURE 2.27 RUSSIAN MOTOR VEHICLE IMPORTS FROM SOUTH KOREA...25 FIGURE 2.28 SOUTH KOREAN EXPORTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES TO AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH AFRICA...25 FIGURE 2.29 EU EXPORTS OF PASSENGER CARS...27 FIGURE 2.30 EU MAJOR PASSENGER CAR EXPORT DESTINATIONS, FIGURE 2.31 EU MAJOR EXPORTS OF ALL MOTOR VEHICLE TYPES, FIGURE 2.32 COMPOSITION OF GERMAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS...28 FIGURE 2.33 GERMAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO BRICS COUNTRIES...28 FIGURE 2.34 FORECAST EUROPEAN CAR EXPORTS TO CHINA...29 FIGURE 2.35 SOME OF GERMANY S LONGER SEA ROUTE MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS...29 FIGURE 2.36 FRENCH PASSENGER CAR EXPORTS TO IRAN...31 FIGURE 2.37 USA MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS...32 FIGURE 2.38 USA MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO OTHER MAJOR EU COUNTRIES...32 FIGURE 2.39 BRICS IMPORTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES FROM THE USA...33 FIGURE 2.40 US MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO OTHER MAJOR SOUTH AMERICAN ECONOMIES...33 FIGURE 2.41 INDIAN EXPORTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES...33 FIGURE 2.42 MAJOR EU DESTINATIONS OF INDIAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS...34 FIGURE 2.43 INDIAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO BELGIUM AND THE NETHERLANDS...34 FIGURE 2.44 INDIAN EXPORTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES TO SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTRIES...34 FIGURE 2.45 SOME OF THE STRONGER TRENDS OF RECENT INDIAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS...34 FIGURE 2.46 FORECAST OF INDIAN MOTOR VEHICLE OUTPUT...35 FIGURE 2.47 BRAZIL S TOTAL MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS...35 FIGURE 2.48 MEXICO S RECENT IMPORT TREND OF MOTOR VEHICLES FROM BRAZIL...35 FIGURE 2.49 RECENT MEXICAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORT TRENDS...36 FIGURE 2.50 BRAZILIAN IMPORTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES FROM MEXICO...36 FIGURE 2.51 US AND CANADIAN MOTOR VEHICLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICO...36 FIGURE 2.52 BRAZILIAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO ARGENTINA AND GERMANY...36 FIGURE 2.53 BRAZILIAN DEEPSEA FLOWS OF MOTOR VEHICLES TO SOUTH AFRICA...36 iii

