Cost and potential of renewable energy in the Alps while protecting ecosystems services

Transcription

1 Cost and potential of renewable energy in the Alps while protecting ecosystems services Sylvain Leduc(1), Florian Kraxner(1), Sennai Mesfun(2), Hernán Serrano León(1), Giulia Geregnani(3), Georg Kindermann(1), Sabine Fuss (1,4), Annika Marxen(4,5), Chris Walzer(6) (1) Ecosystems Services and Management Program, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (2) Luleå University of Technology, Sweden (3) EURAC - European Academy of Bozen/Bolzano, Italy (4) Working Group on Sustainable Resource Management and Global Change, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany (5) Technical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany (6) Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria Swedish Association for Energy Economics Conference 2016 Luleå, Sweden, 23 August 2016

2 Outline Background Objective Methodology Results Online-tool Conclusion 2

3 Background Renewable energy (RE): EU climate change policy (2009/28/EC), nuclear phase-out Alpine Convention s Energy Protocol: Alpine region to make a long-term contribution to meeting Europe s energy needs (EC 2005, p. 37) Concern: ESS often compete with RE for productive sites important tradeoffs to be analyzed to maintain ES functions and services under increasing RE demand and other pressures. Contributions: Detailed spatial analysis of renewable energy solutions and tradeoffs in in multifunctional landscapes Quantification and visualization of ecological-economic tradeoffs without making assumptions on weights and preferences and judgments about valuation Support decision-makers in forming strategies offering robustness across uncertainties 3

4 Objective To identify the potential and cost of production of renewable energy (RE) in the Alps in regards with the protection of the ecosystems services (ESS) 4

5 The BeWhere Umbrella Forest resources Crop residuals Biofuel MSW Heat Algae Biochar Solar Fertilizers Wind Biogas Hydro Power Ecosystem services Power to liquid/gas Geothermal BECCS Co-firing 5

6 BeWhere Model Domestic biomass Sawmill residuals Biomass import Biomass Forest industries CHP Existing industries New bioenergy plants Heat & power Transport fuel Demand Fossil fuel Biofuel Import Reference system Existing flows Optional flows 6

7 Input Data Distribution Road, train network Power lines Power stations Costs and emissions Transport Distribution Plant setup and OM Production sites Existing infrastructure Techno-economic param. Fossil fuel Power/heat price Fossil fuel use Protected areas

8 BeWhere answers (1)Number (2)Technologies (3)Size (4)Locations Policy tool Costs Emission avoided Direct emissions Economic potential Trades 31/08/2016 8

9 Ecosystem trade-offs of forest areas G4M estimates the impact of forestry activities on carbon sequestration and supply of biomass in the Alps (258,000 km2 total area, 115,000 km2 forest). Forests managed to maximize two ecosystem values through changing the rotation period: S1: Maximization of carbon stock in forests. S2: Maximization of biomass production. S1: Carbon sequestration S2: Biomass production Harvest potential Mt C /year Carbon stock Mt C 1, Source: G4M 1: Carbon sequestration scenario (stock) tc/ha 2: Biomass production scenario (stock) tc/ha

10 Economic bioenergy potential BeWhere estimates the optimal allocation of bioenergy production plants and associated harvesting intensity. Bioenergy is competing with other energy production types (i.e. costs of fossil fuels). Economic supply: 14 TWh (heat & electricity) met by both scenarios. Significant local difference of harvesting intensity. Harvesting intensity/cell (1,000 m 3 / yr) Total harvested amount in S1: (1,000 m 3 / yr) Source: BeWhere Total harvested amount in S2: (1,000 m 3 / yr) , ,820 1, ,851 1, ,290 tc/ha tc/ha S1: Carbon sequestration scenario (increment) S2: Biomass production scenario (increment) 1,000 m 3 1,000 m 3

11 National Park Legend National Park Legend DESIGN_ENG Legend National Park National DESIGN_ENG Park DESIGN_ENG National Park National Park - Buffer zone/area of adhesion National Park - Core Area National Park - Integrale Core AreaReserve Buffer zone/area of adhesion Swiss National National Park - Park Integrale Reserve Core Area Alps National Convention Park - Buffer zone/area of adhesion National Park - Integrale Reserve EU27 Swiss National Park Swiss National Park Croatia Alps Convention Alps EU27Convention EU27 Croatia Croatia

12 Nature Reserve Legend National Park Legend DESIGN_ENG Nature National Reserve Park Legend DESIGN_ENG National Park - Buffer zone/area of adhesion National Nature Park - Core Reserve Area Nature Reserve National State Nature Park Reserve - Integrale Reserve DESIGN_ENG Swiss Nature National ReservePark National Nature Reserve Alps Natural Convention reserve State Nature Reserve EU27 Regional/Provincial Nature Reserve Nature Reserve Croatia Regional Nature Reserve Natural reserve Alps Convention Regional/Provincial Nature Reserve EU27 Regional Nature Reserve Croatia Alps Convention EU27 Croatia

