Investment outlook in power generation in Finland

Transcription

1 Investment outlook in power generation in Finland Jukka Leskelä Finnish Energy Industries Finnish-German Energy Day Helsinki, November 23,

2 Agenda Overview on Finnish power generation capacity and demand in future Carbon neutral future and investments Political framework and plans for investments Renewables (hydro, wind, bio) Nuclear CHP 2

3 Finland some facts on energy Finland Biggest electricity consumption per capita in the EU Second largest use of primary energy per capita in the EU behind Luxembourg Coldest country in the EU = greatest heating demand / cubic meter Second biggest producer of CHP electricity in the EU Best thermal efficiency of CHP plants in EU (average 83 %) Largest user of biomass for energy production in the EU Major exporter of energy technology: 5 billion euros in 2008 No fossil fuel resources 3

4 The cheapest electricity (PPS) in EU-27 Price of electricity for households Balanced with purchasing power all taxes included Late 2008 according to Eurostat Price in PPS / 100 kwh Germany Finland Lähde: Eurostat 4

5 Electricity Consumption TWh Metal industry 8 % Chemistry industry 8 % Other industry 5 % Housing and agriculture 29 % Industry total 46 % Other comsumption total 51 % Forest industry 24 % Losses 4 % Services and building 22 % 5

6 Net Supplies of Electricity TWh Hydro power 15,6 % Wind power 0,3 % Nuclear power 27,9 % Net imports 15,0 % Condense etc 11,3 % CHP, Industry 11,7 % CHP, district heating 18,3 % 6

7 Electricity Production by Energy Sources (68.7 TWh in 2009) Coal 15,4 % Oil 0,7 % Hydro power 18,3 % Natural gas 13,4 % Wind power 0,4 % Peat 6,3 % Bio fuel 11,8 % Renewables 31 % CO2-free 63 % Nuclear power 32,9 % Waste fuels 0,9 % 7

8 Future and existing regional electricity markets in Europe Nordic UK/IE Baltic IPS/UPS CWE CEE SWE CSE SEE source: Eurelectric 8

9 Generation portfolio in Germany and in Nordic countries GERMANY n. 550 TWh/a FI SE NO DK n. 400 TWh/a Lämpövoima Ydinvoima Vesi Tuuli, aurinko Thermal power Nuclear power Hydro power Wind and solar power 9

10 Finland has a structural dependency on electricity imports Import Tuonti Vienti Export Nordic countries Pohjoismaat Venäjä Viro Russia Electricity imports and exports TWh Estonia TWh MW generation Kapasiteetti capacity Generation capacity and peak load Condensing Municipal CHP Industrial CHP Nuclear power Hydro power = peak load 10

11 Need for new power capacity (MW) Erillinen sähköntuotanto Kaukolämpö-CHP Teollisuus-CHP MW Condensing power Municipal CHP Industrial CHP Ydinvoima Capacity need Vesivoima without investments Sarja15 decisions Sarja14 Sarja Sarja Nuclear Sarja11 Hydro If the peak power demand ought to be covered by domestic production, new capacity of MW would be needed by

12 Political framework Finland s energy challenges Mitigation of climate change Reduction of greenhouse gases and increase in energy efficiency Structural dependency on electricity imports, phase-out of older power plants Major investment needs in power generation capacity Energy sources and self-sufficiency Increase of domestic and renewable energy resources Energy efficiency EU s renewable energy directive Finland s target - 38 % renewables of total final energy use by 2020 Current level around 28 % 12

13 Finnish climate change and energy strategy - key elements Government's strategy 2008, implementation by detailed decisions and legislation in 2010 Deep involvement in EU energy policy decisions Substantial increase of renewable energy by 2020 (38 % of final energy use) Especially forest based bioenergy, wind power and heat pumps Feed-in tariffs for renewables (wind, biogas, wood chips) Decrease in energy use Self-sufficiency in power generation capacity Commitment to policy of diverse energy sources and competitive prices of energy Favourable position to new nuclear build 13

14 Finnish Energy Industries Carbon neutral vision for electricity and district heating for Finland in 2050 Carbon neutral energy production Higher self-sufficiency Increased energy efficiency Total energy use will drop appr. 20 % Share of electricity in total use of energy will increase from below 30 % to almost 50 % Use of renewable and domestic energy sources will increase The national economy will strengthen; prosperity and the volume of gross domestic product will increase Purchasing power will increase more quickly than the prices of electricity and district heat 14