6 FIGURES FIGURE 2.54 MEXICAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO GERMANY...36 FIGURE 2.55 MEXICAN EXPORTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES TO ARGENTINA, COLOMBIA AND CHILE...37 FIGURE 2.56 AUSTRALIAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO NEW ZEALAND...37 FIGURE 2.57 AUSTRALIAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO SAUDI ARABIA AND UAE...37 FIGURE 2.58 SOUTH AFRICAN MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO NIGERIA...37 FIGURE 2.59 SOUTH AFRICAN GOODS VEHICLE EXPORTS TO ALGERIA...38 FIGURE 2.60 TURKISH CAR AND TRUCK EXPORTS...38 FIGURE 2.61 ESTIMATED JAPANESE SECONDHAND VEHICLE EXPORTS...39 FIGURE 2.62 COMPARATIVE VIEW OF JAPANESE SECONDHAND MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS TO THE PHILIPPINES...39 FIGURE 2.63 EXAMPLE OF JAPANESE SECONDHAND VEHICLE EXPORTS DURING TWO MONTHS IN FIGURE 2.64 SOUTH KOREAN SEABORNE SECONDHAND VEHICLE EXPORTS...40 FIGURE 2.65 ESTIMATED AND FORECAST SEABORNE SECONDHAND VEHICLE FLOWS EX-EU...41 FIGURE 2.66 NORTH AMERICAN SEABORNE SECONDHAND MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORT FORECAST...41 FIGURE 2.67 FORECAST FOR CHINESE SECONDHAND MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS...41 FIGURE 2.68 FORECAST FOR INDIAN SECONDHAND MOTOR VEHICLE EXPORTS...42 FIGURE 2.69 ESTIMATED NUMBER OF CARS TRANSPORTED DEEPSEA...42 FIGURE 3.1 REUTERS/JEFFERIES COMMODITIES INDEX...44 FIGURE 3.2 MOST OF THE GROWTH IN AGRICULTURE AND CONSTRUCTION BETWEEN WILL HAPPEN IN THE BRICS COUNTRIES...44 FIGURE 3.3 WORLDWIDE CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (GROSS OUTPUT, 2008 $ BILLION)...44 FIGURE 3.4 CHINESE BULLDOZER IMPORTS...44 FIGURE 3.5 CONSTRUCTION SPENDING 2020 ABSOLUTE, TOP FIGURE 3.6 BRAZILIAN BULLDOZER IMPORTS...45 FIGURE 3.7 INDONESIAN IMPORTS OF MACHINERY TO SORT, SCREEN MINERALS...45 FIGURE 3.8 SOUTH AFRICAN BULLDOZER IMPORTS...45 FIGURE 3.9 THAI TRACTOR EXPORTS...45 FIGURE 3.10 CHINESE COMBINE HARVESTER EXPORTS...46 FIGURE 4.1 BIGGEST PCTC OPERATORS...48 FIGURE 4.2 CAR-CARRIER CAPACITY UTILISATION...48 FIGURE 4.3 CAR CARRIERS IN LAY-UP, FIGURE 4.4 TIMECHARTER EARNINGS PER DAY 12 MONTHS CHARTER...48 FIGURE 4.5 PCTC FLEET AGE PROFILE, AUGUST FIGURE 4.6 CARGO TYPE PER QUARTER, WWASA SHIP OPERATING COMPANIES...50 FIGURE 4.7 CAR SHIPMENT GROWTH/DECLINE BETWEEN 1H08 AND 1H FIGURE 4.8 CAR EXPORT VOLUMES FROM EUROPE TO CHINA WWASA LIFTINGS...50 FIGURE 4.9 MAJOR CAR CARRIER CAPACITY AND AGE PROFILE...51 FIGURE 5.1 TRENDS OF MOTOR PARTS EXPORTS FROM JAPAN, GERMANY AND SOUTH KOREA...53 FIGURE 5.2 MARKET SHARES OF MAJOR CAR CARRIER GROUPS, FIGURE 5.3 WWASA LOGISTICS SEGMENT TOTAL ADJUSTED INCOME...54 iv

7 FIGURES FIGURE 5.4 WWASA LOGISTICS SEGMENT TOTAL ADJUSTED EBIT...54 FIGURE 5.5 MOL S RECENT CAR CARRIER LOADING RESULT...56 FIGURE 5.6 MEANS OF GEFCO S MULTIMODAL VEHICLE TRANSPORTS, FIGURE 5.7 GROUPE CAT LOGISTICS SEGMENTS, FIGURE 5.8 GROUPE CAT S LOGISTICS SEGMENTS IN VALUES...58 FIGURE 6.1 PRIVATE INVESTMENTS IN PORT SECTOR, FIGURE 6.2 CAR VOLUME, PORT OF ZEEBRUGGE...63 v

8 About Drewry Research Drewry Maritime Research is the research arm of global shipping consultancy Drewry. The company has over 40 years experience in the maritime sector and employs more than 90 specialists across its offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Our market research is renowned for its quality and is trusted by industry leaders around the world to deliver impartial, robust analysis and balanced opinion. This independence, alongside our sector knowledge and expertise, sets our research apart and gives clients the rich market insight they need to make informed business decisions. Copyright Terms and Conditions Drewry owns full copyright of all its research products, covering both reports and online interactive resources. Drewry s rights and entitlements as copyright holder are protected by law in all jurisdictions. In this context, Drewry operates a simple policy of single-site and multi-site licences. All basic research products are sold on the basis of a standard licence covering a single site. The primary source of market insight, analysis and advice trusted by a global audience of maritime and shipping industry stakeholders UK Christopher Street London EC2A 2BS United Kingdom India 209 Vipul Square Sushant Lok - 1 Gurgaon India Singapore #13-02 Tower Fifteen 15 Hoe Chiang Road Singapore China Unit D01 Level 10, Shinmay Union Square Tower 2, 506 Shang Cheng Road, Pudong, Shanghai P. R. China T T T T +86 (0) enquiries@drewry.co.uk