2 nd Quarter 2016 Webcast
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1 2 nd Quarter 16 Webcast Presented by Francis A. Scotland Co-Director of Global Macro Research Portfolio Manager, Macro Strategy 16 Investment Management, LLC. All rights reserved. The views expressed herein represent the opinions of, and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be considered a solicitation or an offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so under the laws of that jurisdiction. The information contained in this presentation is obtained from sources believed to be accurate, reliable and current as of the presentation date. will not undertake to supplement, update or revise such information at a later date. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation, investment advice, forecast or guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
2 Commodity Bust and Dollar Bull Market: Flip Side of the Same Coin -16 Industrial Commodity Prices & Trade-Weighted Dollar JP Morgan Real Effective Exchange Rate (Left, Inverted) CRB Raw Industrials Index (Right) As of 7/24/16. Data has been obtained by Thomson Reuters Datastream ( 16, Thomson Reuters) which believes to be accurate and reliable. Charts created by. Please refer to Appendix 1 for important disclosure 2 / brandywineglobal.com
3 Global Reflation 6 5 G6* CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEET G6* CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEET + DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FX RESERVES * INCLUDING US, UK, ECB, JAPAN, CHINA, AND SWITZERLAND As of 7/13/ Data has been obtained by Thomson Reuters Datastream ( 16, Thomson Reuters) which believes to be accurate and reliable. Charts created by. Please refer to Appendix 1 for important disclosure 3 / brandywineglobal.com
4 China Nominal GDP Growth Stabilizing 4 CHINA: NOMINAL GDP GROWTH As of 6/3/16. 5 Data has been obtained by Thomson Reuters Datastream ( 16, Thomson Reuters) which believes to be accurate and reliable. Charts created by. Please refer to Appendix 1 for important disclosure 4 / brandywineglobal.com
5 Due Mainly to Big Government Spending CHINA: FISCAL BALANCE AS % OF GDP % GDP % GDP As of 6/3/ Annual %Chg GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE* 4 GOVERNMENT REVENUE* *Shown as a 6-month moving average As of 6/3/16. Annual %Chg Data has been obtained by Thomson Reuters Datastream ( 16, Thomson Reuters) which believes to be accurate and reliable. Charts created by. Please refer to Appendix 1 for important disclosure 5 / brandywineglobal.com
6 A Rebound in Nominal GDP and Profits is in the Pipeline CHINA: M1 GROWTH AND INDUSTRIAL PROFITS CHINA: M1 GROWTH (3mma, Left) INDUSTRIAL PROFITS (6mma, Right) As of 6/3/16. CHINESE MONEY SUPPLY & GDP 45 4 CHINESE MONEY SUPPLY- M1 (LS, FORWARD 6 MONTHS) CHINA REAL GDP GROWTH (RS) As of 6/3/ Data has been obtained by Thomson Reuters Datastream ( 16, Thomson Reuters) which believes to be accurate and reliable. Charts created by. Please refer to Appendix 1 for important disclosure 6 / brandywineglobal.com
7 Tentative Signs of Improvement in Some Hard Hit EM Economies 1.3 Ratio BRAZIL PMI - NEW ORDERS TO INVENTORY RATIO As of 6/3/16. Data has been obtained by Thomson Reuters Datastream ( 16, Thomson Reuters) which believes to be accurate and reliable. Charts created by. Please refer to Appendix 1 for important disclosure 7 / brandywineglobal.com
8 Tentative Signs of Improvement in Some Hard Hit EM Economies SOUTH AFRICA: BARCLAYS PMI: MANUFACTURING - NEW ORDERS Seasonally adjusted Source: BER (Bureau for Economic Research), South Africa As of 6/3/16 Data has been obtained by Thomson Reuters Datastream ( 16, Thomson Reuters) which believes to be accurate and reliable. Charts created by. Please refer to Appendix 1 for important disclosure 8 / brandywineglobal.com
9 Tentative Signs of Improvement in Some Hard Hit EM Economies RUSSIA: MARKIT PMI: COMPOSITE - NEW ORDERS Seasonally adjusted Source: MARKIT PMI: As of 6/3/16 Data has been obtained by Thomson Reuters Datastream ( 16, Thomson Reuters) which believes to be accurate and reliable. Charts created by. Please refer to Appendix 1 for important disclosure 9 / brandywineglobal.com
10 Tentative Signs of Improvement in Some Hard Hit EM Economies MEXICO: PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI) Not seasonally adjusted Source: INEGI As of 6/3/16 Data has been obtained by Thomson Reuters Datastream ( 16, Thomson Reuters) which believes to be accurate and reliable. Charts created by. Please refer to Appendix 1 for important disclosure 1 / brandywineglobal.com
