Global Biodiesel Market Trends, Outlook and Opportunities. Will Thurmond
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1 Global Biodiesel Market Trends, Outlook and Opportunities Will Thurmond
2 Will Thurmond President, Emerging Markets Online markets.com Author, Biodiesel 2020: A Global Market Survey Columnist, Biofuels International HQ - Houston, TX
3 BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY 685 page study, February 2008 Country Studies US, Brazil, EU, China, India Feedstock Markets and Trends Soy, Rapeseed, Palm, Jatropha, Castor, Yellow Grease, Fats nd Generation Projects and Trends Algae, Renewable Diesel, BioCrude, Biomass to Liquids, Green Diesel 2 nd Outlook and Opportunities
4 GLOBAL BIODIESEL MARKET OUTLOOK Today Presentation: 1. Global Biodiesel Growth 2. Emerging Feedstock Trends 3. Outlook & Opportunities to 2020
5 1. GLOBAL BIODIESEL GROWTH Courtesy of bp.com
6 What Are They Key Drivers of Global Biodiesel Market Growth? Government Mandates Energy Independence Tax Incentives KEY DRIVERS OF GLOBAL BIODIESEL MARKET GROWTH Economic Security National Security Environmental Security Source: Biodiesel 2020: A Global Market Survey
7
8 GLOBAL BIODIESEL MARKET OVERVIEW Europe produces and consumes 80% + of biodiesel world-wide SOURCE - BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY
9 EUROPEAN BIODIESEL GROWTH
10 EU BIODIESEL MARKET GROWTH TRENDS EU Biofuels Targets: Target 1-2% by 2005 Target % by 2010 Proposals: 10% by 2020 (EU Revision) EU Biofuels Markets: More than 50% of cars run on diesel 70% of biodiesel from rapeseed increasing growth in imports soy from USA, Brazil, Argentina ; palm from Asia, eventually Jatropha from Asia, Africa Feedstock sustainability concerns #1 for 2008 SOURCE - BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY
11 EUROPE BIODIESEL MARKET GROWTH TRENDS
12 EU BIODIESEL MARKET GROWTH TRENDS
13 EUROPE FEEDSTOCK LEADER - RAPESEED Europe is the largest producer and consumer of rapeseed accounting for 75% of biodiesel consumption. Growing imports of soybean oil and SME biodiesel from Americas, and palm oil/pme from Asia are blending in.
14 USA BIODIESEL MARKET GROWTH
15 USA BIODIESEL MARKET GROWTH TRENDS USA Biofuels Targets Federal RFS 36 billion gallons by Billion Gallons from 2 nd Generation Fuels USA Biofuels Market Growth Production growth 25mgy mgy 2004 to 450 mgy 2007 Retail Growth 350 pumps 2005 to Biodiesel Export Growth to Europe Increase in multiple feedstock uses SOURCE - BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY
16 USA BIODIESEL MARKET OVERVIEW SOURCE - BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY
17 USA BIODIESEL MARKET OVERVIEW SOURCE - BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY
18 USA FEEDSTOCK LEADERS SOYBEAN SME + MULTI-FEEDSTOCK In the USA, soybean oil SME accounted for 64% of dedicated biodiesel production in 2005, but only 44% in Trend in USA is moving toward multi-feedstock plants. A move towards diversity of feedstock is the primary choice among new biodiesel producers, and expanding operations.
19 BRAZIL S S EMERGING BIODIESEL MARKETS
20 SOURCE - BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY BRAZIL - BIODIESEL MARKET GROWTH TRENDS Brazil Biodiesel Targets: National program starts with 2% blend in 2008 approximately 211 million gallons Next target 5% by 2013 (660 million gallons) Government, Petrobras, Farmers harmonize production in collaborative framework Socio-economic benefits for rural farmers Brazil Biodiesel Markets: Growth of 100+ biofuels plants by 2012 Biodiesel export growth plans for soy, jatropha
21 BRAZIL BIODIESEL MARKET OVERVIEW SOURCE - BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY
22 BRAZIL BIODIESEL MARKET OVERVIEW
23 CHINA S S EMERGING BIODIESEL MARKETS
24 CHINA S S BIODIESEL MARKET OVERVIEW China s s Biodiesel Targets to increase biofuels production to nearly 4 million MT by produce 12 million tons of biofuels, targeted to replace 15 percent of China s transportation energy needs Socio-economic benefits for rural farmers China s s Biodiesel Markets Traditional use of waste vegetable oil Plans for bigger plants using non-food sources such as jatropha, recycled waste and sewage feedstock China s s enormous Jatropha project at 13 million hectares or the size of England SOURCE - BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY
25 China Fast Growth in Diesel Market In Last 25 Years SOURCE - BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY China Planning Committee Report
26 China Fast Growth in Biodiesel Market SOURCE - BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY - estimates from GTZ China report
27 INDIA S S EMERGING BIODIESEL MARKETS
28 SOURCE - BIODIESEL 2020: A GLOBAL MARKET SURVEY INDIA S S BIODIESEL MARKET OVERVIEW India s s Biodiesel Targets: National Biodiesel Program started 2006 Two Phases jatropha plantation program Target 20% of diesel fuel by 2012 Growth for rural, city and regional areas Socio-economic plans for growth in marginal areas to benefit rural farmers India s s Biodiesel Markets: Key focus: Jatropha plantation, production Biodiesel Export Interest in Jatropha
29 INDIA S S BIODIESEL MARKET OVERVIEW
30 2. EMERGING FEEDSTOCK TRENDS
31 Source: Feedstock Price Trends, by William Thurmond, Biodiesel International, May/June 2007 issue FEEDSTOCK TRENDS RAPESEED OIL
32 USA BIODIESEL FEEDSTOCK MARKET TRENDS
33 FEEDSTOCK TRENDS National Feedstock Trends from Soybeans/Rapeseed to Multi-Feedstock USA 2005 majority of existing biodiesel plants 64% use soybean SME exclusively USA 2006 only 42% of existing biodiesel plants use soybean SME exclusively Global Feedstock Trends Price Trends Driving Growth in Lower Cost Feedstocks : EU, USA Higher feedstock prices for soy, rapeseed, and palm oil Future - Global Demand for alternative feedstocks from Waste Grease, Jatropha, Algae
34 Lower Cost Feedstocks for Biodiesel? Soybean Oil Palm Oil Tallow Yellow Grease Source: SEC, Edgar Filings, Nova Source Biofuels, Jacobsen Commentary and Market News Bulletin
