EUMEDION, 12 okt Lange Voorhout EE The Hague The Netherlands Website:

Transcription

1 Grondstoffen EUMEDION, 12 okt 2011 Lange Voorhout EE The Hague The Netherlands Website:

2 Population exponential growth Population by billion GDP from US$35 to 72 trillion by 2030 Water demand to increase 30% by 2030 Energy demand doubled by 2030 GHG emissions decrease 50-80% by 2050 Cereal demand: + 67% by 2050 Land deficit by million ha

3 Interdependencies

4 Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (NIC 2008) Global Governance2025: At A CriticalJuncture(NIC 2010) Certain US less dominant Rise BRICS etc Emerging informal Groupings(G-20) Powershifttowardsnon-state actors Population growth(+1.2 billion 2025) Youth bulges become dangerous Uncertain Collaboration world community Development regional hegomons and regional stability Speed of transition toward sustainable energy Speed & impact climate change

5 Systemic changes The emergence of non-western countries can lead to: Instability, because multipolarity not stable per definition Declining shaping power of the West, weaker legal framework and effectiveness of institutions More black holes in (regions of) failed states Growing instability as consequence of struggle over minerals, energy and effects of climate change. Soft power of China: autocratic, resource rich countries and against resource poor democracies Question: How will emerging powers handle geopolitical aspects of scarce resources, how will the West react and what is the relation between scarcity and local/regional stability?

6 Why commodities matter again Commodities are key part of the story, with: high price levels and strong volatility tight markets and supply-side constraints states and their proxies (SWFs, SOEs, regulatory bodies) as key actors in markets added factor climate change debate Intense politicization and securitization of commodity markets Commodities as key strategic issue in a multipolar world Emerging nexus of environmental, economic & security policy

7 Scarcity: sourceof conflicts Angola ( ): oil, diamond DRC (1996-?): copper, coltan, diamond, cobalt, wood, tin, oil Ivory Coast ( ): diamond, cacao, cotton Liberia ( ): wood, diamond, iron, palm oil, cacao, coffee, rubber, gold Senegal: wood, cashew nuts Sierra Leone ( ), diamond, cacao, coffee Sudan ( ): oil Examples: Africa according to UNEP

8 Fact Sheet UN Environment Programme Since 1990, at least 18 violent conflicts have been fuelled by the exploitation of natural resources. 40% of all intrastate conflicts since 1960 have a link to natural resources. Intrastate conflicts linked to natural resources are twice as likely to relapse to conflict in five years. Less than a quarter of peace negotiations aiming to resolve conflicts with links to natural resources have addressed resource management mechanisms.

9 Examples: recent Chinese investments in Africa Sudan: 40% of its oil goes to China Guinea: negotiations over 7 billion investments in infrastructure-forminerals (oil, bauxite, iron ore) Liberia: treaty of 2.6 billion iron ore exploitation Nigeria: negotiations for 15% of oil reserves exploitation ($30-50 billion) Niger: loan of $95 million for uranium mine DRC: $9 billion deal for infrastructure-for-minerals Angola: 40% van oil goes to China Rwanda: loan of $250 million for infrastructure-for-minerals South Africa: biggest trade partner. Part: 20% in Standard Bank. Zimbabwe: loans ($950million), weapon deals and MOU for nickel, copper and cobalt

10 Element Rare Earth Elements: example for the rest? Main Applications DYSPROSIUM(DY) LANTHANUM(LA) NEODYMIUM(ND) GALLIUM(GA) GERMANIUM(GE) INDIUM(IN) PERMANENT MAGNETS: ELECTRICAL VEHICLES; WIND TURBINES NICKEL-METAL HYBRID BATTERIES: ELECTRICAL VEHICLES PERMANENT MAGNETS: ELECTRICAL VEHICLES; WIND TURBINES SEMICONDUCTORS; SOLAR ENERGY CELLS; LEDS; DEFENSE APPLICATIONS SEMICONDUCTORS; SOLAR ENERGY CELLS; LEDS; FIBER-OPTICS; INFRA-RED LIQUID CRYSTAL DISPLAYS(LCD); SEMICONDUCTOR; SOLAR ENERGY CELLS; LEDS ANTIMONY(SB) SOLDER, SEMICONDUCTORS TUNGSTEN(W) MAGNESIUM(MG) VANADIUM(V) MOLYBDENUM(MO) HIGH-PERFORMANCE STEEL(STRENGTH, HEAT RESISTANCE); E.G. INDUSTRIAL CUTTING TOOLS HIGH-PERFORMANCE STEEL( LIGHT-WEIGHT, MALLEABILITY ); E.G. CAR-BODIES, AIRPLANES HIGH-PERFORMANCE STEEL(ANTICORROSION, HEAT/SHOCK/VIBRATION RESISTANCE); E.G. JET ENGINES HIGH-PERFORMANCE STEEL(ANTICORROSION, HEAT/WEAR RESISTANCE); E.G. ROCKET ENGINES

