EUROMETAL OUTLOOK ON ECONOMIES & STEEL MARKETS

Transcription

1 EUROMETAL OUTLOOK ON ECONOMIES & STEEL MARKETS A REPORT TO EUROMETAL MEMBERS & EUROMETAL ASSOCIATE MEMBERS AND MEMBERS OF AFFILIATED FEDERATIONS DISMET, EASSC, NAT.FED AND STSG ECONOMIES AND STEEL MARKETS AT THE START OF 2015 GDP, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CONSTRUCTION, STEEL CONSUMPTION EUROMETAL European Federation of Steel, Tube and Metal Distribution and Trading Federation registered in Switzerland Federation Seat: Güterstrasse 78, CH-4010 Basel Post Box: 202b, rue de Hamm, L-1713 Luxembourg M: office@eurometal.net F: T: Eurometal.net 1

2 OUTLOOK ON WORLD ECONOMIES FOUR KEY DEVELOPMENTS: OIL PRICES HAVE DECLINED BY -55 % SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014, PARTLY DUE TO DEMAND WEAKNESS, BUT MAINLY DUE TO SUPPLY FACTORS. GLOBAL GROWTH OF MORE THAN +3 % MASKS GROWTH DIVERGENCES AMONG MAJOR ECONOMIES. USA DID RECOVER, BUT ALL OTHER MAJOR ECONOMIES FELL SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS SINCE FALL 2014 THE DOLLAR HAS APPRECIATED, WHILE EURO AND YEN HAVE DEPRECIATED, AS MANY EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES DID, PARTICULARLY THOSE OF COMMODITY EXPORTERS INTEREST RATES AND RISK SPREADS HAVE RISEN IN MANY EMERGING ECONOMIES, NOTABLY COMMODITY EXPORTERS IMF, WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, UPDATE JANUARY

3 WORLD GDP GROWTH IN 2015 IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER GROWTH RATE THAN IN 2014 CIS USA 2014: +2,4 % 2015: +3,6 % EURO AREA 2014: +0,8 % 2015: +1,2 % MENA 2014: +2,8 % 2015: +3,3 % 2014: +0,9 % 2015: -1,4 % CHINA 2014: +7,4 % 2015: +6,8 % INDIA ASEAN = WORLD GDP GROWTH LAT.AMERICA 2014: +5,8 % 2015: + 6,3 % 2014: +4,5 % 2015: +5,2 % 2014: + 3,3 % 2015: + 3,5 % 2014: +1,2 % 2015: +1,3 % SUB-SAHARA AFRICA 2014: +4,8 % 2015: +4,9 % EUROMETAL CHART BASED ON IMF DATA; UPDATE:

4 THE RECOVERY LACKED MOMENTUM IN OUTLOOK ON EU ECONOMIES UNFINISHED MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTS AND SLUGGISH IMPLEMENTATION OF REFORMS UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENT PRIVATE CONSUMPTION HAS BEEN THE MAIN ENGINE OF GROWTH INVESTMENT HAS FAILED TO RECOVER EXPORTS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO SUPPORT GROWTH BUT NEW FACTORS BRIGHTEN THE NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK OIL PRICES HAVE DECLINED, LOWERING ENERGY INPUT COSTS EURO HAS DEPRECIATED NOTABLY, BOOSTING EXPORT PERSPECTIVES ECB HAS DECIDED TO EXPAND SIZE AND COMPOSITION OF ITS OUTRIGHT ASSET PURCHASES EU COMMISSION HAS PRESENTED ITS INVESTMENT PLAN EU COMMISION FORECAST, 4

5 FOR 2015, EU GDP GROWTH IS ESTIMATED TO BE +1,7 %. BRITISH ISLANDS AND CENTRAL EUROPE WILL BE THE POWER HOUSES OF GDP GROWTH IN EU. IBERIA WILL BE RECOVERING +5,7 = % CHANGE IN GDP YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON 2015/ ,2 +2,3 +0,8 +2,9 GDP IN EU-28 E2014: +1,3 % F2015: +1,7 % +1,6 +3,5 +2,3 +2,8 +1,0 +1,4 +1,1 + 1,7 +1,5 +2,5 + 0,8 +1,8 +0,6 +2,3 +3,0 +3,2 +2,5 +2,4 + 2,7 +0,2 +2,2 +0,8 +2,6 +2,5 SOURCE : EUROMETAL CHART BASED ON EU COMMISSION FORECAST

6 IN 2015, EU STEEL USING SECTORS WILL GROW BETWEEN 1,5 3,8 %, DEPENDING ON ACTIVITY SECTOR, LEADING TO AN ESTIMATED GROWTH OF APPARENT STEEL CONSUMPTION OF +1,9 % 6

