The BRICS in 9 graphs

Transcription

1 The BRICS in 9 graphs With support from the CS Mott Foundation

2 Intro to BRICS charts BRICS is one of several blocs of large developing countries that has emerged over the past decade as a potential force to challenge the status quo. Including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the leaders of BRICS countries have been meeting annually since Together they represent about 40% of the world s population and about 25% of global GDP. BRICS has spawned new institutions, most notably the New Development Bank (sometimes referred to as the BRICS Bank) and new agreements such as the Contingency Reserve Agreement (a sort of mini-international Monetary Fund). While some of the rhetoric around these new structures implies that they will be challenging "Washington Consensus" policies of liberalization, privatization and budget austerity, it s not clear that they are actually moving in that direction. Many of the actual policies of the institutions, such as the CRA s requirement that countries have an IMF agreement to access more than 30% of their allotted funding, or the NDB s stated focus on infrastructure investment, may replicate existing problems with the international financial architecture. But the fact that these countries are coming into their own does change the global picture significantly. With a bloc of the biggest and richest developing countries flexing its global muscles, there is increasing space for poorer countries to negotiate better terms for agreements related to trade, aid, and investment. Hopefully those countries will also have more opportunities to move beyond the resource economy and to climb the ladder of industrialization that separates developed from developing economies. The graphs below illustrate why we should be paying attention to the BRICS bloc.

3 50 Trillion 37.5 Trillion 25 Trillion 12.5 Trillion 42.4 Combined G Combined BRICS 22.5 USA 16.2 China (Nominal GDP) How Big is Big? Real GDP in the BRICS and the G7 countries Values shown in trillions nominal USD. Source: G7 Countries BRICS Countries Japan (2nd Largest G7) India Brazil Russia South Africa

4 $60,000 $45,000 $30,000 $15,000 54,598 50,379 47,589 45,853 44,538 45,016 36,331 35,823 USA Canada Germany UK France Japan Italy Average G7 8,045 Average BRICS GDP Per Capita Values shown in nominal USD. G7 Countries BRICS Countries 12,925 11,604 7,589 6,482 1,626 Russia Brazil China SA India

5 1.2 Billion 0.9 Billion 0.6 Billion 0.3 Billion 1,114,232,200 Absolute Poverty In BRICS countires Indicator: Number of poor at $4 a day (PPP). 1 in 4 people living in a BRICS country earns less than $4/day. Source: World Bank Poverty and inequality Database: databank.worldbank.org/ data/views/variableselection/selectvariables.aspx?source=poverty-andinequality-database 659,967,830 41,360,000 25,931,400 7,450,235 India China Brazil South Africa Russia

6 90% 67.5% 45.0% 22.5% Poverty Rates BRICS vs non-brics countries Indicator: Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP), (% of population). India SA China Brazil Russia

7 90% 67.5% 45.0% 22.5% Poverty Rates BRICS vs non-brics countries Indicator: Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP), (% of population). Zambia Bangladesh Laos Tajikistan Colombia

8 60% 45% 30% 15% 56% 52% How focused on infrastructure is the New Development Bank The New Development Bank says that it will have a focus on infrastructure. In doing so, it s largely in keeping with other development institutions that invest heavily in the infrastructure sector. 33% 33% China Development Bank Asian Development Bank Brazil s National Development Bank World Bank

9 70% 52.5% 35.0% 17.5% Income Inequality in BRICS Countries The fall in income poverty in BRICS countries has not been matched by a fall in income inequality. The data is the GINI index (World Bank estimate) India SA China Brazil Russia

10 ,706 BRICS Investments in Africa A lot of the rhetoric about the need for a New Development Bank highlights the perceived underdevelopment of the African continent. This chart illustrates how much BRICS countries are already investing into the African continent. FDI flows abroad, by geographical destination (millions USD) year = 2012 Source: unctad.org/en/pages/diae/fdi%20statistics/fdi-statistics-bilateral.aspx 2,517 G7 Countries BRICS Countries 1,829 1, USA China India South Africa Brazil Russia

11 Mozambique Laos Bangladesh Colombia Tajikistan Gender Inequality in BRICS countries The data is Gender Inequality Index Value, 2013 Source: hdr.undp.org/en/content/table-4-gender-inequality-index Other Countries BRICS Countries India SA Brazil Russia China