Global food supply: the world s need for protein

Transcription

1 Global food supply: the world s need for protein

2 Proteins as chemistry Proteins consist of one or more polypeptides. A polypeptide is a chain of amino acids. The polypeptide chains fold into their final three-dimensional structure to constitute a functional protein. 2

3 Proteins as biochemistry Type Function Examples Enzymes Catalyse biochemical reactions Pepsin alcohol dehydrogenase Transport & storage Signallers & receptors Structural Carry molecules though barriers and throughout the body Hormones Receptor proteins Give shape and structure Give movement Haemoglobin myoglobin Insulin Collagen myosin Antibodies Defence against diseases IgG, IgA Nutritional Feeding of young Casein 3

4 Proteins as food One of the major food groups Main source of dietary nitrogen Needed for Protein synthesis in the body tissue repair, growth, replacement Energy production 4

5 Protein supply: the problem World demand for animal-derived protein is expected to double by 2050 (FAO) Driven by: > Increasing population (9 billion by 2050) > Emerging economies > Increasing urbanisation > Recognition of protein s role in a healthy diet > Increased need for protein in the elderly 5

6 Bennett s Law there is an inverse relationship between the percentage of total calories derived from cereals and other staple foods and per capita income Animal Protein (g/day) $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 GDP (PPP) 2007 ($000) Thousands The ratio of starchy foods in the diet falls as income rises Poor eat more starchy foods Grains Root crops Wealthy eat more meat, fruit, vegetables Bennett MK (1941) Wheat in national diets. Wheat Studies (Food Research Institute, Stanford University). 18: 37-76

7 Predictions are in line with past growth -but is that growth sustainable? x Tonnes/year (Million) x X, X FAO Targets Historical data from FAOStat. Year 7

8 FAOStat food balance sheets > Production + imports + change in stocks = the supply available. > Adjust for exports, fed to livestock + used for seed, losses during storage and transportation = food supplies available for human consumption. > The per capita supply of each such food item is adjusted by the population. 8

9 Protein supply (2007 figures) > <31 9

10 Protein supply (2009 figures) 8.E+09 6.E+09 4.E+09 2.E+09 Population 2.50E E E E+09 Inadequate protein intake India Pakistan Indonesia 0.E China, Japan Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Chile Adequate protein intake 5.00E+08 Africa At risk NZ Aust USA 0.00E G protein per capita per day (National average) 10

11 Not all proteins are created equal nutritionally Composition: c c i n Differences in bioavailability of amino acids from different proteins 11

12 Global protein supply 3.4% 2.8% 5.1% 3.4% 4.9% 5.7% 6.4% 10.1% 17.8% 40.4% Cereals Meat Milk - Excluding Butter Fish, Seafood Vegetables Pulses Eggs Oilcrops Starchy Roots Other 12

13 1.1 Protein digestibility

14 Recommended daily intake (mg/kg body weight) g/day (70 kg adult) Protein Histidine Isoleucine Leucine Lysine Methionine + Cystine Phenylalanine + Tyrosine Threonine Tryptophan Valine

15 Bioavailable lysine content of foods Animal Protein Plant Protein Lysine g/100g corrected for bioavailability 15

16 Amino acid availability can be even less than indicated from digestibility Lysine Cereal Product Digestible Available Difference (%) Shredded Wheat Puffed Rice Rolled Oats Wheat Bran Corn Digestible reactive (available) lysine versus digestible total lysine (gkg -1 ) in breakfast cereals* *Rat true ileal digestibility assay. J. Agric. Fd. Chem

17 Our approach > Use supply data from FAO food balance sheets (per capita supply of protein per day by food type) > Calculate supply of each EAA for each food source > Correct for digestibility of protein from the food source > Add them up for each country > Compare with recommended daily intake (RDI) values (assuming 70 kg body weight) > Calculate future needs based on population predictions 17

18 Lysine-deficient countries Country Lysine (% RDI) % of Animal Protein in Diet Main protein source(s) % Main Protein Source Eritrea Other Cereals* 48 Liberia Rice 43 Mozambique Maize Wheat Guinea-Bissau Rice 39 Zambia Maize 57 Haiti Rice Wheat Togo Maize 30 Ethiopia Other Cereals 34 Tajikistan Wheat 61 Bangladesh Rice 61 Zimbabwe Maize 46 Yemen Wheat * Other cereals include sorghum, barley, oats, rye

19 High cereal diet =low lysine 79% 84% 99% Pulses & vegetables Cereals 108% 99% 98% Others Animal Dairy 89% 99% 89% 19

20 PROTEOS PROTEOS is a joint programme of research between the Riddet Institute / Massey University and the Wageningen University PROTEOS Vision Statement: The growing human population and prosperity will result in an increasing demand for food protein (FAO 2006). Current animal production systems will not meet this demand in a sustainable way. PROTEOS will enable solutions by substituting and extending future animal-based protein sources allowing a shift in the protein supply chain in an economical and sustainable manner.

