Results for 1Q 2016 Analyst Teleconference. 5th May 2016
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- Virginia Hardy
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1 Results for 1Q 2016 Analyst Teleconference 5th May 2016
2 02 Operation 01 Market 03 Financials
3 2016 First Quarter Market Conditions Descending Refining Market Weakened Demand due to El-Nino Extra Chinese production from Teapot Refineries Weakened Diesel Cracks Appreciation in TL Ural Crude Spreads Widened Excess Crude Supply Lowered WTI / Brent Spread 2 $/v Lower Refining Environment Low price environment Support for Gasoline Growing Turkish Petroleum Market 3
4 2 Month Turkish Consumption (Million ton) 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 Diesel 2,75 2, ,3 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,1 Jet Fuel* +7.8% +17.6% 0,23 0, ,4 0,3 0,3 Gasoline +6.6% 0,20 Fuel Oil* +1,2% 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,29 0,30 0,10 0,15 0,16 0, Source: EMRA *bunker excluded. 4
5 Crude Differentials $/Barrel 1,0 0,5-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0-2,5-3,0-3,5-4,0 2,0-2,0-4,0-6,0-8, ,0 Ural Crude Differentials $/Barrel Min/Max Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Differentials Trends Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC 1,0 0,5-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0-2,5-3,0-3,5-4,0 5
6 Quarterly Crack 21,00 19,00 17,00 15,00 13,00 11,00 9,00 7,00 5,00 3,00 1,00 Gasoline 19,43 18,86 15,205 15,13 13,03 13,01 13, ,99 13,60 14,12 16,49 9,54 12,06 9,72 6,82 4,53 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q , , ,00 0 Diesel 15,31 16,12 16,29 15,22 14,58 13,59 15,67 10,71 16,97 7,90 17,96 20,94 18,88 16,73 15,83 16,39 16,36 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q , ,00 0 Jet Fuel 15,80 14,43 15,01 12,57 11,16 11,28 10,70 9,46 7,333 18,27 15,97 15,69 17,03 13,44 12,96 14,68 13,19 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q , , ,00 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q -11,81-14,27-14,42-18,76-13,90-18,92-20,24-11, ,10-13,18-15,01-15, ,72-20,91-20,39 Fuel Oil
7 Med Product / Crude Price Ratio Effect on Tupras in 1Q 1Q Product Ratio, Tüpraş Crack Margin bbl/bbl Product Yield % LPG 0,64 0,76 3,6% -0,7-0,3 Gasoline 1,24 1,45 20,1% 2,6 3,1 Naptha 0,91 1,00 1,1% -0,1 Jet Fuel 1,27 1,22 17,5% 2,5 1,3 Diesel 1,29 1,23 32,5% 5,1 2,6 Diesel ,24 1,19 0,7% 0,1 Fuel Oil 1% 0,83 0,66 0,2% Fuel Oil 3,5% 0,78 0,61 18,8% -2,2-2,5 Dated Brent Avg. $/Bbl 54,0 33,9 94,5% 7,4 4,2 Margin Differences, $/bbl -3,2 Total Charge, mn varil 50,94 Total Effect of Price Ratio, mn $ -163,33 Total Effect of Price Ratio, mn TL -480,4 Impact of Med FOB Price Ratios on Tupras Operations was - 480,4 million TL 29
8 Inventory Effect* Analysis $ million Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Jan -41,7-49,8-91,4-25,9-23,8-49,7 Feb 1 2,5 12,5-0,7 2,9 2,2 Mar -3,4 12,2 8,7 17,5 7,5 25,0 1st Quarter -35,1-35,1-70,2-9,0-13,4-22,4 *FX effect Included 8
9 Med & Tüpraş Net Margins, $/bbl 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 1,34 3,05 5,46 3,45 4th Quarter 1,41 4,42 2,76 5,82 2,92 1,72 3,84 4,56 0,30 2,03 3,54 5, ,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 3,50 1,37 3,44 1,72 3,70 1,57 1st Quarter 0,42 3,87 2,97 1,96 2,83 0,90 0,44 2,41 5,98 4,69 3,84 2, Tupras Net Med Complex Tupras Net Med Complex 12 Month 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 5,54 4,57 1,95 2,29 2,89 4,51 5,29 1,17 4,21 3,31 1,67 2,45 1,95 3,21 4,83 6, Tupras Net Med Complex
