Design in the Future where are we heading? Prof Arto Kiviniemi School of Architecture

Transcription

1 Design in the Future where are we heading? Prof Arto Kiviniemi School of Architecture

2 Predicting the future...

3 Point of departure: BIM is nothing new, but changes in the construction industry are slow

4 First paper about BIM Chuck Eastman The use of computers instead of drawings in building design (March 1975) Some milestones on BIM timeline Building Product Modelling Early BIM research ISO STEP (Standard for the Exchange of Product Model Data) ArchiCAD 1 st BIM software for PCs (Mac) IAI International Alliance for Interoperability, now buildingsmart IFC st integrated BIM project HUT-600 in Finland Same old concept, new name... Building Information Modelling 1 st BIM requirements GSA (USA) & Senate Properties (Finland) IFC 2x3 Increasing industry interest in BIM Autodesk Revit Revit 1st IPD project in USA Announcements of UK Government s BIM requirements BIM becomes mandatory in public projects in the UK National BIM requirements in Finland

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6 Culture of change resistance

7 Crisis = danger & opportunity

8 UK Government is mandating BIM Government will require fully collaborative 3D BIM (with all project and asset information, documentation and data being electronic) as a minimum by adoption of BIM will put us at the vanguard of the new digital construction era and position the UK to become the world leaders in BIM.

9 Governmental BIM requirements in the UK Government Construction Strategy 2011 defined 2016 Targets

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11 Old business models can become obsolete In 1975 a Kodak scientist invented the digital camera. Kodak senior management were unimpressed because: the camera was huge, image quality was poor compared to film, getting a print was complex requiring a PC and PC skills, the film market was growing and so were Kodak sales and profits, if the technology could be improved, it would kill film the Golden Goose. The technology was buried until subsequent market emergence and Kodak s entry into digital in the late 1990 s Business results: In 1988 Kodak employed 145,300 people and made a profit of $1.17bn on $13.3bn revenue In 2009 it employed 19,900 people and made a quarterly loss of $111m In January 2012 Kodak filed for bankruptcy protection Film Digital

12 Active use of BIM in construction is growing rapidly Source: McGraw Hill SmartMarket Report "The Business Value of BIM for Construction in Major Global Markets 2014

13 BIM is not about buildings only! Case Crossrail, London

14 Source: Malcolm Taylor, Head of Technical Information, Crossrail, June 2013

15 Source: Malcolm Taylor, Head of Technical Information, Crossrail, June 2013

16 Source: Malcolm Taylor, Head of Technical Information, Crossrail, June 2013

17 Source: Malcolm Taylor, Head of Technical Information, Crossrail, June 2013

18 Connecting BIM and GIS

19 Buildings are surrounded by increasing amounts of data Urban plans Infrastrucure Infrastructure Infrastrucure models models models Companies and people Building codes Components and materials Architectural model Requirement model Project plan Building project MEP model Structural model Facility management models Indoor/usage models Sensor data Multiple interrelated datasets Produced in a truly distributed manner by different parties The building should be compatible with all the relevant datasets Courtesy Seppo Törmä 2014 LDAC Linked Data in Architecture and Construction

20 2D / 3D Analysis and Utility Networks Crossings btw. Heat & Power Info about pipes nearby Source: DHI-WASY GmbH, SIMKAS-3D project partner OGC BIM Copyright 2012 Open Geospatial Consortium Pipeline rupture simulation Courtesy Leif Granholm

21 Solar Energy Production Potential Analysis Source : LGV Hamburg, Fa. simuplan OGC OGC CityGML Courtesy Leif Granholm

22 CityGML : 5 levels of details LOD 0 Regional, landscape model 2.5D Digital terrain model, 3D landmarks LOD 1 City / Site model Prismatic buildings without roof structures LOD 2 City / Site model Simple buildings with detailed roof structures LOD 3 City / Site model Detailed architectural models, landmarks LOD 4 Interior Model Walkable architectural models BIM The same object may be represented in different LODs simultaneously OGC Copyright 2010, Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc. Courtesy Leif Granholm

23 Current use of BIM is just the tip of the iceberg there are significant unused areas and potentials

24 BIM research has become a global effort

25 Countries with the largest percentages of BIM publications in international research sources Source: Carneiro, Lins & Neto: Spread of BIM - A Comparative Analysis of Scientific Production in Brazil and Abroad 2012

