FIATA World Congress 2015

Transcription

1 FIATA World Congress 2015 Trends in Global Transportation and Logistics Presented by Bronson Hsieh Vice Group Chairman, Evergreen Group

2 Trends in Global Transportation and Logistics 1. Global Economic Outlook 2. Container Shipping Trends 3. Air Freight Market Trends 4. Logistics Market Trends 2

3 Global Economic Outlook IMF World Economic Outlook China's New Economic Strategy Free Trade Development 3

4 Global Economic Outlook IMF World Economic Outlook Projections Jul 2015 Area Year World Output 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.8% United States 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0% Euro Zone -0.4% 0.8% 1.5% 1.7% Russia 1.3% 0.6% -3.4% 0.2% Brazil 2.7% 0.1% -1.5% 0.7% China 7.7% 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% Oil prices -0.9% -7.5% -38.8% 9.1% Commodity prices -1.2% -4.0% -15.6% -1.7% World economic growth rates at similar levels during A trend of stable recovery. Stronger outlook is forecast for

5 Global Economic Outlook IMF World Economic Outlook Projections Jul 2015 Area Year World Output 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.8% United States 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0% Euro Zone -0.4% 0.8% 1.5% 1.7% Russia 1.3% 0.6% -3.4% 0.2% Brazil 2.7% 0.1% -1.5% 0.7% China 7.7% 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% Oil prices -0.9% -7.5% -38.8% 9.1% Commodity prices -1.2% -4.0% -15.6% -1.7% Boosted by shale oil production and manufacturing recovery, the U.S. has reduced trade deficit to a new low since Strong US dollar will increases its purchasing power. 5

6 Global Economic Outlook IMF World Economic Outlook Projections Jul 2015 Area Year World Output 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.8% United States 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0% Euro Zone -0.4% 0.8% 1.5% 1.7% Russia 1.3% 0.6% -3.4% 0.2% Brazil 2.7% 0.1% -1.5% 0.7% China 7.7% 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% Oil prices -0.9% -7.5% -38.8% 9.1% Commodity prices -1.2% -4.0% -15.6% -1.7% Euro Zone economic growth rate turned positive to 0.8% in 2014, forecast to grow 1.5% in 2015 and 1.7% in We are seeing a slow upward trend. 6

7 Global Economic Outlook IMF World Economic Outlook Projections Jul 2015 Area Year World Output 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.8% United States 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0% Euro Zone -0.4% 0.8% 1.5% 1.7% Russia 1.3% 0.6% -3.4% 0.2% Brazil 2.7% 0.1% -1.5% 0.7% China 7.7% 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% Oil prices -0.9% -7.5% -38.8% 9.1% Commodity prices -1.2% -4.0% -15.6% -1.7% Due to tumbling oil prices, Russian economic growth rate is forecast to drop to -3.4% in US and EU sanctions will also affect Russian imports & exports. 7

8 Global Economic Outlook IMF World Economic Outlook Projections Jul 2015 Area Year World Output 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.8% United States 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0% Euro Zone -0.4% 0.8% 1.5% 1.7% Russia 1.3% 0.6% -3.4% 0.2% Brazil 2.7% 0.1% -1.5% 0.7% China 7.7% 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% Oil prices -0.9% -7.5% -38.8% 9.1% Commodity prices -1.2% -4.0% -15.6% -1.7% Shrinking commodity demand impacted South American economy. Brazil's economy grew by 2.7% in 2013 but downgraded to -1.5 in

9 Global Economic Outlook China's New Economic Strategy IMF forecast Year GDP growth 10.6% 9.5% 7.7% 7.7% 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% China's economic growth slowed down in the past few years. To boost economy, China initiated "One Belt, One Road" strategy. By helping other countries build infrastructure, China can expand markets for its production across Eurasia, Africa, etc. China initiated AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) with 57 founding members to provide financial support for the projects. 9

10 Free Trade Development Several free trade agreements are taking in recent years. The economic cooperation will remove trade barriers, facilitate commercial trade and boost cargo growth. Free Trade Agreement member states Global GDP % TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership 12 38% RCEP TTIP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership 16 30% 29 46% 10

11 Container Shipping Market Trends Vessel Upsizing Alliance Development Panama Canal Expansion 11

12 Container Shipping - Vessel Upsizing In view of cost benefit, carriers are building bigger vessels. Capacity growth rate of Ultra Large Container Ships is 71.9%, much higher than those of other vessel types. ULCS are deployed to Asia Europe trade, smaller vessels are cascaded to Trans-Pacific, Middle East, South America, etc. 12

13 Container Shipping - Alliance Background To produce the cost benefits, ULCS have to be fully loaded. Carriers are motivated to join alliances to raise utilization. Benefits lower slot costs comprehensive network more sailings less transshipment costs Major Shipping Alliances Alliance 2M O3 G6 CKYHE Member Line Maersk, MSC CMA CGM, CSCL, UASC Hapag Lloyd, OOCL, NYK, Hyundai, APL, MOL COSCO, YML, K Line, Hanjin, Evergreen Line 13