21 PROTEOS propositions Three simultaneous changes will need to be made to meet future animal-derived protein demand, namely: > shifting protein sources up the supply chain; > use of plant-based substitutes or extenders for animalderived protein foods; and > use of novel sources for both animal and human nutrition. 21

22 Shifting protein sources up the value chain Food waste Animal feed Human food > Bring back feeding food waste to animals in developed countries > Offal and low grade meat materials should be made fit for human consumption > Use grains to feed people, not animals 22

23 About food waste: The inability to use food waste to feed production animals is creating a waste disposal problem as well as failing to use an important food resource Country Estimated food wastage What was measured USA 40% Energy balance USA 27% Solid and liquid waste UK 33% Analysis of solid waste Netherlands 30-50% Interviews, whole of supply chain Sweden 20% Food service institutions. Brazil 11-19% Restaurant waste disposal 23

24 Plant-based substitutes and extenders > Develop ways to extend meat, dairy and fish products Essential amino acid balancers Texture improvers > Develop substitutes that are acceptable Develop fibrous textures for meat substitutes 24

25 Novel protein sources > Insect protein Insects can eat wood etc. as well as waste Food for aquaculture (soldier fly larvae for fish) > Waste streams from food processing Prime example is whey protein Potato protein following By-products from vegetable oils industry > Fungal protein > By- and co-products, e.g. of biofuels > Synthetic meat Distillers grains Jatropha 25

26 Planetary boundaries 26

27 What is the real cost of animal protein? Should we give up animal-based protein to save the planet? 27

28 Opportunity costs inputs for food production Food Land Energy Water 28

29 Resource use: U.S. dairying 2007 vs use as % of 1944 use to produce the same amount of milk No of animals 21% Feedstuffs 23% Water 35% Manure 24% Methane 43% N2O 56% Overall carbon footprint 37% Capper, J.L., Cady, R.A., Bauman, D.E. (2009) J. Animal Science 87:

30 Competition for land In non-ruminant production animals and grain-fed beef and dairy this means competition for food Kg grain/kg protein Grain-fed beef 10 Pork 5 Poultry 3 Eggs 4 Milk 5 30

31 Environmental impact The wonderful ruminant Most of New Zealand s animal production is based on ruminants (cattle and sheep), fed on pasture and conserved pasture. > Ruminants can digest material that cannot be used for feeding humans or monogastrics > Ruminants can harvest their own food. Resources used in a default livestock system are minimal Animal product consumption Elferink, E.V., Nonhebel, S., Moll, H.C. (2008) J. Cleaner Production 16: Resource use increases when livestock are fed on food that could be used for humans 31

32 Resource use: U.S. dairying 2007 vs use as % of 1944 use to produce the same amount of milk No of animals 21% Feedstuffs 23% Water 35% Manure 24% Methane 43% N2O 56% Overall carbon footprint 37% Capper, J.L., Cady, R.A., Bauman, D.E. (2009) J. Animal Science 87:

33 Protein production in New Zealand Most of New Zealand s animal production is based on ruminants, fed on pasture and conserved pasture. > Hill country farming is not in competition Product Kg protein /ha/y Beef (hill country) 85 Milk 540 Wholemeal flour 882 Plain flour 463 NZ figures based on: Canterbury dairy farming production (LIC); yields for wheat & beef from Statistics New Zealand; protein content of beef & flour from New Zealand Food Composition Tables; milling yield taken as 70% for white flour; dressing % for beef taken as 60% carcase wt. 33

34 Energy: About carbon footprints Buffaloes in the USA Carbon footprint (billion kg CO2 equiv.) American Bison Dairy industry Capper, J.L. (2011) Animal Frontiers 1:

35 Energy: About carbon footprints and dairy farms in New Zealand 18 Carbon footprint (kg CO2 equiv. / kg milksolids) kg milksolids/ha/y Ledgard S, Judge A, Smeaton D & Boyes M. (2010) Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Rotorua Dairy Farms. Report to MAF. AgResearch, Hamilton. 35

36 Competition for water > 1 Kg of grain requires about 1,000 L water > 1 Kg beef requires 43,000 L water Water is a scarce resource. Are we making the best use of it? 36

37 Livestock virtual water exports and imports (Gm 3 ) ( all countries) Australia Japan 112 New Zealand 71 2 Italy 93 USA 62 3 Hong Kong 46 Canada 48 4 Russian Fed 39 Argentina 33 5 Korea Rep. 35 Ireland 31 6 Taiwan 29 Denmark 28 7 Untd Kingdom 20 Netherlands 24 8 Indonesia 15 Uruguay 23 9 Mexico 14 France Philippines 14 37

38 Conclusions: the global problem > The world needs more protein to feed a growing and underfed population. > There are many partial solutions. 38

39 Thanks to the Proteos Team for their input Riddet Institute: > Paul Moughan > Shane Rutherfurd > Srikanta Chatterjee > Arnab Sarkar Wageningen University: > Tiny van Boekel > Wouter Hendriks > Harry Gruppen > Johan Vereijken > Miranda Meuwissen > Arnout Fischer 39

40 Thank you.