11 An EM FX Rally Could be Self-Perpetuating EMERGING MARKET* EXCLUDING CHINA BALANCE OF PAYMENT USD(Bn) 25 USD(Bn) Current Account Balance Financial Account - Portfolio Investment Financial Account - FDI *Excluding China. Including Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Malaysia, Russia, SA, Turkey. As of 3/31/16 Data has been obtained by Thomson Reuters Datastream ( 16, Thomson Reuters) which believes to be accurate and reliable. Charts created by. Please refer to Appendix 1 for important disclosure 11 / brandywineglobal.com
12 A Permanent Downshift in Global Growth. Is it Over? OECD: REAL GDP OECD: Real GDP Level Based on -7 Trend Growth As of 3/31/16. Data has been obtained by Thomson Reuters Datastream ( 16, Thomson Reuters) which believes to be accurate and reliable. Charts created by. Please refer to Appendix 1 for important disclosure 12 / brandywineglobal.com
13 Appendix 1 Important Disclosure Information This presentation has been prepared by Investment Management, LLC ( ). It may not be reproduced or used in any form or medium without written permission. The views expressed herein represent the opinions of and are presented for informational purposes only. In rendering portfolio management services, may use the portfolio management services, research and other resources of its affiliates including Investment Management (Europe) Limited. They are not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice and do not take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the investor who receives it. The securities herein may not be suitable for all investors. recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instruments discussed herein and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The views herein are for informational purposes only and represent the opinions of and are not intended to be a recommendation, investment advice, forecast or guarantee of future results. The information should not be considered a solicitation or offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so under the laws of that jurisdiction. The information contained within this presentation is obtained from sources believed to be accurate, reliable and current as of the presentation date. will not undertake to supplement, update or revise such information at a later date. There may be additional risks associated with international investments. International securities may be subject to risks including, but not limited to: market/currency fluctuations, investment risks, and other risks involving foreign economic, political, monetary, taxation, auditing and/or legal factors. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Fixed income securities are subject to credit and interest rate risk. High yield, lower-rated, fixed income securities involve greater risk that investment-grade fixed income securities. Asset-backed, mortgage-backed or mortgage related securities are subject to additional risks such as prepayment and extension risks. High yield bonds possess greater price, volatility, illiquidity, and possibility of default. The aforementioned investments may not be suitable for everyone. believes that transactions in any option, future, commodity, or other derivative product are not suitable for all persons, and that accordingly, clients should be aware of the risks involved in trading such instruments. There may be significant risks which should be considered prior to investing. Derivatives transactions may increase liquidity risk and introduce other significant risk factors of a complex character. All securities trading, whether in stocks, options or other investment vehicles, is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. Certain statements included in this presentation constitute forward looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or include words such as expects, anticipates, plans, believes, estimates, intends, targets, projects, forecasts or negative versions thereof and other similar expressions, or future or conditional verbs such as may, will, should, would and could, and similar expressions to the extent they relate to the Firm. The forward-looking statements are not historical facts but reflect the current expectations regarding future results or events. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from current expectations. s investment process may prove incorrect, which may have a negative impact on performance. Please see attached appendix containing description of indices used in connection with this product. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. The indices do not incur costs including the payment of transaction costs, fees and other expenses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 16, Investment Management, LLC. All rights reserved. 13 / brandywineglobal.com
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