13 Natural Park Legend Natural LegendPark DESIGN_ENG Natural Park Alps Nature Convention Park EU27 Regional Nature Park Croatia Regional/Provincial Nature Park Regional Park Alps Convention EU27 Croatia

14 Particular Protection Legend Particular Protection DESIGN_ENG Biosphere Park Biosphere reserves Biotope Protection Order Dry Grasslands Ecological Important Area Emerald Sites Federal Hunting Reserves Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I* Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of * Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures * Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa* Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire* Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and * Fenlands of National Importance Flora Protection Area Forest Biological Reserve Forest Reserve Horticultural Monument Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio* Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur* Landscape Park Landscape Protection Area Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo* Mire Landscapes of National Importance National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve

15 Particular Protection Legend Particular Protection Particular Protection DESIGN_ENG DESIGN_ENG Biosphere Park Biosphere Park Biosphere reserves Biosphere reserves Biotope Protection Order Biotope Protection Order Dry Grasslands Ecological Dry Grasslands Important Area Emerald Ecological Sites Important Area Federal Emerald Hunting Sites Reserves Federal Inventory Hunting of Reserves Alluvial Zones of National I* Federal Inventory of Amphibian of Alluvial Zones Spawning of National Areas of * I* Federal Inventory of of Dry Amphibian Grasslands Spawning and Pastures Areas * of * Federal Federal Inventory Inventory of of Fenlands Dry Grasslands of National and Importa* Pastures * Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire* Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa* Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and * Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire* Fenlands of National Importance Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and * Flora Protection Area Fenlands of National Importance Forest Biological Reserve Flora Protection Area Forest Reserve Horticultural Forest Biological Monument Reserve Land Forest acquired Reserve by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio* Land Horticultural acquired Monument by a regional conservatory of natur* Landscape acquired Park by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio* Landscape acquired Protection by a Area regional conservatory of natur* Landscapes and Park Natural Monuments of National Impo* Mire Landscapes of National Importance Landscape Protection Area National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo* Natural Monument Mire Landscapes of National Importance Natural Monument or Site National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve

16 Natura 2000 Legend Natura 2000 Natura 2000 Alps Convention EU27 Croatia

17 UNESCO Protection Legend UNESCO WH + BR iucn_prote UNESCO Protection UNESCO Biosphere Reserve UNESCO World Heritage Alps Convention EU27 Croatia

18 IUCN Categories Legend International Union for Conservation of Nature Legend National Protection Designation National Legend IUCN Categories Protection Designation IUCN National Categories Ia Protection Designation IUCN Categories Ia IbIa Strict Nature Reserve Ib Ia IIIb Wilderness Area Ib III II National Park III IV III Natural Monument or Feature IV III VI Habitat/Species Management Area VI IV V Protected Landscape V UA VI Protected Area with Sustainable UA V NA Use of Natural Resources NA UA Alps Convention Alps NA EU27Convention EU27 Alps Convention EU27

19 IUCN Categories Legend Legend International Union for Conservation of Nature Legend UNESCO WH + BR National Protection Designation Legend IUCN Categories National Protection Designation National Protection Designation Ia IUCN Categories iucn_prote UNESCO Biosphere Reserve IUCN Categories Ib Ia Ia Strict Nature Reserve UNESCO World Heritage Legend Ia II Ib Ib Wilderness Area Alps Convention Ib III II Natura 2000 II National Park EU27 II IV III III Natural Monument or Feature Alps Convention III VI IV Croatia IV Habitat/Species Management Area EU27 IV V VI V Protected Landscape VI UA Croatia V VI Protected Area with Sustainable V NA UA Use of Natural Resources UA Alps Convention NA NA EU27Convention Alps Alps Convention EU27 EU27 Sources: combined from EEA - European Environment Agency, WDPA - World Database on Protected Areas, and ALPARC. 19

20 Harmonized Protected Areas Scenario 1 Legend General protection level Prot_scenarios_class Production restrictions Sc1_medium 0High protection 30 Medium protection 50 Low protection

21 Solar & Wind Solar Wind Source: Garegnani et al. Evaluation of wind, solar and hydro energy potential using GRASS, FOSS4G-Europe 2015, July 14th - 17th 2015, Como.

22 Theoretical Potential Solar potential Wind potential

23 Theoretical Potential by Catchment

24 Existing Hydropower Station Source: Carma Own calculation

25 Remaining Potential (1)

26 Remaining Potential (1)

27 Reduced Potential (2)

28 Reduced Potential (2)

29 Reduced Potential Breakdown

30 Abatment cost change Marginal protection cost 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Protection level 30

31 JECAMI 31

32 Summary and Outlook Forests provide a number of essential ecosystem services and the full range of implication of changes in management needs to be considered. The pros and cons of RE production have to be weighted against each other in an integrated and systematic manner while considering trade-offs with ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration or biodiversity).

33 Thank you! More information on IIASA More on BeWhere Contact Sylvain Leduc, 33