Energy production and CO 2 balance
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1 HUT / BIOFUELS; Production, Properties and Use, Sept 5 Sept 9, 2005 Energy production and CO 2 balance Tuomo Suntola T. Suntola 1
2 HUT / BIOFUELS; Production, Properties and Use, Sept 5 Sept 9, 2005 Energy production and CO 2 balance Tuomo Suntola 1. Natural energy resources and energy production 2. Electricity production, energy scenarios for the 21st century 3. Energy supply; from source to the enduser, hydrogen technology 4. Carbon balance and annual circulation 5. CO 2 contribution to global warming T. Suntola 2
3 HUT / BIOFUELS; Production, Properties and Use, Sept 5 Sept 9, 2005 Energy production and CO 2 balance Tuomo Suntola 1. Natural energy resources and energy production 2. Electricity production, energy scenarios for the 21st century 3. Energy supply; from source to the enduser, hydrogen technology 4. Carbon balance and annual circulation 5. CO 2 contribution to global warming T. Suntola 3
4 Solar insolation: TW = Gtoe/y (=> 100 million nuclear power stations) Global energy sources and reserves Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 Twy/y = 12 Gtoe/y ( => x 1 GW power stations) Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 4
5 Global energy sources and reserves Solar insolation: TW = Gtoe/y Biomass: -renewal: 600 TWy 80 TWy/y Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 Twy/y = 12 Gtoe/y Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 5
6 Global energy sources and reserves Solar insolation: TW = Gtoe/y Hydro: 1 TW Biomass: -renewal: 600 TWy 80 TWy/y Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 Twy/y = 12 Gtoe/y Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 6
7 Global energy sources and reserves Solar insolation: TW = Gtoe/y Hydro: 1 TW Biomass: -renewal: 600 TWy 80 TWy/y Wind: 0.5 TW Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 TW = 12 Gtoe/y Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 7
8 Global energy balances Solid land biomass production 80 TWy/y Biomass 1,5 TW Fossil fuel 12 TW Forestry 7% Agriculture 4% Electricity by fossil 1,2 TW Popul. 1% Hydro 0,25 TW Nuclear 0,22 TW Solid land biomass production: 0,1 % of solar insolation Energy production: 0,01 % of solar insolation T. Suntola 8
9 Energy balances in Finland Biomass production 30 GWy/y Biomass (including peat) 12 GWy/y Energy production 40 GWy/y Forestry residues Fossil fuels combustion Combustion based electricity Import 5 GWy/y 1 GWy/y 19 GWy/y Forestry industry 15 GWy/y Agriculture 1,6 GWy/y Fossil fuels, trafic 7 GWy/y 1,8 GWy/y 2,2 GWy/y Hydro power Nuclear power Population 0,5 GWy/y Solid land biomass production: 0,1 % of solar insolation Energy production: 0,15 % of solar insolation T. Suntola 9
10 Energy balances in Finland Biomass production 30 GWy/y Forestry residues Forestry industry 15 GWy/y Agriculture 1,6 GWy/y Population 0,5 GWy/y Solid land biomass production: 0,1 % of solar insolation Total energy consumption by energy source Petajoule (PJ) / year Fossil fuels 22 GWy/y Biomass 4,6 GWy/y Energy production 35 GWy/y Combustion based electricity 3,1 GWy/y Energy production: 0,15 % of solar insolation 50 GWy/y Electricity import Other Peat Wood Hydro Nuclear Hydro power Natural gas 1,7 GWy/y Coal Oil Nuclear power 2,1 GWy/y T. Suntola 10
11 Energy balances in France Biomass production 120 GWy/y Energy production 280 GWy/y Agriculture residues 55 GWy/y Fossil fuels Hydro electricity 7 GWy/y 160 GWy/y Forestry Industry 7 GWy/y Agriculture products 35 GWy/y Population 5 GWy/y Biomass Nuclear electricity 38 GWy/y Combustion based electricity 7 GWy/y Solid land biomass production: 120 GWy/y = 0,2 % of solar insolation Energy production: 280 Gwy/y = 0,45 % of solar insolation T. Suntola 11
12 HUT / BIOFUELS; Production, Properties and Use, Sept 5 Sept 9, 2005 Energy production and CO 2 balance Tuomo Suntola 1. Natural energy resources and energy production 2. Electricity production, energy scenarios for the 21st century 3. Energy supply; from source to the enduser, hydrogen technology 4. Carbon balance and annual circulation 5. CO 2 contribution to global warming T. Suntola 12
13 Global production of electricity GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar Year T. Suntola 13
14 Global production of electricity GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar Year T. Suntola 14
15 Global production of electricity GW TOTAL Fossil Hydro Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar 0, Year T. Suntola 15
16 Global production of electricity GW TOTAL Fossil Hydro Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar 0, Year T. Suntola 16
