Understanding what is happening to electricity demand

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1 Understanding what is happening to electricity demand Hugh Saddler Centre for Climate Economics and Policy Seminar Crawford School, ANU 26 August 2015

2 TWh TWh Changes in sent out electricity since 2006 Absolute changes in electricity demand by State Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 NSW Vic Qld SA Tas WA Relative changes in electricity demand by State 20% 10 15% % 4 5% 2 0% % -4-10% % -10 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 NSW Vic Qld SA Tas WA Total NEM (TWh, RH axis)

3 Winter 2005 Summer Winter 2006 Summer Winter 2007 Summer Winter 2008 Summer Winter 2009 Summer Winter 2010 Summer Winter 2011 Summer Winter 2012 Summer Winter 2013 Summer Winter 2014 Summer Winter 2015 Level relative to Winter 2005 Peak demand since Seasonal peak electricity demand by State 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% NSW Vic Qld SA WA

4 Index, 1998 = 1 The absolute decline is less important than the reduction from the previous rate of growth Electricity demand in the NEM since 1998 (ESAA data) Total energy Energy per capita

5 Understanding the components of the system Supply Generated by large (NEM) generators Small Non-Scheduled Generators (embedded in networks) Sent out by rooftop PV Behind the meter from rooftop PV Demand Auxiliary loads Transmission losses Distribution losses Large industrial consumers Residential + Commercial consumers General business Residential

6 NEM demand by major consumer category

7 TWh Factors affecting Residential and Commercial demand Year ending June Residential + Commercial SNSG PV Energy efficiency savings

8 MWh Index, = 1 Trends in residential electricity demand by state Residential electricity demand per customer Relative changes in residential electricity demand per customer NSW ACT Victoria Queensland SA Tasmania NEM average NSW ACT Victoria Queensland SA Tasmania Total NEM

9 MWh per million $ GSP Index, = 1 Trends in general business electricity demand by state General business electricity demand per $ of real Gross State Product Relative changes in general business electricity demand per $ of real Gross State Product NSW 0.95 NSW ACT Victoria Queensland SA ACT Victoria Queensland SA 20 Tasmania 0.75 Tasmania 0 Total NEM 0.70 Total NEM

10 Index, = 1 Trends in real prices (CPI data) NSW ACT Victoria Queensland SA Tasmania

11 Explaining the trends residential Regulated energy efficiency is particularly important Price increases, but with either a long response delay or a change in elasticity, or both Changes in residential electricity consuming behaviour are more than just a response to price Very wide variation in consumption per household indicates scope for further reductions But new and different policies are likely to be needed Worst case is likely to be constant consumption per household total will grow in line with population Switch away from gas and uptake of electric vehicles could see demand growth resume

12 Weekly kwh Weekly kwh Some preliminary results from analysis of individual records from ABS , Household Energy Consumption Survey (with assistance form Joshua Brown) (1) Weekly electricity consumption by income 200 Victoria: all households with gas 200 Victoria: all households without gas ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Weekly disposable income ($) 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Weekly disposable income ($)

13 0 50 (2) The effect of fuel choice for water heating on total electricity consumption Gas vs No Gas Water Heating NSW VIC QLD SA WA No Gas Others Gas Others No Gas Bottom Quintile Gas Bottom Quintile

14 (3) Relationship of electricity consumption to dwelling type Energy Consumption by Dwelling Type 0 Q5 Rest Q5 Rest Q5 Rest Q5 Rest Q5 Rest NSW VIC QLD SA WA Separate house Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse etc. with one Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse etc. with two Flat, unit or apartment in a 1 or 2 storey block Flat, unit or apartment in a 3 storey block Flat, unit or apartment in a 4 or more storey block Flat, unit or apartment attached to a house Caravan, houseboat, improvised home and house or flat attach

15 Explaining the trends general business Scope for behaviour change to reduce business consumption in the short term is generally less than for residential consumption Decreasing business demand per $ implies increasing energy efficiency/productivity and/or structural change None of these sectors are particularly electricity intensive, so structural change unlikely to be important Difficult to see a strong relationship with price changes Is the apparent increase in total demand in due to residential or business or both?

16 Three projections of future demand for electricity by large industry in the NEM

17 Three projections of future total demand for electricity in the NEM

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