10 Margin Comparison & Inventory Effect $ / bbl Tüpraş Gross / Net Refining Margin Inventory Effect Tüpraş Clean Gross / Net Ref. Margin Med Complex Margin Q / 4.69 (0.81) / Q 8.23 / 2.81 (0.18)* 8.40 / * Hedge Operations are not considered. 10
11 Market Operations Financials 11
12 60,4 69,6 74,4 71,3 78,7 76,8 80,7 86,1 91,1 98,1 94,5 Production Capacity Utilisation (%) Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons) ,2 +15,6% 102,5 99,7 4,4 5,2 84,1 81,6 77,1 79,1 7,5 5,5 2,9 74,9 3,5 2,4 3, ,59 5,60 4,55 7,32 7,42 6,93 5,51 4,63 5, , Crude Oil Other 2 1 Min / Max 2007/ / 1q 2016 / 1q 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 12
13 Product Yields Middle Distillate Light Distillate 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 43% 47% 46% 43% 46% 46% 27% 27% 27% 26% 28% 27% 53% 52% 31% 35% 45% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 22% 21% 22% 23% 23% 21% 21% 22% 22% 21% 21% 22% 23% 22% 20% 20% 21% 22% 10% 17% 20% 19% 17% 18% 19% 21% 18% 16% 5% 0% 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 Jet Diesel 0% 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 Gasoline Naphtha Black Product Crude Oil API 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 9% 9% 8% 1% 7% 10% 12% 3% 3% 9% 19% 20% 13% 11% 17% 18% 14% 17% 15% 5% 7% 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 Fuel Oil Asphalt Coke 34,5 33,5 32,5 31,5 30,5 29,5 28,5 27,5 33,1 33,2 32,9 32,5 32,2 31,9 31,1 30,3 30, st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 13
14 Domestic Sales, million tons 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,36 0,39 0,43 0,45 Gasoline 0,49 0,46 0,52 0,52 0,54 0,60 0,45 0,44 0,50 1Q-13 1Q-14 1Q-15 1Q-16 2Q-13 2Q-14 2Q-15 3Q-13 3Q-14 3Q-15 4Q-13 4Q-14 4Q-15 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,70 0,76 0,86 1,00 Jet Fuel 0,92 0,98 1,26 1,11 1,18 1,50 0,81 0,91 1,13 1Q-13 1Q-14 1Q-15 1Q-16 2Q-13 2Q-14 2Q-15 3Q-13 3Q-14 3Q-15 4Q-13 4Q-14 4Q-15 2,8 2,4 2,0 1,6 1,2 0,8 0,4 1,67 1,48 1,73 2,27 2,32 Diesel 1,66 2,23 2,20 1,83 2,62 1Q-13 1Q-14 1Q-15 1Q-16 2Q-13 2Q-14 2Q-15 1,92 1,73 2,59 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,20 0,23 0,27 0,43 Asphalt 0,74 0,42 0,63 1,24 0,79 1,08 0,75 0,51 0,90 1Q-13 1Q-14 1Q-15 1Q-16 2Q-13 2Q-14 2Q-15 3Q-13 3Q-14 3Q-15 4Q-13 4Q-14 4Q-15 3Q-13 3Q-14 3Q-15 4Q-13 4Q-14 4Q-15 14
15 Opet Station Numbers Opet Sunpet March In February, White Product market share is 17,1 percent. Total market share, including white and black product, was 17,06 percent. 15
16 Market Operations Financials 16
17 Profitability Indicators, Full Year & 1Q st Q (%) Full Year ,97 33,89-37 Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 98,99 52,46-47,01 33,14 31,14-6,0 Processed Crude API 32,29 31,35-2,91 73,75 72,94-0,8 White Product Yield, (%) 72,20 75,40 3,20 5,98 3,84-35,8 Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 1,95 4,83 148,2 4,69 2,81-4 Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 3,21 6,47 101,6 42,3 92,9 120 Operating Profit, (mn. $) 199, , ,7 68,2-43 Operating Profit for EBITDA, (mn. $) 220, , ,1 138,5 92 EBITDA (mn.$)-cmb 317, , ,3 160,9 13 EBITDA (mn.$)-cmb- CCS 554, , ,5 113,8-24 EBITDA *(mn. $) 338, , ,7 136,2-38 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 575, ,5 176 (%) * In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas CMB rules is that these should be included in operationg profit 17
