THE EFFECTS OF AIR CONDITIONING ON THE SUMMER

Transcription

1 THE EFFECTS OF AIR CONDITIONING ON THE SUMMER PEAK ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND THE ROLE OF PV Inga Doemland, Australian National University (ANU) 4 April Air Conditioning stock and electricity consumption [%] [TW Wh] Reverse cycle/heat pump Evaporative Penetration of AC Electricity consumption forecast AC (TWh) Refrigerated (cools only) Other AC penetration forecast Source: Bureau of statistics; Energy Efficient Strategies (28): Energy use in the Australian residential sector ; Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (212): Economic analysis of end-use energy intensity in Australia. 2 2

2 Peak electricity demand on the NEM [MW W] NSW QLD VIC SA TAS Data source: Half hourly demand data downloaded from AEMO website: Load duration curve of Germany Source: Consentec and R2b 21, Voraussetungen einer optimalen Integration erneuerbarer Energien in das Stromversorgungssystem 4 4

3 CORRELATION BETWEEN ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND AIR CONDITIONING DEMAND 5 5 Correlation between electricity demand and cooling demand in summer Cooling demand is represented by T out or h h is the enthalpy difference between outdoor air and indoor set conditions (e.g. 24 C and 5% rel. humidity) Electricity market data downloaded from NEM from , weather data bought from BOM (weather conditions 1hr & solar exposure.5hr) States are represented by capital cities Correlation coefficient from data points every 3 min Summer: 1 st November 31 st March 6 6

4 Correlation: NSW weather peak demand 1 Correlation coefficient /6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 NSW correl Tair, ElecD NSW correl dh,elecd, 4-8pm NSW correl dh,elecd NSW correl Tair,ElecD, 4-8pm 7 7 Correlation: QLD weather peak demand 1 Correlation coefficient /6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 QLD correl Tair, ElecD QLD correl dh,elecd QLD correl Tair,ElecD, 4-8pm QLD correl dh,elecd, 4-8pm 8 8

5 Correlation: SA weather peak demand Correlation coefficient /6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 SA correl Tair, ElecD SA correl dh,elecd SA correl Tair,ElecD, 4-8pm SA correl dh,elecd, 4-8pm 9 9 Correlation: VIC weather peak demand Correlatio on coefficient /6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 VIC correl Tair, ElecD VIC correl Tair,ElecD, 4-8pm VIC correl dh,elecd VIC correl dh,elecd, 4-8pm 1 1

6 Maximum summer demand vs. weather Maxim mum summer de emand [MW] /5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 NSW days T > 38 C QLD days T > 38 C VIC days T > 38 C SA days T > 38 C NSW QLD VIC SA f ambient air rature >38 C Days of temper IMPACTS OF PV ON THE SUMMER ELECTRICITY DEMAND 12 12

7 The PV model Total installed capacity (Source: Clean energy council) 5% Shading factor % Each system: 2.5 kw p Weather stations with relevant data from Capitals represent PV generation of state Solar exposure (blue) = radiation levels had to be adjusted for capitals where no data was available (Canberra, Sydney, Hobart) Adelaide Rockhampton Melbourne Wagga Wagga 14 14

8 Solar exposure factors Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Hobart vs Melbourne Canberra v.s Wagga Wagga Sydney vs Wagga Wagga Jan Jul Model of PV system Relatively rough PV model! Did PV have any effect on the maximum summer electricity demand? Did the correlation between electricity demand and air conditioning demand change? 16 16

9 Change of summer maximum electricity demand 6.% 4.% 2.%.% Maximum demand NSW Maximum demand VIC Maximum demand TAS Maximum demand QLD Maximum demand SA Impact of PV on the correlation between air conditioning demand and electricity demand 6.% 4.% 2.%.% -2.% 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 NSW correl Tair, ElecD QLD correl Tair, ElecD SA correl Tair, ElecD VIC correl Tair, ElecD 18 18

10 Discussion How relevant is a change of less than 6%? Will PV solve the peak demand issue? What can solar thermal cooling offer? Thanks for your attention! All figures without reference are from Doemland (213): The effects of air conditioning on the summer peak electricity demand and the role of PV 2

11 Psychrometric chart 21 21