14 Container Shipping - Panama Canal Currently Panama Canal can handle ships of maximum 5,000 teu. After its expansion project is completed in 2016, it will be able to accommodate new Panamax vessels up to 12,000-teu ships. Comparison of Panamax & New Panamax Vessels Dimension\Type Panamax New Panamax Length 294 m 366 m Width 32.3 m 49 m Draft 12 m 15.2 m Capacity 5,000 teu 12,000 teu 14

15 Container Shipping - Panama Canal Expanded Panama Canal will attract large vessels to USEC. USEC ports are deepening channels and enlarging facilities. NYC and NFK have deepened channels to 50 feet. NYC Port Authority is raising the Bayonne Bridge to allow larger container ships to pass. Channel Depth NYC BAL NFK CHS SVN HUS Current 50 ft 47 ft 50 ft 45 ft 42 ft 40 ft Deepen to 50 ft 47 ft 50 ft 52 ft 47 ft 45 ft To Complete ready ready ready / Note: channel depth based on MLW (mean low water) 15

16 Air Freight Market Trends Air Freight Market Outlook Evolution of Capacity Supply Increase in Belly Hold Capacity 16

17 Air Freight - Market Outlook IATA Air Freight Market Outlook Period annual growth rate 0.63% 4.5% 4.1% 17

18 Air Freight - Evolution of Capacity Supply Gray bars - capacity of delivered freighters. Yellow bars - capacity of retired freighters. The two bars at similar levels. New freighters replace old ones. Blue line - capacity of global freighters in service, not increasing. Red line - capacity of global freighters in storage, not increasing. 18

19 Air Freight - Evolution of Capacity Supply Blue bars - capacity added by belly of passenger jets, increasing. Red bars - capacity added by dedicated freighters, decreasing 19

20 Air Freight - Increase in Belly Capacity Model Belly cargo payload (ton) Model B747-8 Belly Cargo Payload per Aircraft Boeing Airbus B747-8 B ER B A380 A330 A B ER B777X B787-8/9/10 A380 A330 A350 Order 51 1,092 1, , Delivered ,215 5 Unfilled * Belly cargo payload has deducted full passenger load and ULD (unit load device) weight. * Source: Boeing & Airbus Belly holds of passenger jets offer additional cargo revenue. High belly capacity aircraft models: B777, B787, A330, A340, A350. Many operators prefer the models with high belly capacity. 20

21 Logistics Market Trends Logistics Market Outlook Value-Added Service E-Commerce Business 21

22 Logistics - Market Outlook Freight Forwarding Market Outlook Source: Ti (Transport Intelligence) freight forwarding marine air freight annual growth rate 6.7% 7.6% 5.8% 22

23 Logistics - Value-Added Service Ti compared major logistics providers cargo volumes and revenues. Average revenue is going up in spite of fluctuating volumes. Higher fee for customized services & logistics solutions. 23

24 Logistics - Value-Added Service Same development for logistics providers air freight business. Higher revenues for customized services & logistics solutions. 24

25 Logistics - E-Commerce Business Blue bar: global retail e-commerce sales reach $1.1 trillion in 2013, will more than double in E-commerce accounts for 5.1% in 2013, expect to reach 8.8% in Marked by red, growth of e-commerce retail sales, around 3 times of traditional channels of brick-and-mortar. 25

26 Logistics - E-Commerce Business According to Accenture and AliResearch, by 2020 global population of cross-border online shoppers will grow to 943 million. Global cross-border B2C volume Global B2C cross-border e-commerce market will grow from $230 billion in 2014 to $1 trillion in 2020, an annual growth rate of 27.4%. 26

27 Logistics B2C E-Commerce Traditional Model After shipping online, consumers need to make shipping choices Cost of international express delivery is too high Time for container shipping is too long New Model Retailers make sales forecast in advance. Products are imported by container and stored in bonded warehouse. Upon order, products are delivered from warehouse to consumers. This model helps to reduce delivery time and costs. Consumers can enjoy fast and inexpensive delivery service. 27

28 Logistics B2B E-Commerce E-Commerce business model is not limited to B2C, but also B2B. B2B transaction Higher volume, Bigger amount, Huge growth potential. However, decision making process is longer than B2C. 28

29 Logistics B2B E-Commerce B2B e-commerce platform offers Trade Assurance service It is designed to create trust between buyers and suppliers to speed up transactions. Payment protection for buyers, if orders are not shipped as promised, product quality is not up to standards. IT capability is critical for logistics service providers to participate in e-commerce business chain. 29

30 Logistics B2B E-Commerce This model relies on logistics service providers to oversee fulfilment process : verify product content and quality when needed, arrange customs clearance and ensure delivery, update delivery status via IT system connections. By working with e-commerce platforms, logistics service providers for are able to control the cargo of cross-border on-line transactions. 30

31 Logistics - E-Commerce Business If logistics service providers want to stay at forefront of the industry and participate in the growing e-commerce business, they need to embrace the dynamics of these developments and provide effective solutions. 31

32 FIATA World Congress 2015 Trends in Global Transportation and Logistics 30 32