Alberta s Energy Markets: Opportunities and Challenges

Transcription

1 Alberta s Energy Markets: Opportunities and Challenges Matthew Foss Alberta Department of Energy Economics and Markets Branch Presented to Economic Real Estate Forum May 2012

2 The Big Picture Key findings in the IEO 2011 Reference case: World Energy consumption increases by 53% between 2008 and 2035 with half of the increase attributed to China and India Renewables are the world s fastest growing energy source, at 2.8% per year, renewables share of world energy grows to roughly 15% in Fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80% of world energy use in Liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, but the oil share of total energy declines to 28% in 2035, as sustained high oil prices dampen demand and encourage fuel switching where possible and modest use of liquid biofuels. 2

3 Alberta s Natural Gas Resources World Proved Natural Gas Reserves (Tcf): Russia: 1,680 Iran: 1,046 Qatar: 896 Saudi Arabia: 276 Global Natural Gas Production (Bcf/d): United States: 59.1 Russia: 57 Canada: 15.5 Iran: Tcf Alberta s Natural Gas Industry is Well Placed with Abundant Resource Opportunities 100 Tcf 141 Tcf Source: Energy Resource Conservation Board, Petrel Robertson, Gas Technology Institute (GTI) GIP: Gas in Place is the total gas volume believed to be contained in the reservoir. NGC: Natural gas from coal (CBM) Source: Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas 3

4 Alberta s Crude Oil Proved Reserves World Oil Reserves State owned or controlled Accessible Oil Reserves Accessible Canada s Oil Sands 51% 49% Other Accessible Reserves Alberta s Oil Sands represent more than half of the world s oil resources that are 4

5 Alberta s Crude oil and Natural Gas Activity 5

6 Investment On the Rise 13

7 Millions Alberta P & NG Land Sales Bonuses $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 AB BC SK MB $500 $

8 Alberta Drilling Activity Source: GeoScout Increasing horizontal drilling reflecting shift towards unconventional oil and gas development in shale and tight plays Activity has shifted towards tight oil in Alberta 11

9 Focus Areas Vertical Wells Horizontal Wells Total Wells Drilled Jan - Feb 2011 = 1326 Jan - Feb 2012 = % Jan - Feb 2011 Vertical Wells Drilled = 848 Jan - Feb 2012 Vertical Wells Drilled = % Jan - Feb 2011 Horizontal Wells Drilled = 478 Jan - Feb 2010 Horizontal Wells Drilled = 522 9% Excludes oil sands wells 12

10 Production and demand (10 6 m 3 /d) Production and demand (bcf/d) Alberta Natural Gas Production Forecast (not including unconventional natural gas) Total marketable gas production & demand Global Production (Bcf/d) United States: 59.1 Russia: 57 Canada: 15.5 Iran: 13.4 Qatar: YTD Actual: Down 1.5% 2012 Forecast: Down 5.3% Alberta gas removals Other Alberta demand Commercial demand Residential demand

11 Alberta Conventional Crude and Oil Sands Production Alberta s total oil production: 2.05 million b/d of bitumen SCO conventional World oil production as of November 2011: 88.1 million barrels per day Alberta s Crude Oil Production is Ramping Up 8

12 Conventional Crude Oil Production Forecast YTD Actual: Up 17.2% 2012 Forecast: Up 10% Source: Energy Resource Conservation Board Horizontal Drilling/Shale Oil Production to outperforming expectations

13 Alberta s Crude oil and Natural Gas Markets 5

14 Current Alberta Natural Gas Markets New Shale Gas Production Impeding on Alberta s Traditional Eastern Markets WCSB 14.4 Bcf/d Alberta production in 2010: 11.5 (bcf/d) Alberta Disposition 2010 US Rockies 10 Bcf/d Bison Marcellus 1 Bcf/d Market Bcf per Day PADD PADD PADD PADD Legend Light Blue WCSB Gas Production Dark Blue US Gas Production Source: Source: WoodMcKenzie 2009 ; ERCB 2010, Barnett & Haynesville 6 Bcf/d Gulf 15.8 Bcf/d PADD Eastern Canada 1.76 Western Canada 1.07 Total

15 Global Natural Gas Prices and LNG Infrastructure Source: FERC. World LNG Estimated April 2012 Landed Prices. March 6,

16 Current Alberta Crude Oil Markets Market Alberta Exports (Barrels Per Day 000 s) PADD 1 59 PADD 2 1,167 PADD 3 78 Kinder Morgan TMX Capacity: 300,000 b/d (80% AB Crude) 80% light crude, 20% heavy, small amount of refined products Kinder Morgan Express Capacity: 280,000 b/d (98% AB Crude) 35% light crude, 65% heavy Crude Oil Demand from Western Canada (refinery capacity in parenthesis) Barrels per day 000 s Enbridge Mainline Capacity: 2.3 m b/d (60% AB crude) 50% heavy/light crude Currently, there is ample amount of pipeline to carry Alberta crude to its current market (PADD 2) However, refinery capacity and increased North American crude production are the limiting factors in PADD 2 for the future PADD PADD Eastern Canada 252 Western Canada 47 Total 1,927 Source: CAPP 2011 Crude oil Market Outlook PADD [2,730] PADD [613] Increased heavy crude oil refining capacity Alberta s Crude Oil Market Limited to U.S. Mid West Huge Potential in U.S. Gulf Coast PADD [8,928] PADD 2 1,215 [3,711] Eastern Canada 258 [398] PADD 1 62 [1,394] Increasing supplies from Bakken, heavy crude from Alberta, and crude oil from PADD III 19

17 Global Crude Oil Prices Alaska North Slope $ North Sea Brent $ Suez Blend $ ESPO $ Japan Cocktail $ WTI USGC $ Arab Light $ Masa Venezuela $ Colombia Cusiana $ West Africa Strip $ Saharan Blend $ Australia Cossack $ April 2012

18 Current Alberta Refined Products Markets (Diesel, Gasoline and Jet Fuel) Alberta Exports Unlike Crude Oil, Alberta Has Limited Access to U.S. Mid West for its Refined Products PADD MBD PADD 2 Eastern Canada Exports PADD MBD PADD 1 Source: EIA, 2011 data PADD MBD Global Imports

19 Barrels Per Day Barrels Per Day Barrels Per Day Trucked/Railed volumes are estimated Alberta Refined Products Refining Capacity Alberta Refineries - Capacity A) Imperial 187,000 B/D B) Suncor -135,000 B/D C) Shell 110,000 B/D 36,000 B/D by pipeline; 14,000 B/D by truck C B A 38,000 B/D by pipeline; 3,000 B/D by truck/rail 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, , , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000-30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Alberta consumption Alberta Production Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Other province Consumption Source: StatsCan, Enbridge, Kinder Morgan

20 Thank You 23