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1 Equity / Large Cap. / Petroleum and Energy 15 February 2010 Bloomberg: TUPRS TI Strong 2009 results on refining side... Reuters: TUPRS IS released its 2009 year end tax purpose financials. The main differences between IFRS and tax financials are the consolidation of its 40% stake at Opet in IFRS and depreciation charges being much lower in IFRS compared to tax financials. The company posted TL632 mn net income on its 2009 year end tax financials, compared with TL421 mn in Revenues in 2009 year end tax financials dropped by 35% YoY to TL 18 bn due to the decrease in oil price compared to Refining margin remained strong in 2009 announced a net refining margin of US$3.05/bbl in 4Q09 compared to US$3.45/bbl in 4Q08. As an additional information about the refining margins, the company s management announced gross refining margin as US$9.2/bbl in 2009, perfectly in-line with our house estimate of US$9.2/bbl. The realized benchmark gross Med-Complex margin was US$1.95/bbl in If we compare gross refining margin and Med -Complex margin, the main reasons for the better refining margin than Med -Complex could be listed as, (i) lower exports, and (ii) higher product yields. Produced less due to the weak demand The total production volume decreased by 30% in 2009 compared to 2008, as of result of the company s risk averse sales policy due to the weak demand. Overall sales volume was down by 17% YoY in Maintain our consolidated estimates Since our -only operating profit estimate stands at TL723 mn, the tax purpose results gives an indication that our refining business estimates seem to be in line with the actual performance (TL713 mn solo operating profit) of the company. Thus, we maintain our consolidated net profit estimate of TL750 mn for, for which the CNBC-e consensus is given as TL787 mn. What s next is expected to announce its consolidated IFRS results on March 12th. Based on a dividend pay-out ratio of 85%, we expect the company to distribute TL637 mn dividends from 2009 earnings, implying a dividend yield of 9% Tax OUTPERFORM (M) TL Upside Potential 23% * Excluding dividend yield Stock Data TRY US$ Price at Month Target Price Mcap (mn) 7,137 4,704 Float Mcap (mn) 3,497 2,305 No. of Shares Outstanding Price / Relative Price TUPRS Relative Relative to ISE mn Free Float (%) Avg.Daily Volume (3M, mn) Market Data TRY ISE ,064 US$ Spot Rate US$ 12-Month Forw ard Price Performance (%) 1 Mn 3 Mn 12 Mn TRY US$ Relative to ISE Week Range (Close TRY) We reiterate our OUTPERFORM recommendation for with a 12 month target share price of TL35.2. Key Estimates (TRY mn) TUPRS E 2010E 2011E Sales 22,520 30,404 19,769 26,435 32,039 EBITDA 1,391 1,394 1,105 1, Net Income 1, P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Dividend Yield (%) Please refer to important disclaimer at the end of this report. Asli Ozata Kumbaraci Basak Dinckoc

2 Summary of Key Financials (TL mn) TUPRS Income Statement (TRY mn) 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Revenues 30,404 19,769 26,435 32,039 EBITDA 1,394 1,105 1, Depreciation & Amortisation 164 (280) (272) (285) EBIT 1, Other income (expense), net Financial expenses, net (734) Minority Interests Income before tax Taxation on Income (110) (186) (190) (174) Net income Cash Flow Statement (TRY mn) Net Income Depreciation & Amortisation 164 (280) (272) (285) Indemnity Provisions Change in Working Capital (797) (155) Cash Flow from Operations 1,390 1,254 (297) 267 Capital Expenditure 547 (256) (354) 765 Free Cash Flow 843 1, (498) Rights Issue Dividends Paid 1, Other Cash Inflow (Outflow ) (368) 280 1, Change in net cash (574) 1, (631) Net Cash (306) 904 1,763 1,132 Balance Sheet (TRY mn) Tangible Fixed Assets 3,370 3,404 3,322 4,371 Other Long Term Assets ,082 Intangibles Goodw ill Long-term financial assets Inventories 1,264 2,021 2,747 3,372 Trade receivables 1,074 1,148 1,535 1,860 Cash & equivalents 1,467 2,768 3,172 3,204 Other current assets Total assets 8,637 11,093 12,162 14,404 Long-term debt Other long-term liabilities ,029 Short-term debt 1,279 1,330 1,200 1,200 Trade payables 1,565 3,181 3,497 4,292 Other short-term liabilities 1,249 1,910 2,554 3,096 Total liabilities 5,081 7,364 8,298 10,489 Minority Interest Total equity 3,556 3,684 3,814 3,864 Paid-in capital Total liabilities & equity 8,637 11,093 12,162 14,404 Ratios ROE (%) ROIC (%) Invested Capital 4,277 3,517 4,232 5,437 Net debt/ebitda (x) 22% -82% -164% -123% Net debt/equity (%) Capex/Sales (%) Capex/Depreciation (x) EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Net Margin Valuation Metrics EV/Sales (x) 0.1x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x EV/EBITDA (x) 3.1x 5.9x 5.8x 6.8x EV/IC (x) 1.0x 1.9x 1.5x 1.1x P/E (x) 15.3x 6.8x 9.2x 10.1x FCF yield (%) (7.0) Dividend yield (%) 12% 14% 9.1% 9.2% 2