15 Finnish Energy Industries vision 2050 Demand for electricity in Finland Sector Electricity consumption (TWh/a) Housing Household electricity Heating of buildings Cooling of buildings 0,2 1 2 Industry Services & Public sector 15, Transport 0, Losses Total

16 Finnish Energy Industries vision 2050 Electricity generation 2050 ( TWh) More: CCS applied in large coastal thermal power plants 16 16

17 Finnish Energy Industries vision 2050 Electricity generation capacity 2050 Generation capacity 24,000 32,000 MW in 2050 Need for 19,000 27,000 MW of new capacity

18 Renewable energy potential and plans in Finland Hydro Biomass Wind 18

19 Theoretical potential of hydro power in Finland Finland's total hydropower 22,645 GWh/a, 5,127 MW (in relation to energy) 22,6 TWh/a, about MW Natural hydropower 2,858 GWh/a, 368 MW Border rivers 2,872 GWh/a, 502 MW Other hydropower available for development 891 GWh/a, 274 MW Developed hydropower 13,048 GWh/a, 3,049 MW Technically and economically significant hydropower 2,976 GWh/a, 934 MW 19

20 Technologically and economically feasible remaining potential mainly protected Technologically and economically significant hydropower 2,976 GWh/a, 934 MW (in relation to energy) Pernoonkoski, Kuusaankoski, Perhonjoki lower course, Luonionkoski 165 GWh/a, 35 MW Iijoki middle course 437 GWh/a, 113 MW Kollaja 200 GWh/a, 35 MW Vuotos 325 GWh/a, 37 MW Ounasjoki 1,210 GWh/a, 349 MW Lapuanjoki, Siikajoki, Pielisjoki 56 GWh/a, 35 MW Sierilä, Raudanjoki 282 GWh/a, 69 MW Increased output capacity in existing plants 301 GWh/a, 261 MW 20

21 Bioenergy in Finland today Use of wood biomass TWh/a Bark, wood residue chips, sawdust, stubs, recovered wood, forest chips District heat and CHP 7 TWh, industrial heat and CHP 18 TWh, condensing power 1 TWh In addition energy use of peat TWh/a energy use of black liquor 40 TWh/a (pulp industry) small combustion of wood 13 TWh/a Energy industry s wood supplies nowadays heavily dependent on forest industry NH

22 National targets for bioenergy until 2020 Forest chips up to 28 TWh(fuel) Forestry residues, stubs, small trees from forest thinning Existing level 10 TWh Will be used in CHP and district heating boilers Three support schemes Support of thinning and chipping Feed-in tariff for electricity from forest chips Level of support varies according to value of EUA Max 18 /MWhe, min 0 /MWhe when value of EUA = 23 /tco2 Feed-in tariff for new small CHP plants 22

23 Bioenergy & CHP plans Already large capacity of CHP plants and heating boilers and lot of new installations Around 50 CHP plants and 300 boilers since 2000 Increase of biomass mainly in existing capacity Estimated (max.) 50 small CHP plants (size around MWth) Investments continue in larger CHP plants Mainly replacement investments in municipalities or industrial facilities Always multifuel boilers (biomass with peat, coal etc.) 23

24 Wind power potential and national target until 2020 National target of 6 TWh Estimated capacity around 2500 MW Challenging due to the time limitations and long authorisation processes Huge amount of projects under planning Environmental impact assessment, spatial planning 24

25 Nuclear energy Government s decision in May 2010 Positive decisions of principle for 2 reactors TVO: Olkiluoto 4 ( MW) 5 alternative plant suppliers Fennovoima: one reactor (max 1800 MW) 2 alternative plant suppliers Ratification by parliament in July 2010 Clear majority (votes around for both reactors) Replacement of Loviisa nuclear units remained undecided 25

26 Attitudes towards different energy sources in electricity production 2009 (%) Wind power Bio/other.. Hydro power Nuclear power Natural gas Peat Import Oil Coal % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % Usage... increase is good now no opinion decrease Lähde: Energia-asenteet

27 Poll on nuclear attitudes since 1982 What is your general attitude towards nuclear power as energy source in Finnish conditions? % myönteiset 48 % Positive 48% kielteiset 17 % Negative 17% Gallup omnibus, telephone survey Source Finnish Energy Industries and TNS Gallup Oy

28 Change = opportunity Thank you for your attention! For more information, please contact Jukka Leskelä Finnish Energy Industries jukka.leskela@energia.fi Add. Fredrikinkatu B FI Helsinki P.O.Box 100, FI Helsinki Tel