11 Global production Rare Earth oxides Source: Öko Institute: Rare Earth study; (Angerer et al 2009)

12 Economie en veiligheid

13 Government Intervention in Rare Metal Markets Rare metals are especially prominent in the resource debate due to: Western import dependence & crucial role of China indispensability for high-& green-tech applications inelasticity & concentration of supply fast-growing & highly volatile demand This creates supply security concerns and makes (some) metals into strategic resources! The strategic value & political economy of each metal is unique, evolving rapidly, and

14 European Policy Response to Rare Metals debate Raw Materials Initiative (RMI) led by DG Enterprise & Industry resulted in the 2008 Communication with focus on non-energy mineral resources: Ensure equal access for European industry globally Promote supply expansion from European sources Boost resource efficiency and recycling Follow-up EU criticality study released June 2010: Examines 41 minerals and metals with 14 labeled as critical Recommends to tailor policy responses for each critical material Extensive consultation process has just been wrapped up

15 EU Raw Materials Strategy The Communication adopted on 2 February 2011 reinforces the EU s raw materials strategy built on the 3 pillars of the Raw Materials Initiative: 1) Ensure a level playing field in access to resource in third countries 2) Foster sustainable supply of raw materials from EU sources 3) Boost resource efficiency and promote recycling An integrated strategy which outlines new actions in the area of non-energy, non-agricultural raw materials

16 Critical Raw Materials for the EU Source: EC, DG Enterprise and Industry Critical Raw Materials for the EU Brussels, 2010.

17 Topsectoren en grondstoffen High Tech materialen en systemen: Germaniumin optische kabels en optische infrarood technologieën; ceriumin computers; antimoon, niobiumen tantaalinmicrocondensatoren; ijzererts, cokes, injectiekolen, tin en zinkertsen voor staal; bauxiet/aluinaardevoor aluminium; zilver, goud en koper voor elektronische apparatuur; wolfraam, niobium, vanadium, nikkel, mangaan en chroom voor speciale staalsoorten. Energie: Neodymium, dysprosium en samarium in permanentmagneten; indium, gallium, seleen en telluurin zonnecellen; platina in brandstofcellen; europium, yttrium, galliumen indiumin LED-verlichting; lithium, kobalt en zeldzame aardmetalen in batterij-technologie; biomassavoor energieopwekking Logistiek:Lithium en neodymiumin elektrische auto s; kobalt en samariumin hoge snelheidstreinen; scandium-legeringenin lichtgewicht vliegtuigframes; magnesiumvoormetaallegeringen in auto s; platina, palladium en rhodium in auto-uitlaatgaskatalysatoren;

18 Topsectoren en grondstoffen Agro-Food: Fosfaatvoor kunstmest, sojavoor veevoeder, palmolie, cacao, koffie, specerijen, vis(meel) Tuinbouw en uitgangsmaterialen: Veenals substraat t.b.v. plantveredeling en kweek Creatieve industrie: Niobium, antimoon en tantaalin computerchips; zeldzame aardmetalen zoals yttrium- europium, terbiumen indiumin LCD-technologie Life-sciences: Tantaal in medische technologie Chemie: Platina en palladium in katalysatoren; kobalt in synthetische brandstof; zeldzame aardmetalen als katalysatoren Water: Palladiumvoor ontzilting; houtvoor damwanden, steigers en meerpalen

19 Risico management Bedrijfsleven Aanpassing risicomanagement: geen extrapolatie van historische data Data geven niet meer dan klein deel van de werkelijkheid weer Nieuwe risico s liggen veeluit buiten gezichtsveld Verwevenheid van economie en veiligheid. Risk management modellen niet baseren op extrapolatie, maar op ervaringen uit het verleden, historische analogieën, analyse van internationale betrekkingen en het onderkennen van known unknowns en unknown unknowns.

20 Conclusies Toenemend staatskapitalisme, protectionisme en (grondstoffen)nationalisme leidt tot toenemende overheidsrelaties. Overheden worden meer faciliterendvoor bedrijfsleven. Noodzakelijk is een betere strategische integratie van overheid en bedrijfsleven. Innovatie alleen is niet voldoende. Het is onvoldoende voor bedrijven om investeringen alleen op zuiver economische elementen te beoordelen. (Veiligheids) politiek-economische risicoanalyse is cruciaal.

21 The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies J.G.M. (Michel) Rademaker MTL Deputy Director, Market and Operations T: +31 (0) E: M: +31 (0) hcssnl Linkedin Facebook Visiting and Postal Address: Lange Voorhout 16, 2514 EE Den Haag, The Netherlands

22 HCSS office Lange Voorhout EE The Hague The Netherlands Tel: Mail: Website: hcssnl Linkedin Facebook Preview at the venue

23 More info Platform Mineral Scarcity There is a LinkedIn for the platform on material scarcity on Reports

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