Canada s Oil & Natural Gas

Transcription

1 Canada s Oil & Natural Gas Greg Stringham March 2011 Global Energy Demand continues to grow Significant energy demand growth: Population, standards of living Need all forms of energy: Increasing role for renewables Continuing reliance on hydrocarbons Increasing role for nonconventional crude oil & natural gas Environmental challenges Technology is a key lever for sustainable growth Current Policies Scenario 1

2 Energy Demand in China & North America North America China 3000 Mtoe Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Current Policies Scenario Canada s Oil & Gas Resource Profile Canada: 3 rd largest in global oil reserves 3 rd largest natural gas producer 6 th largest crude oil producer 25% of all private Canadian investment 25% of value of Canada s Stock Exchange 2

3 Canada s Oil & Natural Gas Industry Top 15 Canadian Producers Canadian Industry = 500 producer companies and 2,500 service providers Company Production boe/d 1. Canadian Natural Resources 2. Suncor Energy 3. ExxonMobil (incl. Imperial Oil) 4. Husky Oil 5. ConocoPhillips Canada s Oil & Natural Gas Industry 6. Cenovus Energy 543, , , , , , Encana Corp. 232, Shell Canada 219, Devon Corp. 204, PennWest Energy 166, Talisman Energy 122, Canadian Oil Sands 108, Taqa North 100, Apache Canada 80, Pengrowth Corp. 75,000 International Companies Active in Canada United States Asia Europe Middle East Apache Canada BP Canada China Investment Corp. JACOS (JAPEX) BP Shell TAQA North Chevron Canada ConocoPhillips Korea Investment Corp. Korea National Oil Co. Statoil Total E&P Devon Canada EOG Resources Canada Inc. PetroChina PTT Exploration & Production (Thailand) ExxonMobil Sinopec Marathon Oil Murphy Oil 3

4 Canada s Crude Oil Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country billion barrels Includes 170 billion barrels of oil sands reserves World Oil Reserves State controlled 78% Accessible Accessible Oil Reserves Canada s Oil Sands Other Accessible Reserves % 48% 0 Saudi Arabia Venezuela Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait Abu Dhabi Russia Libya Nigeria Kazhakhstan Qatar Ch ina United States Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec

5 Canada s Oil Sands Oil Sands Projects in Three Deposits Fort Hills Horizon Joslyn Creek Syncrude Kearl Lake Northern Lights Muskeg River Albian Dover Firebag Peace River Seal MacKay River Suncor Fort McMurray Jackpine Peace River Hangingstone White Sands Long Lake Surmont Christina Lake (CVE) Jackfish Foster Creek Cold Lake Hilda Lake In Situ Projects Mining Projects Wolf Lake/Primrose Tucker Lake Cold Lake 5

6 Two Methods of Oil Sands Recovery Reserves: 80% Drilling and 20% Mining Land: 97% Drilling and 3% Mining Photo: ConocoPhillips - Surmont Drilling Mining Schematic: Devon - Jackfish Canadian Oil Sands and Conventional Production May

7 Resources to Reserves Production Costs (including a carbon tax of $50 per tonne CO 2 equiv. emissions) Production cost (2008 USD) Already produced MENA Conv. oil Other Conv. oil C O 2 E O R All Deep Water O T H. E O R Arctic Heavy Oil Bitumen Oil Shales Resource available in billion barrels GTL CTL BTL Ethanol Biodiesel OECD/IEA 2009 Canadian & U.S. Crude Oil Pipeline Proposals 7

8 Potential Tanker Markets for Canadian Oil Sands Production Prince Rupert/Kitimat Persian Gulf Korea Japan China Japan Taiwan Taiwan 3,840 ~ 4,500 N Miles ~ 8,600 N Miles 1,400 N Miles Los Angeles Los Angeles 1,790 Jose/ Jose/ SantaCruz La Cruz La Cruz ~ 5,400 N Miles Far East Target Markets U.S West Coast Competitive travel distances for Canadian supply to both markets Source: Enbridge Pipelines Exports can be a variety of products Heavy Oil Light Upgraded Oil Petroleum Products 8