3 gross refining margin is US$9.2/bbl in 2009 Refining margin remained strong in 2009 announced a net refining margin of US$3.05/bbl in 4Q09 compared to US$3.45/ bbl in 4Q08. Recall that had begun to announce net refining margins instead of gross refining margins since 3Q09, stating that they are more indicative for overall company performance. Please note that these numbers are calculated according to the statutory accounts and they include the operating costs of the refining process. As an additional information about the refining margins, the company s management announced that gross refining margin is US$9.2/bbl in 2009, perfectly in-line with our house estimate of US$9.2/bbl. The realized gross Med-Complex margin was US$1.95/bbl in If we compare gross refining margin and Med-Complex margin, the main reasons for the better refining margin than Med- Complex could be listed as, (i) lower exports, and (ii) higher product yields. (i) has chosen not to produce for export markets as global product surpluses have turned export premiums into losses. Whenever the profitability of exports improves, the Company targets to respond with higher capacity utilization rates and greater volumes of export. (ii) The Company used more semi products and better utilized the conversion units. Despite lower crude processed, white product yield increased from 68.7% in 2008 to 73.6% in 2009 thanks to the usage of the opportunity crudes i.e. slightly heavier crude was processed. Figure 1: net refining margin vs Med-Complex gross refining margin Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 net refining margin Med-Complex gross refining margin Source: Company 3

4 Figure 2: product yields (%) % 21.0% 10.0% 19.0% Asphalt Gasoline Naphtha Jet Fuel 6.6% 13.8% 12.6% 25.1% 29.0% 12.0% 3.0% Diesel Other Fuel Oil 29.5% 12.5% -0.3% Source: Company Produced less due to the weak demand... The total production volume decreased by 30% in 2009 compared to 2008, as of result of the company s risk averse sales policy due to the weak demand. Domestic sales volume contracted by 8% in 2009 due to the weak demand whereas export sales volume shrank by hefty 46% due to the low margin environment. Thus, the company chose to operate at a relatively lower CUR of 60.4% in 2009, slightly lower than our estimate of 63%. Overall sales volume was down by 17% YoY in Figure 3: Financial Highlights (TL mn) 2009 Tax 2008 Tax % 2009 IFRS IS Investment Estimate 2008 IFRS Sales 18,215 28,225-35% 19,768 30,404-35% Operating Profit 713 1,212-41% 825 1,230-33% EBITDA 971 1,433-32% 1,105 1,394-21% Net Income % % % 4

5 This report has been prepared by Yatırım Menkul Deerler A.. ( Investment) solely for the information of clients of Investment. Opinions and estimates contained in this material are not under the scope of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are given according to the investment advisory contract, signed between the intermediary institutions, portfolio management companies, investment banks and the clients. Opinions and recommendations contained in this report reflect the personal views of the analysts who supplied them. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may involve significant risk, may be illiquid and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial positions and with the assistance of independent advisors, as they believe necessary. The information presented in this report has been obtained from public institutions, such as Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), Capital Market Board of Turkey (CMB), Republic of Turkey, Prime Ministry State Institute of Statistics (SIS), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBT); various media institutions, and other sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made, nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. All information in these pages remains the property of Investment and as such may not be disseminated, copied, altered or changed in any way, nor may this information be printed for distribution purposes or forwarded as electronic attachments without the prior written permission of Investment. ( This research report can also be accessed by subscribers of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. For more information, please visit Capital IQ's web site at 5

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