7 IN EARLY 2015, MAIN STEEL USE SECTORS ARE FORECASTING BETTER GROWTH EXPECTATIONS EU STEEL END USE SECTORS FORECASTS E 2014 F 2015 CONSTRUCTION -6,1 % - 2,6 % + 3,7 % - 5,1 % -2,9 % + 1,3 % +1,5 % MECHANICAL ENGINEERING - 25,7 % + 9,9 % +10,2 % - 0,5 % -3,8 % + 1,2 % +2,1 % AUTOMOTIVE - 25,3 % +20,7 % + 10,9 % -4,6 % + 1,0 % + 5,0 % +3,8 % DOMESTIC APPLIANCES -12,7 % + 2,7 % - 5,5 % - 1,3 % + 0,2% -1,0 % +2,0 % METAL WARE & GOODS - 23,4 % +8,6 % +8,8 % - 2,7 % - 0,3 % + 2,5 % +2,4 % SINCE 2009 EU MAIN STEEL CONSUMING INDUSTRIES HAVE BEEN MUCH OF THE TIME IN A NEGATIVE ORIENTATION. PERSPECTIVES SINCE 2014 HAVE TURNED POSITIVE AGAIN CONSEQUENTLY IN 2014, TRENDS IN STEEL CONSUMPTION HAVE REVERSED INTO GROWTH MODE EU STEEL DEMAND ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS REAL STEEL COMSUMPTION - 22 % +5 % +5 % - 5 % - 3,0 % +1,4 % +1,7 % APPARENT STEEL CONSUMPTION -35 % +22 % +6 % - 10 % - 0,2 % +3,3 % +1,9 % E 2014 F 2015 EU-28 STEEL USING SEGMENTS SOURCE: EUROFER UPDATE

8 D IN 2014, STEEL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN EU IS ESTIMATED BY WORLDSTEEL TO OUTNUMBER GLOBAL GROWTH OF WORLD STEEL MARKET IN EU AND NAFTA, ESTIMATED STEEL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IS HIGHER THAN STEEL PRODUCTION GROWTH CHINA S STEEL PRODUCTION GROWTH SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITH ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION GROWTH CIS INCREASE IN PRODUCTION CONTRASTS WITH AN ESTIMATED FALL IN CONSUMPTION 8

9 IN 2014, WORLDSTEEL PRODUCTION DID GROW BY +1,1 %, LOWER THAN WORLDSTEEL ESTIMATE OF STEEL CONSUMPTION, WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BY WORLD REGIONS WORLD STEEL OUTPUT 2014 / 2013 IN % WORLD STEEL APPARENT CONSUMPTION ESTIMATE 2014 / 2013 IN % EU ,8 % OTHER EUROPE - 0,8 % CIS - 2,8 % NAFTA + 2,0 % SOUTH AMERICA - 1,4 % AFRICA / MIDEAST + 4,2 % CHINA + 0,9 % EU ,3 % OTHER EUROPE + 1,9 % CIS - 3,8 % NAFTA + 6,4 % SOUTH AMERICA - 2,,4 % AFRICA / MID EAST + 3,6 % CHINA + 1,0 % OTHER ASIA + 2,9 % ASIA / PACIFIC + 2,8 % WORLD + 1,1 % WORLD + 2,0 % SOURCE: WORLDSTEEL, EUROMETAL; UPDATED

10 EUROMETAL SCOREBOARD FORECAST 2015 BASED ON AVAILABLE ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRIAL FORECASTS, EUROMETAL ANTICIPATES THE FOLLOWING TRENDS FOR STEEL DISTRIBUTION ACTIVITIES IN 2015: GENERAL STEEL STOCKHOLDERS & PROXIMITY DISTRIBUTORS: +1,5 % FLAT SSC: +2,0 % SOURCE: EUROMETAL; UPDATE

11 2015 FORECAST SCORE BOARD EU-28 STEEL MARKET: MITIGATED GROWTH IN 2015 GDP : E2015 = +1,3 % INDUSTRIAL STEEL USER PRODUCTION: E2015 = +2,4 % CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT: E2015 = +1,5 % REAL STEEL CONSUMPTION E2015 = +1,7 % STEEL DISTRIBUTION SALES E2015: LONG STEELS: +1,5 % EU STEEL PRODUCTION 2014: +1,8 % APPARENT STEEL CONSUMPTION E2014 = +1,9 % STEEL DISTRIBUTION SALES E2015: FLAT STEELS: +2,0 % SOURCE: EUROMETAL UPDATED