Electromobility: Comparing Public Policies in Europe, the United States and China. John D. Graham, Ph.D.

Transcription

1 Electromobility: Comparing Public Policies in Europe, the United States and China John D. Graham, Ph.D.

2 Electric Vehicles (EV) Are Not A New Idea 2

3 Types of EVs Plug-in (Battery-Only) Electric Vehicle (BEV) relies on battery power only Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEV) both battery and liquid-fuel power 3

4 0,50% Comparison of BEV and PHEV Sales (USA) as Percentage of Total New Vehicles Sold (Dec Aug. 2013) 0,45% 0,40% 0,35% 0,30% 0,25% 0,20% PHEV BEV 0,15% 0,10% 0,05% 0,00% Dez 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mrz 11 Apr 11 Mai 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Okt 11 Nov 11 Dez 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mrz 12 Apr 12 Mai 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Okt 12 Nov 12 Dez 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mrz 13 Apr 13 Mai 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Source: Data from electricdrive.org and hybridcars.com 4

5 0,80% EV Percentage of New Vehicles Sales (PEV & PHEV) 0,70% 0,60% 0,50% 0,40% 0,30% Germany U.S. 0,20% 0,10% 0,00% Dez 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mrz 11 Apr 11 Mai 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Okt 11 Nov 11 Dez 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mrz 12 Apr 12 Mai 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Okt 12 Nov 12 Dez 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mrz 13 Apr 13 Mai 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Source: KBA (Federal Motor Transport Authority), electricdrive.org, and hybridcars.com 5

6 The Drivers of Renewed Interest 6

7 Economic Development 7 Photo source: whitehouse.gov

8 Products Powered by Battery 8

9 Automotive-Grade Lithium Ion Batteries Suppliers HQ Partners NEC Corp Japan Nissan-Renault Panasonic/Sanyo Japan Toyota GS Yuasa Japan Mitsubishi Samsung South Korea Fiat BMW LG Chem South Korea General Motors Ford Motor 9

10 Energy Security STRAIT OF HORMUZ 40% of daily oil shipments pass through this unstable region. 10

11 Climate Change Image from ClimateProgress.org 11

12 Lifecycle GHG Footprints Vehicle Types, USA* Vehicle Type Metric Tons of CO 2 -equiv Gasoline car (24 MPG) 88 Hybrid car (50 MPG) 48 PHEV 40 mile electric range (USA) 39 PEV 100 mile electric range (USA) 37 PEV California electricity (lowcarbon) 18 *Assume 150,000 miles of travel, lifecycle GHG footprint, Schewel & Kammen,

13 Leading BEV Nissan LEAF (called Renault Zoe in EU) 75 mile all-electric range 115 MPGe 13

14 Recent BEV Offerings Model Price EPA mileage rating (highway/city MPG) All-electric range (miles) Top speed (mph) Seating capacity Nissan Leaf $28, / Ford Focus Electric $35,200 99/ Tesla Model S $69,900 97/ (+ 2) Mitsubishi i car $29,125 99/

15 Leading PHEV GM Chevrolet Volt 38 mile all-electric range 394+ mile total range 62 miles-per-gallon 15

16 Recent PHEV Offerings Total range: 300+ miles Model Price EPA mileage rating (highway/city mpg) All-electric range (miles) Top speed (mph) Seating capacity Chevrolet Volt $34,185 90/ Toyota Plug-in Prius $32,

17 The Grid Connection: Recharging Time Charger Time for Full-Charge Fixed Cost Comment 110-volts hours 0 Standard in USA 240-volts 3-8 hours $2,200 Standard in Europe 480 volts* 30 minutes $40,000 80% charge *Regular use may shorten life of battery. 17

18 Comparing EV Policies USA EU China California France Germany 18

19 Average Gasoline Price, Major World Cities*, USD *June 30,

20 United States 2008 Obama Campaign Pledge: 1 million plug-in vehicles by

21 U.S. Subsidies/Loans for EV Supply Chain $2.5 billion in stimulus (2009) 9 grants for battery makers 11 grants for makers of battery components 10 grants for makers of electric drive systems 8 community projects: put 13,000 plug-in vehicles on road with 20,000 charging stations by 2013 $9.1 billion in federal loan guarantees for green autos ( ). 21

22 * on Smyrna DOE loaned Nissan $1.6 billion for new plant in U.S. to make 100,000 Leafs. 22

23 Consumer Tax Credits Up to $7,500 for purchase of BEV or PHEV (2014) Up to $2,000 for recharging stations (expired 2011) New Obama Proposal Raise purchase credit to $10,000 Require dealers to provide incentive at point of sale. Note: No highway fuel tax on electricity for vehicles. 23

