Agenda. The world out there it matters. Insurance realities managing the business. Risk.oh no. Measuring things. We need to invest? And Eat.

Transcription

1 Dynamic Asset Liability Management in Today s Complex Economic Development Peter Ryan-Kane, Managing Director, Head of Portfolio Advisory, Asia Pacific Keith Walter, South East Asia Market Leader & Director Risk Consulting and Software 16 October 2013 Agenda The world out there it matters Insurance realities managing the business Risk.oh no. Measuring things We need to invest? And Eat. 2

2 Background The world out there 3 The Fed has switched targets 4

3 Eurozone scenarios anything from bad to badder 5 In Asia there is a shifting focus on greater intra regional trade with a reduced reliance on Chinese growth Source: Bloomberg, Towers Watson 6

4 But China is very difficult to forecast Certain indicators show improvement, while others are less favourable. Source: Thomson, Towers Watson 7 Emerging market growth overview Emerging Asian and Latin American GDP rebounds from low levels, China stabilises, and European-focused markets continue to suffer Source: Thomson, IMF, Towers Watson * Countries: India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand; Poland, Russia, South Africa, Turkey; Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru. 8

5 It s working Ben Impact of Fed policy 9 Trends of government bond 10-year real yields since 1989 Source: Bloomberg, Towers Watson 10

6 Insurance realities Opportunities and limitations 11 Life Insurance as a Short Straddle Due to guarantees and policyholder optionality on life insurance products, insurers are adversely affected by very low and very high interest rates (or a sharp spike in rates) Life insurers have taken a bet that interest rates might move by a little, but not by a lot 12

7 Results from recent TW CFO Survey show the reason for concern What portion of your total interest sensitive life insurance block (measured by account value) currently has the credited rate set to its minimum guaranteed rate? 13 Impact of changes in interest rates 14

8 Insurance Business Realities 15 16

9 Asset-liability, not assets and liability 17 Balance Sheet View A starting point It s not that simple. The real world introduces risk deviations or uncertainty in meeting the objectives 18

10 Risk View Risk tolerance and budgeting 19 Balance Sheet View - Revisited 20

11 Investment Result Insurance Result 21 Building Deterministic Scenarios and Full Stochastic Projections 22

12 Risk Neutral and Real World ESGs 23 Case study: Yield curves 24

13 Case study: Yield curves 25 Case Study: Defaults and Correlations 26

14 Case Study: Defaults 27 SAA Qualitative analysis 28

15 SAA - combining qualitative analysis with modelling 29 30

16 The Universe of Assets 31 Many ways to build a portfolio 32

17 ways to make your portfolio work harder 33 It is not just about equities and bonds 34

18 The optimal risk/return habitat 35 36

19 ALM Decision Framework 37 38