9 Access to the West Coast (offshore markets) Existing Transmountain shipments over the dock YTD 2010 = 83,000 b/d Peak April 2010 = 143,000 b/d Future Transmountain TMX2 80,000 b/d TMX3 320,000 b/d Northern Leg 400,000 b/d Enbridge Gateway 525,000 b/d NEB application filed Global Energy Related GHG Emissions Global Emissions Canada s 2% China 21% OECD Europe 15% Non-OECD Europe & Eurasia 10% Japan 4% India 5% Other Fossil Fuel* Service Industries 5% 8% Residential 7% Conventional Oil & Gas Production 12% Oil Sands 5% Canada 2% Agriculture 10% Electricity 16% Australia/New Zealand 2% United States 20% Other 21% Transportation 22% Manufacturing & Heavy Industry 15% GHG emissions from oil sands: less than 1/1000th of global GHG emissions 39% reduction in intensity since

10 Responsible Environmental Development Reducing GHG Emissions Using less energy input Use energy more efficiently Capturing CO2 Governments investing over $3 billion partners with industry Water Increasing water recycle Using saline water for steam Land New tailings technologies accelerate reclamation Smaller footprint and faster reclamation g co2 eq./mj Oil Sands GHG Emissions/bbl 39% Canada s Natural Gas 10

11 Natural Gas Resources Major Changes New Shale Gas Shale gas supply a gamechanger Technology breakthroughs New producing regions North America has a surplus of natural gas Canadian Natural Gas Resource is Growing 2000 Produced 2010 Produced Remaining Remaining 390 TCF* 70 years of supply Shale/Tight/CBM TCF* 100+ years of supply *Estimates include Alberta s TCF Technological advances have unlocked vast unconventional gas resources. *Estimated Recoverable Marketable Gas: Source: CSUG 11

12 Canadian and U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines Proposed Kitimat LNG Project PG&E SoCal Westcoast Northwest ANG/ Foothills PGT Northwest Kern River TransCanada Alberta (NGTL) Foothills Alliance TransCanada Transmission Mainline Great NorthernLakes Border Trailblazer ANR NGPL Panhandle Transwestern ANR El Paso NGPL El Paso Vector Texas Eastern TQ&M CNG Transcontinental M&NE Iroquois PNGTS Algonquin Kitimat Liquefied Natural Gas Project British Columbia Source: Kitimat LNG 12

13 Total Canadian Natural Gas Production C$5.50 price assumption Bcfd North Atlantic Shale Tight CBM Conventional Solution Gas Canada s Equipment and Service Providers Canada has a strong oil and natural gas equipment and oil field services sector Over 2500 companies Providing drilling equipment and services Drilling fluids, chemicals, drill bits, etc. Production testing and well servicing Pipe and coating manufacturers Environmental and safety services Consulting services Strong technology and innovation focus Increasing recovery, accessing new resources, lowering costs, lower environmental footprint and safe operations Photos: PSAC 13

14 Canada s Oil & Natural Gas Providing Energy Security Safe, secure and reliable energy Ensuring Environmental Stewardship Stringent government regulations Performance, Technology Generating Economic Benefits New jobs and businesses Royalty and taxes for Governments Supplementary Slides 14

15 Oil Sands Transactions Year Buyer Seller Project Value $MM 2010 Korea Investment Corp OSUM $100 PTT Expl. & Prod. Statoil Canada 40% Kai Kos Dehseh $2,280 China Investment Corp. Penn West 45% Seal Project JV C$817 Sinopec ConocoPhillips 9% Syncrude $4650 BP p.l.c. Value Creation 75% Terre de Grace $900 Devon BP 50% Kirby $ Suncor/Petro-Canada Merger (C$19.3 billion) Incl. oil sands assets Korean National Oil Co. Harvest Energy Incl. oil sands assets Petro China Investment Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. 60% MacKay River & Dover C$1900 Imperial/ExxonMobil UTS 50% Lease 421 $ Nexen OPTI Canada 15% Long Lake and Future $735 Occidental Petroleum Enerplus 15% Joslyn $500 Total Synenco Synenco $ BP Husky Sunrise JV $1163 Petro-Can/Teck Cominco UTS 10% Fort Hills $740 Marathon Western Oil Sands Company $6200 MEG Paramount Surmont $281 Statoil NAOSC Company $2000 Teck Cominco UTS 50% Lease 14 $177 Enerplus Kirby Oil Sands 90% of Company $158 Note: US$ unless stated otherwise 15