18 ,11 0, ,22 0,25 0,22 0,19 0, ,34 0,30 0,32 0,24 0,33 0,30 0,26 0,30 0,35 0, ,40 Financial Highlights (mn $) EBITDA R Net Income Net Debt/(Cash) Return on Average Equity ,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,
19 Balance Sheet Analysis 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 1,81 1,41 Cash & Equivalents (Billion $) 2,16 1,721,69 1,30 1,641,68 1,21 1,04 1,04 0,82 1,64 Mar.13 Jun 13 Sep13 Dec 13Mar.14 Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14Mar.15 Jun.15 Sep.15 Dec.15Mar.16 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 1,34 1,45 1,33 Receivables (Billion $) 0,93 0,71 0,520,51 9 0,20 0,66 1,07 0,88 0,70 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 Financial Loans (Billion $) 2,9 3,1 3,4 3,7 3,1 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,7 3,6 3,9 3,6 3,4 0,8 0,8 1,0 0,5 0,9 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,5 0,6 1,0 0,6 2,1 2,3 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,9 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 Payables (Billion $) 2,972,943,46 3,223,10 3,28 3,04 2,46 1,741,70 1,591,361,23 LT Loans ST Loans 19
20 FX Risk Exposure (31 March 2016) Consolidated Assets Consolidated Liabilities Million $ Cash 896 Receivables 68 Stock 724 Forward 2430 Payables 868 ST Financials 374 RUP 295 LT Financials: 2819 RUP Loans: 1,555 Eurobond: 700 Other credits million $ Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,637 mn $ 20
21 Future Expectations Brent Price Estimation The average Brent price in 2016 is expected to be dollars per barrel band. Med Complex Margin We expect Med Complex margins to be dollars per barrel band in Tupras Net Margin For Tupras net refinery margins, we expect this to be in the region of dollars per barrel Capacity Utilisation Expected Capacity Utilisation in 2016 will be around 100 %. Production will therefore be approximately 28 million tons Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production Total sales volume will be 30.0 million tons Investment Total investments for 2016 will be about 270 Million dollars 21
22 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation. 22
23 Extras 23
24 Income Statement 1Q 1Q % Diff. Million USD % Diff , ,3-26 Net Sales , , ,1 166,5-18 Gross Profit 577, , ,9 10 Operating Expenses -334,6-322, ,8 3,3-104 Income/Loss from other operations -43,6-200, ,3 92,9 120 Operating Profit 199, , ,2 4,9-154 Income/Loss from equity investment -7,6 26, ,1 97,9 196 Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss 191, , ,7 61,6-66 Financial Income 228,1 317, ,7-126,9-44 Finance Expenses -335,8-537, ,9 32,5-373 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 84,0 818, ,0 26,8-76 Net Profit 667,2 938,
25 Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Assets Million USD Difference % Difference Current Assets Cash & C. Equivalents Receivables Derivatives Inventories Pre-paid expenses Other Current Assets Long Term Assets Financial Assets & Subsidiaries Fixed Assets Derivatives Pre-paid expenses Deferred Tax Other Long Term Assets Total Assets
26 Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Liabilities Million USD Difference % Difference Short Term Liabilities Financial Loans Payables Derivatives 39,45 13,89 25, Deferred Incomes 6 8-1,77-22 Provisions Other ST Liabilities Long Term Liabilities Financial Loans Payables & Provisions Derivatives Other LT Liabilities Equity Minority Interests Total Liabilities