24 U.S. Federal Regulatory Push New Carbon and Mileage Requirements on Automakers (50 miles-per-gallon by 2025) BEV and PHEVs not penalized for carbon emissions at electric powerplant Manufacturers may count each plug-in vehicle as two vehicles in compliance averaging. 24

25 California 25

26 California EV Rebates BEV: $900 - $2,500 PHEV: $1,500 26

27 California s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV)* Program Covers major automakers selling in California (>10,000 vehicles/yr) Mandatory ZEV sales: 2018: 4 % of fleet 2025: 15 % of fleet Small-volume EV makers can sell their EV volume as credits to major automakers *BEV, PHEV, or fuel-cell vehicle. 27

28 Access to HOV Lanes on Congested California Freeways 28

29 European Union 29

30 EU Policies Technology-neutral design of carbon emissions standards for new vehicles Only small compliance incentives for plug-in vehicles No supply-chain grants or loans No EU-wide consumer incentives Electromobility demonstration project ( Green emotion ) to coordinate stakeholders in selected cities. 30

31 France 31

32 French Pro-EV Policies Have invested $5.83 billion on R & D for electrics since ,000 euro super bonus to purchasers of EV 3 billion euros in subsidies to Renault and Citroén, including 170 million euros for electrics plant at Flins Subsidies for national recharging infrastructure; new EV sharing scheme in Paris Government arranged EV purchases by agency and corporate fleets (2012) Renault: 15,600 EV sales Citroén: 3,900 EV sales 32

33 Key to France s lowcarbon grid: nuclear power plants. 33

34 Germany Large R & D effort but no production subsidies for EVs. Only small consumer incentives to purchase EVs (vehicle sales tax exemption). Small-scale community demonstrations of electromobility. VW, Daimler, BMW are hedging: exploring dieselhybrids and fuel cells as well as electrics. 34

35 Germany, Electromobility Sites Saxony 35

36 Fuel Cell Demonstration Projects in Germany 36

37 China 37

38 China: Economic Development Focus China s BYD F3DM, the world s first commercial PHEV Image from BYD 38

39 China: began with EV demonstrations in five cities: Hefei, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Changchun, and Shenzhen 39

40 Chinese Central Government Sales incentives: $9,450 for a BEV and $7,500 for a PHEV, but only in designated cities. Designated cities expanded from initial 5 to 20. Chinese automakers must offer BEVs or PHEVs, or risk losing approvals for new assembly plants for gasoline vehicles. Special access to inner-city, subsidized recharging. 40

41 Achilles Heel of the EV: The Voice of the Consumer 41

42 Survey of U.S. Consumers Web based instrument distributed by Knowledge Networks to 2,302 respondents Random sample of adult drivers living in 21 largest U.S. cities Between 100 and 120 respondents from each city 42

43 Consumer Interest in EVs is Low % % 80% 60% 40% 20% Number of respondents Cumulative percent Degree of Consumer Interest 0% 43

44 City Average Intent to Purchase Rating Observations San Jose/San Francisco, CA Chicago, IL Boston, MA Seattle, WA Los Angeles, CA Austin, TX San Diego, CA El Paso, TX Houston, TX Phoenix, AZ Charlotte, NC Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Baltimore, MD Jacksonville, FL Memphis, TN Nashville, TN Detroit, MI Indianapolis, IN San Antonio, TX Dallas/Fort Worth, TX Average across all cities

45 Perceived Disadvantages of EVs 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Range Driving range Price Vehicle price Charge time Recharge time 10% 0% Major disadvantage Somewhat a disadvantage Small disadvantage Not a disadvantage 45

46 Perceived Advantages of EVs 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Environmental image Technological innovation Fuel economy 0% Major advantage Somewhat an advantage Small advantage Not an advantage 46

47 Misperceptions are Widespread 47

48 Respondents largely unfamiliar with BEVs Only 30% able to identify a BEV; 45% incorrect on cost premium of BEV over similar gasoline vehicle; 70% incorrect on fuel savings; 90% incorrect on likely maintenance costs; 65% incorrect on BEVs maximum range 48

49 President Obama's 1 Million EV Goal Original DOE Estimate Actual EV Sales Jan 11 MrzMai Jul Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 MrzMai Jul Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 MrzMai Jul Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 MrzMai Jul Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 MrzMai Jul SepNov Source: hybridcars.com and www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/1_million_ele ctric_vehicles_rpt.pdf 49

50 Cumulative PEV and Hybrid Monthly Vehicle Sales Since Market Introduction EV Hybrid (conv.) Source: Data from electricdrive.org, hybridcars.com, and 50

51 Conclusion Future of EVs is uncertain ( valley of death ) EU is surprisingly neutral. France and California are leading the pro-ev campaign. Germany is skeptical but hedging. U.S. is pro-ev but politics are partisan. China seeking to lead global EV industry. 51

52 Thank you! 52