17 Global production of electricity GW TOTAL Fossil Hydro Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar 0, Year T. Suntola 17
18 Global production of electricity GW TOTAL Fossil Hydro Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar 0, Year T. Suntola 18
19 Global production of electricity GW TOTAL Fossil Hydro Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar 0, Year T. Suntola 19
20 Global production of electricity GW TOTAL Fossil Hydro Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar 0, Year T. Suntola 20
21 Global production of electricity GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar Year T. Suntola 21
22 Global production of electricity GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar Year T. Suntola 22
23 Primary energy scenario for Global energy production TW 30 Other, new? Solar Wind Nuclear Oil 20 Oil Gas Gas to liquid & Advanced coal Conventional coal Advanced biomass Conventional biomass Hydro T. Suntola 23
24 Primary energy scenario for Global energy production TW 30 Other, new? Solar Wind Nuclear Oil 20 Oil Gas Gas to liquid & Advanced coal? 10 Conventional coal Advanced biomass Conventional biomass Hydro 2100 T. Suntola 24
25 World Electricity Demand by Regions Consumption of electricity MWh / year / capita 12 8 North America OECD Pacific Western Europe Russia & Eastern Europe 4 0 Latin America East Asia Middle East & North Africa China India Rest of the world Population, cumulative [millions of people] T. Suntola 25
26 France Mobility by Travel Mode (passenger-kilometers per day per person) ,000 All modes 10 1 Buses + cars 10,000 Km/day-cap Wheelers Rail 1,000 Meter/day-cap 10-1 Railways Horses Air TGV Waterways Grübler IIASA 1998 T. Suntola 26
27 HUT / BIOFUELS; Production, Properties and Use, Sept 5 Sept 9, 2005 Energy production and CO 2 balance Tuomo Suntola 1. Natural energy resources and energy production 2. Electricity production, energy scenarios for the 21st century 3. Energy supply; from source to the enduser, hydrogen technology 4. Carbon balance and annual circulation 5. CO 2 contribution to global warming T. Suntola 27
28 Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 28
29 Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 29
30 Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 30
31 Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Natural gas Hydrogen Gases Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 31
32 Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Natural gas Hydrogen Coal, peat, wood-chips&pellets Gases Solid fuels Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 32
33 Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Energy products Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Natural gas Hydrogen Coal, peat, wood-chips&pellets Gases Solid fuels Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 33
34 Hydrogen production / GJ Crude oil Natural gas 5 Coal 10 Peat Biomass, residues & waste 15 Bio-products, cultivated Hydro 10 Wind potential 30 Solar insolation 50 Nuclear 20 T. Suntola 34
35 Energy cost comparison 20 per GJ 10 0 Coal Oil Gas H2 fossil H2 renew. Petrol Elect. T. Suntola 35
36 Combustion energies of selected substances mol.w. kj/mol kj/g=gj/ton toe / ton MWh / ton Hydrogen H ,8 142,90 3,52 39,69 Methane CH ,8 55,68 1,37 15,46 Carbon C ,5 32,79 0,81 9,11 Methanol CH 3 OH ,1 22,69 0,56 6,30 Carbon monoxide CO ,0 10,11 0,25 2,81 toe 40,61 11,28 T. Suntola 36
37 HUT / BIOFUELS; Production, Properties and Use, Sept 5 Sept 9, 2005 Energy production and CO 2 balance Tuomo Suntola 1. Natural energy resources and energy production 2. Electricity production, energy scenarios for the 21st century 3. Energy supply; from source to the enduser, hydrogen technology 4. Carbon balance and annual circulation 5. CO 2 contribution to global warming T. Suntola 37
38 Global Mean Temperature Change T. Suntola INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE 38CHANGE (IPCC)
39 Mauna Loa measurement on atmospheric CO 2 content 500 CO 2 (ppm) T. Suntola 39
40 Global Mean Temperature Change CO 2 development T. Suntola INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE 40CHANGE (IPCC)
41 Global Mean Temperature Change T. Suntola INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE 41CHANGE (IPCC)
42 Carbon distribution in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt Forests 450 Gt Oceans Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer Gt? T. Suntola 42
43 Carbon circulation in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt 60 Gt/y 100 Gt/y Forests 450 Gt Oceans Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer Gt? T. Suntola 43