27 1st Quarter Product Yields Bitumen 7,5% Gasoline 22,0% Bitumen 9,4% Gasoline 21,5% Fuel Oil 18,2% Black Prod. 25,6% Light Distil. 22,8% Naphtha 0,8% Fuel Oil 15,2% Black Prod. 26,1% Light Distil. 22,4% Naphtha 0,9% LPG 3,3% Other 2,5% Other 5,8% Mid. Distil. 45,8% Jet 17,8% Coke 1,5% LPG 3,5% Other 2,6% Other 6,1% Mid. Distil. 45,4% Jet 15,5% ULSD 27,9% Diesel 29,9% White Product 73.75% Production 5.6 mn ton API:33.14 White Product 72.94% Production 6.6 mn ton API:
28 Product (million ton) 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 Middle Distillate 3,8 3,8 3,1 3,0 2,5 1,9 2,2 2,3 2,5 2,3 2,5 1,8 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,4 1,6 2,0 0,7 0,9 1,0 0,9 1,0 1,3 1,6 1,3 1,0 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 Jet Diesel 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 Light Distillate 1,6 1,6 1,4 1,5 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,0 1,0 1,2 1,3 1,2 1,3 1,5 1,5 1,4 0,9 1,0 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 Gasoline Naphtha 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 Black Product 1,9 1,7 1,6 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,3 1,2 0,7 0,5 0,4 0,6 0,4 0,6 0,4 0,8 0,9 1,1 0,8 1,0 1,1 1,0 0,8 0,8 0,3 0,5 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 Fuel Oil Bitümen Coke 34,5 33,5 32,5 31,5 30,5 29,5 28,5 27,5 Crude Oil API 30,3 31,9 30,3 33,2 32,2 32,9 31,1 33,1 32, st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 28
29 1Q Sales (Thousand Tons) Domestic Sales Export Volumes /1Q : 3.9 mn tons 2016/1Q: 5.1 mn tons /1Q: 1.7 mn tons 2016/1Q: 1.8 mn tons Q Q Q Q Gasoline Middle Dist. Fuel Oil Other 29
30 Fluctuation in Oil Price & Exchange Rate for 1Q ,5 3,06 Brent Crude Price TL/Dollar 40,2 38,7 3, , ,92 2, , ,0 2, ,82 30
31 1Q Trading Activities Finished Products Because of low desulfurisation margin in High Sulfur Diesel imports, ULSD imports were increased in paralel to the sales volume rise. Intermediates HVGO + LCGO imports were the same amount with the last year same quarter. Product Imports, Ton*000 Intermediate Imports, Ton* Q Q HVGO + LCGO 1Q Q ASR F.Oil 31
32 Monthly Price Ratios (product $/bbl/crude $/bbl) 2015-BBL/BBL Jan Feb Mar Avg. LPG 0,68 0,51 0,72 0,64 Naptha 0,85 0,92 0,95 0,91 Gasoline 1,20 1,21 1,31 1,24 Jet Fuel 1,32 1,26 1,23 1,27 Diesel 10ppm 1,31 1,29 1,28 1,29 Diesel 1000ppm 1,26 1,24 1,22 1,24 Fuel Oil %3,5 0,77 0,78 0,80 0, BBL/BBL Jan Feb Mar Avg. LPG 0,93 0,74 0,62 0,76 Naptha 1,08 0,95 0,98 1,00 Gasoline 1,61 1,36 1,38 1,45 Jet Fuel 1,22 1,23 1,20 1,22 Diesel 10ppm 1,24 1,24 1,22 1,23 Diesel 1000ppm 1,19 1,21 1,17 1,19 Fuel Oil %3,5 0,59 0,64 0,60 0,61 32
33 Quarterly Price Ratios (product $/bbl/crude $/bbl) 1,50 1,45 1,40 1,35 1,30 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 1,45 Gasoline 1,38 1,31 1,32 1,24 1,15 1,12 1,13 1,07 1,12 1,13 1,12 1,15 1,08 1,09 1,06 1,04 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q ,35 1,30 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 Diesel 1,29 1,29 1,23 1,25 1,25 1,21 1,14 1,16 1,12 1,14 1,15 1,19 1,15 1,15 1,17 1,17 1,15 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q ,30 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,27 Jet Fuel 1,22 1,21 1,21 1,22 1,18 1,15 1,12 1,10 1,15 1,17 1,14 1,15 1,11 1,13 1,12 1,13 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 Fuel Oil 0,80 0,80 0,78 0,74 0,61 0,64 0,81 0,81 0,85 0,88 0,83 0,89 0,86 0,87 0,81 0,83 0,82 1,00 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
34 Thank You
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