Meteorological forecasting
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1 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteorological forecasting Introduction to the COSMO model Urs Germann Head Radar/Satellite/Nowcasting,, Locarno-Monti Thanks go to the COSMO group and M Betschart for excellent material which helped me a lot to compile this lecture.
2 Many different scales Global: km 2
3 Continental: km 3
4 Regional: 100 km 4
5 Local: m 5
6 Microscale: mm 6
7 Can we compute the evolution of the weather? as seen by satellite 7
8 Yes, we can 8
9 Here you go computed observed 9
10 V. Bjerknes In 1904, Bjerknes proposed that weather forecasting should be considered as an initial value problem of mathematical physics. Evolution of the atmosphere can be described by mathematical equations : Primitive equations
11 Richardson Direct solution of Navier-Stokes equations Complicated because the atmosphere is complicated Require a huge amount of computing power maybe will come a day where it will be possible to compute the evolution of the weather faster than the weather but this is a dream
12 Richardson s vision of computers
13 J. Charney and ENIAC 1950: First integration of a numerical weather prediction model on an electronic computer (ENIAC: electronic numerical integrator and computer) Simplified equations A 24h forecast required ca 24 hours I think we were all puzzled about the good quality of the forecast ENIAC Cray XT4 Faktor speed 500 Flops 10 TFlops 2 x memory 40 Bytes 2.1 TB
14 History: Further development 1956, Sweden: first real-time operational forecast 1966 in Germany/US: first weather models at the national weather services 1972 in the UK: first satisfactory precipitation forecast
15 Numerical Weather Prediction Model Ingredients Initial conditions (Current state of the atmosphere) and boundary conditions Physical laws valid for the atmosphere (in the form of differential equations) Computer program, calculating from the above the future state of the atmosphere 15
16 Observing the atmosphere 16
17 Data Assimilation Determination of the initial conditions ( analysis ) Observations Analysis Model state Forecast Time 17
18 Governing equations good news: physical laws that govern the atmosphere are known (Navier-Stokes) bad news: equations don t have an analytical solution, chaotic sytem (i.e. extremely sensitive to initial conditions) approach: numerical solution, discretization of space and time 18
19 Governing equations Leonhard Euler ( ) Known state at time t : (p,t,v,q ) at each point in space Allows calculation of the state at a later time mass conservation momentum conservation thermodynamics Differential equations time t time t + dt 19
20 Discretisation Gridded space grid 1 value for each parameter pressure temperature wind humidity... grid mesh Height above sea level 25 km 5km modellevels million of grid cells! 0 km W O 20
21 Parametrisation of sub-grid scale effects Model can not resolve processes smaller than a few times the grid size (Nyquist) turbulence clouds convection radiation 21
22 The COSMO model 22
23 Members of COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling) Germany Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) Switzerland Italy Ufficio Generale Spazio Aereo e Meteorologia (USAM) Greece Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) Poland Institute for Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) Romania National Meteorological Administration (NMA) Russia Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) 23
24 COSMO COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling Goal: Development, operations and improvement of the high-resolution non-hydrostatic model COSMO Utilisation for operations by the COSMO members as well as for research website: 24
25 COSMO model at COSMO-7 3 x daily 72 h forecasts 6.6 km grid size, 60 layers 393 x 338 x 60 = 7'970'040 points ECMWF Boundary conditions 16 km, 91 Layers 2 x daily COSMO-2 8 x daily 24 h forecasts 2.2 km Grid size, 60 layers 520 x 350 x 60 = points 25
26 Initial conditions Surface stations Soundings (weather ballon) Aircraft observations Weather radar 26
27 Comparison COSMO-7 and COSMO-2 COSMO-7 COSMO-2 horizontal resol. 6.6 km 2.2 km levels forecasts/day 3 x 72 h 8 x 33 h assimilation yes yes assimilated observations surface pressure soundings aircraft data windprofiler snow height surface pressure soundings aircraft data windprofiler Snow height precipitations derived from radars 27
28 Assimilation of radars in COSMO-2 Weather radars give precipitation information in high space and time resolution COSMO-2 radar Assimilation in COSMO-2 COSMO-2 precipitation forecast +6h bis +12h radar without radar ass. with radar ass. 28
29 Production Scheme Assimilation cycle time UTC Forecasts COSMO-2 COSMO h.. +72h.. +72h.. +33h.. +33h.. +33h.. +33h 29
30 Resolution: COSMO-7 versus COSMO km mesh 2.2 km mesh COSMO-2 COSMO-7 30
31 Resolution: COSMO-7 versus COSMO-2 COSMO-2 COSMO-7 Radar observation 31
32 Model resolution at DWD 2011 Grid spacing: 2.8 km Number of layers: 50 Number of gridpoints: 421 x Grid spacing: 2.2 km Number of layers: Number of gridpoints: 650 x
33 Ensemble forecasting 33
34 Ensemble prediction system e.g. precipitation Start prediction horizon weather system is chaotic rapid increase of little disturbances Ensemble technique: computation of different versions of same model 34
35 COSMO-LEPS Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System of COSMO Developed by ARPA-SIM, Bologna (I) Model: COSMO, 16 members 2 x 132-h forecasts Area: Southern and Central Europe Grid-spacing 7 km, 40 levels Running since Nov 2002 Calculation at ECMWF Boundary conditions from ECMWF EPS 35
36 COSMO-LEPS Strategy Determination of representative member for each of the 16 groups COSMO simulations weighted by means of the group size 36
37 COSMO-LEPS products Cumulative precipitation 37
38 38
39 How precise are model forecasts? 39
40 Example: 23 July 2009 (heavy hail event) 12-hour forecast of 24-hour precipitation total mm COSMO-2 radar 40
41 COSMO-7 precipitation forecasts Threshold 10mm/12h Seasonal verification with observations of whole doamin (Europe) 41
42 Does COSMO know hail storms? 42 Courtesy: M Betschart
43 Heavy hail storms of 23 July 2009 Vertical maximum reflectivity 12 UTC forecast, UTC radar COSMO-2 43
44 Heavy hail storms of 23 July 2009 COSMO-2 (two-moment scheme) radar 44
45 Heavy hail storms of 23 July 2009 Daily hail map (daily max of probabily of hail) assimilation until 12 UTC, afterwards free forecast COSMO-2 (one-moment scheme) radar 13 UTC 45
46 There was indeed hail 12 UTC forecast: hail detection algorithms: POH Verification with insurance loss reports, POD 90 % and FAR 11 % 46
47 The future 47
48 The future: Project COSMO-NExT Boundary conditions: VarEPS 20km 2x daily Boundary conditions: IFS 10km 4x daily COSMO-E ~2 km mesh size, 5 d forecast, 2 x daily COSMO-1 ~1 km mesh size, 24 h forecast, 8 x daily 48
49 Can we compute the Thank you evolution of the weather? 49
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