44 Carbon circulation in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt 8 Gt/y 60 Gt/y 100 Gt/y Forests 450 Gt Oceans Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer Gt? T. Suntola 44
45 Carbon circulation in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt 8 Gt/y 50 Mt/y 100 Gt/y 60 Gt/y Forests 450 Gt Oceans Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer Gt? T. Suntola 45
46 Carbon distribution in atmosphere and oceans 6 Gt annual CO 2 emissions 700 Gt atmosphere Natural CO 2 exchange 100 Gt/y Oceans Gt 700 Gt 100 m surface layer Gt deep oceans T. Suntola 46
47 Carbon distribution in atmosphere and oceans 6 Gt annual CO 2 emissions 700 Gt atmosphere Natural CO 2 exchange 100 Gt/y 50 Mt annual SO x emissions Oceans Gt 700 Gt 100 m surface layer Gt deep oceans T. Suntola 47
48 Reaction equations and the calculation procedure for the multiphase CaCO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 O system in the presence of sulfuric acid ( ) ( ) CO g CO aq (1) ( ) CO aq +H O H +HCO (2) HCO H +CO (3) ( ) CaCO s Ca +CO (4) 3 3 () HSO l HSO +H (5) HSO H +SO (6) T and p - standard H, C, S data - model for G E Solver for minimum (G) - concentrations - activities, ph - partial pressures - equilibrium constants T. Suntola 48
49 Equilibrium between CO 2 pressure and ocean at different temperatures 4,500E-04 p(co 2 ) [bar] 4,000E-04 Annual increase in the p(co 2 ) pressure 3,500E-04 T=25 C Effect of annual acid rain in 1 meter surface layer T=15 C 3,000E-04 2,500E-04 T= 5 C 2,000E-04 5,000E-04 5,500E-04 6,000E-04 6,500E-04 7,000E-04 CaCO 3 [mol/kg] T. Suntola 49
50 Effect of SO x emissions on atmospheric CO 2 equilibrium 1,2 1 0,8 SO x reference level 50 Mt(S)/year 0,6 0,4 0, CO 2 (ppm) CO 2 (Mauna Loa) T. Suntola 50
51 HUT / BIOFUELS; Production, Properties and Use, Sept 5 Sept 9, 2005 Energy production and CO 2 balance Tuomo Suntola 1. Natural energy resources and energy production 2. Electricity production, energy scenarios for the 21st century 3. Energy supply; from source to the enduser, hydrogen technology 4. Carbon balance and annual circulation 5. CO 2 contribution to global warming T. Suntola 51
52 Global Warming & Climate Change The average global temperature is rising sharply due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. This rise in temperature is creating change in the world's climate which will have enormous consequences for people and the planet. Humans are contributing to the greenhouse effect by emitting greenhouse gases (GHGs) that trap energy and warm the atmosphere. Most of the emissions come from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gasoline. T. Suntola 52
53 Global Warming & Climate Change. OR. The average global temperature is rising sharply due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. Humans are contributing to the greenhouse effect by disturbing the balance of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere, soil and waters. TS T. Suntola 53
54 Distribution of the earth area Area of solar panels needed for all present production of energy 0,06 % Buildings, roads, ect < 0,5 % Cropland 3 % Pasture 6,5 % Forests 8,1 % Deserts ect 9,4 % Oceans 73 % T. Suntola 54
55 Alternatives for solar insolation to electricity conversion 0,01 0,4 0,3 0,95 0,001 (total) Biomass / fossil fuels Sun -biomass -(fossil fuels) -combustion - turbine - generator - power grid 0,8 0,25 0,95 0,2 (total) Solar thermal Sun - heat collector - turbine -generator - power grid 0,12 0,9 0,1(total) Photovoltaic Sun - solar panels - inverter - power grid T. Suntola 55
56 Energy balances in Finland Biomass production 30 GWy/y Total energy consumption by energy source 2004 Petajoule (PJ) / year Energy production 35 GWy/y 50 GWy/y Forestry residues Fossil fuels Forestry industry 15 GWy/y Agriculture 1,6 GWy/y Population 0,5 GWy/y Solid land biomass production: 0,1 % of solar insolation 22 GWy/y Biomass 4,6 GWy/y Combustion based electricity 3,1 GWy/y Energy production: 0,15 % of solar insolation Hydro power 1,7 GWy/y Nuclear power 2,1 GWy/y T. Suntola 56
57 Evolution of Global Primary Energy Nakicenovic 57 TU-Wien & IIASA 2003
58 Evolution of Global Primary Energy Nakicenovic 58 TU-Wien & IIASA 2003
59 H 2 cost / production alternatives / GJ Natural gas reforming (central) 5-8 Other fossil (oil POX, coal gasification) Natural gas reforming (LNG) Natural gas on site reforming Biomass gasification Electrolysis (hydroelectricity) Electrolysis (wind) Electrolysis (solar thermal) Photoelectrolysis T. Suntola 59
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