35 Lower Cost Feedstocks for Biodiesel?
36 Lower Cost Feedstocks - Renewable Diesel Renewable Diesel: Grease is the word
37 Renewable Diesel Technologies Waste and Grease to Diesel and Bio-Oil Renewable Diesel Technologies Pyrolysis Gas To Liquids Fischer-Tropsch
38 From Trash to Cash - Waste Feedstock Processing for Renewable Fuels Many Options One is Thermal Depolymerization Source: Discover Magazine, April 2006, Anything Into Oil
39 Renewable Diesel Super Sized Projects Using Lower Cost Feedstocks
40 GLOBAL BIODIESEL FEEDSTOCK TRADE TRENDS: Growth of The Emerging Markets only 20 oil producers in the world supplying the demands of 200 nations 2010 over 100 nations will produce biofuels and supply to more than 200 nations
41 FORECAST: GROWTH IN GLOBAL BIODIESEL TRADE Export-Import of Canola, Soy, Palm, Jatropha, Sunflower, Castor Oils
42 FUTURE FEEDSTOCKS FOR BIODIESEL
43 JATROPHA FEEDSTOCK FOR BIODIESEL High-Yield, Non-Food Oil, Non-Ag and Non-Rainforest areas, Low Water Use
44
45 JATROPHA FEEDSTOCK FOR BIODIESEL High-Yield, Non-Food Oil, Non-Ag and Non-Rainforest areas, Low Water Use
46 JATROPHA FEEDSTOCK FOR BIODIESEL High-Yield, Non-Food Oil, Non-Ag and Non-Rainforest areas, Low Water Use Source: Xenerga estimates,, high-yield Jatropha seeds
47 ALGAE - BASED BIODIESEL Offers The Promise of High-Yield, Commercial-Grade, Non- Food Based Fuel
48 Algae Projects Reported Under Development High-Yield, Non-Food Oil, Non-Ag and Non-Rainforest areas, Low Water Use Solix Green Star Products, Inc. Algae BioFuels Icon Energy Inventure Aquaflow Bionic Corporation Valcent / Vertigro Joint Venture Enhanced Biofuels & Technologies Kwikpower International Bio Fuel Systems Solazyme PetroAlgae Seambiotic LiveFuels Inc GreenFuel Technologies Corporation Infinifuel Biodiesel Algoil OriginOil Alga Technologies SQC
49 A Look at The Future - Algae Farms High-Yield, Non-Food Oil, Non-Ag and Non-Rainforest areas, Low Water Use Source: Solix Biofuels
50 3. BIODIESEL OUTLOOK AND OPPORTUNITIES
51 GLOBAL BIODIESEL OUTLOOK AND OPPORTUNITIES Short-Term Outlook, Opportunities to 2010 Growth in Multiple Feedstocks Export Growth From Alternative Feedstocks Big Plants Open Near Ports, Refineries Renewable Diesel Growth - Recycled Waste
52 GLOBAL BIODIESEL OUTLOOK AND OPPORTUNITIES Medium Term Outlook, Opportunities to 2015 Emergence of Commercial Scale Jatropha Export Growth from Latin America, Africa, Asia Algae Commercial Scale Production Increases Growth in Renewable Diesel Projects for Commercial and Community/Muni Projects
53 GLOBAL BIODIESEL OUTLOOK AND OPPORTUNITIES Long-Term Outlook, Opportunities to 2020 Algae Becomes Mainstream Commodity Global Supply Balance Shifts North to South Global Demand Balance Increase From Asia Community Projects Increase Significantly
54 For more information
55 Contact: Will Thurmond Author, Biodiesel 2020: A Global Market Survey Columnist, Biofuels International magazine President, Emerging Markets Online willthurmond@gmail.com Web: markets.com
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