26 BIM research: publications in different countries USA Brazil Sweden Australia Netherlands Finland UK Germany Norway Denmark Slovenia New Zealand France China Portugal South Korea Italy Argentina Israel Chile Switzerland Canada Egypt Ireland Turkey Belgium Spain Percentage of papers Slovenia Finland Sweden Norway Denmark New Zealand Netherlands Australia Ireland Portugal Israel Switzerland USA UK Chile Germany Belgium France Brazil South Korea Argentina Canada Italy Turkey Egypt Spain China Index per 10,000 inhabitans Data sources: World Population Index + Carneiro, Lins & Neto: Spread of BIM A Comparative Analysis of Scientific Production in Brazil and Abroad 2012

27 BIM is not about technology

28 BIM as a sociotechnical system with technical core Real importance Current main focus Source: WSP Group 2013

29 Gulnaz Aksenova, PhD student, École de Technologie Supérieure, Canada

30 Gulnaz Aksenova, PhD student, École de Technologie Supérieure, Canada

31 Need for new contractual models, e.g. IPD Sharing the pain and the gain Multiparty contract Polyparty contract Source: HansonBridgett: The IPD Framework

32 Need to analyse and re-think the data flows Phases Tasks Problems process skills technology } 80% human issues } 20% technology Actors Source: ECPIP-project: Aalto University SimLab and VTT

33 Main benefits require collaboration Average savings in change orders were % Annual value of US building construction is USD 954 billion (2014 estimate *) % = USD 150 billion Source: McGraw Hill: SmartMarket Report 2012

34 Optioneering Looking for an optimal solution for complex requirements

35 MDO Design Method CIFE/Stanford University Finding the best solution to minimise lifecycle costs and carbon footprint by generating hundreds or thousands of design alternatives instead of manually creating only few options. Courtesy Prof Martin Fischer CIFE, Stanford University 2013

36 Comparing Performance of Conventional Design Process with MDO Conventional MDO Set-up time 60 hrs 140 hrs Design cycle time 34 hrs 11 sec Alternatives evaluated 3 21,360 Total design time 162 hrs 210 hrs Life-cycle cost savings over base design (USD) Carbon footprint reduction (CO 2 e) - $27 M - 10 kt Courtesy Prof Martin Fischer CIFE, Stanford University 2013

37 Sustainability assessment City and infrastructure scale Courtesy Michael Thydell Sweco 2013

38 Society and landscape Multi-criteria analysis Multi-criteria analysis Weighting matrix Weight 0,04 x 0,28 x 0,14 x 0,11 x 0,27 x 0,12 x 0,02 x Topography Geotechnics Land use Proximity to school Nature value Cultural value Outdoor value Suitability layer Courtesy Michael Thydell Sweco 2013

39 Focus on the lifecycle and business values Client s core business Design = 0.1 FM services Design & construction process Change adaptation Construction = 1 Business = Operation in 20 years = 3-5 Arto Kiviniemi VERA programme 2000

40 What do we mean by the performance of the buildings? We should start simulating the business performance of buildings! We can simulate the energy performance of buildings Image: Beijing Airport baggage claim, SMART Solutions Buro Happold Salaries 92% Running costs 6% Capital cost 2% Total energy 1.3% Rick Best, Gerard de Valence (1999) Building in Value: Pre-Design Issues

41 Emerging technologies

42 User interfaces, augmented reality, robotics

43 3D printing of houses

44 Are we educating for the past or for the future? How can we get talented people interested in working in the AEC industry?

45 In the nature material is expensive and shape is free. Inspired by Prof Julian Vincent s Biomimetics

46 In the nature material is expensive and shape is free. In the traditional construction shape is expensive and material is cheap. Inspired by Prof Julian Vincent s Biomimetics

47 In the nature material is expensive and shape is free. In the traditional construction shape is expensive and material is cheap. Is it possible that in the future shape will be cheap and material expensive? Inspired by Prof Julian Vincent s Biomimetics

48 Design in the future? Multidisciplinary & Collaborative Performance-based & Life-cycle oriented Enabling automated production methods Semi-automated or automated optioneering?