The UK Foodservice Market The complexity, the trends, and the opportuni<es

Transcription

1 The UK Foodservice Market The complexity, the trends, and the opportuni<es

2 The size and complexity of the UK Foodservice Market Retail, Travel & Leisure: 19.9bn 101,164 Retail Coffee Shops Travel Roadside & MSA Foodservice market bn 331,845 (value outlets) Leisure Sports Clubs Hotels Hotels, Pubs & Restaurants: 63.0bn 167,480 Full Service Pubs & Bars Branded and Managed Restaurants Service- Led Fast Food Cost Sector: 4.2bn 63,200 Business & Ind stry Contracted Public Sector Defence +2.3% 2016 Sandwich Bars Petrol Forecourts Event Catering Budget Tenanted and Leased Fine Dining Branded Tradi<onal In- House Jus<ce Bakery Stores Railway Sta<ons Stadia Guest Houses Independent Independent Branded Emerging Healthcare Dep t Stores/ Supermarket Cafés Airports Visitor Aarac<ons Holiday Parks Social Clubs Branded Independent inc. Street Food Local Authori<es Supermarket Grab & Go Ports Entertainment Venues Conference Centres Nightclubs Oil Rigs Convenience Store Grab & Go Educa<on 2

3 Simplicity of Retail vs. Complexity of Foodservice UK Grocery Market UK Foodservice Market from to from to 90% of the total market sold by 7 large retailers >300k outlets with c.200k companies 3

4 Brands and independents share the market 4

5 Ea<ng out par<cipa<on: Q Q % 89.4% 90.4% 88.7% 91.0% 91.7% 90.9% 91.9% 92.6% 92.0% 93.8% 92.9% 92.3% 93.2% 93.1% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

6 Frequency by day- part: Q Q Average number of visits per head per month Snacking Lunch Dinner Breakfast Q Q Q Q Q

7 Average spend by day- part: Q Q Average spend per head per visit Dinner Lunch Breakfast Snacking Q Q Q Q Q

8 The Ageing Consumer 8 10

9 The Ageing Demographic - Ea<ng out frequencies Total UK adult average 24.1 Total per month Snack Dinner Lunch Breakfast

10 Most important long- term consumer trends Changing behaviour of millennials Changing behaviour of millennials Experience- driven behaviour Ea\ng on- the- move More /more mobile demanding lifestyle consumers Healthier ea\ng Use of digital technology Convenience - led Growing 'food culture' Ageing popula\on Experience- driven behaviour All- day dining 43% 23% 21% 19% 19% 17% 17% 16% 16% 14% 10 16

11 The six mega trends in the marketplace MEGA TRENDS Healthier ea\ng Indulgence Informality Premiumisa\on Provenance Value scru\ny 11 20

12 Cuisine trend hotspots in 2016 BBQ, NORTH AMERICAN CARIBBEAN MEXICAN BRAZILIAN, SOUTH AMERICAN BRITISH FRENCH ITALIAN SPANISH GREEK LEBANESE NORTH AFRICAN NORDIC PERSIAN KOREAN CONTEMP. TRADITIONAL INDIAN CHINESE TAIWANESE TRADITIONAL INDIAN SRI LANKAN VIETNAMESE, THAI, SE ASIAN JAPANESE = significant growth cuisine = growth cuisine = poten\ally under pressure 12 23

13 A new era of Premiumised Informality, driven by Food Pleasure Seekers

14 A highly compe<<ve landscape High Price Narrow Focus Broad focus Low Price 14

15 With compe<<on growing all round especially at the value end of the spectrum 15

16 Gemng squeezed in the middle THERE CAN BE NO CASUAL APPROACH TO CASUAL DINING 16

17 Contemporary chains those that have developed in the past 10 years

18 Top 10 brands - Percentage sales growth E 67% 67% 64% 63% 55% 48% 45% 42% 41% 38% [VALUE] CAU Five Guys Franco Manca Turtle Bay Leon Cosy Club Coast To Coast Koh Thai Tapas Barburrito MEATliquor Absolute Growth Percentage Growth 18

19 Disruptors and Influencers

20 Challenges to brands from quality independents

21 Contemporary consumers seeking faster fashion food will fuel restaurant growth MCA Oxford Farming Conference, the UK Foodservice Market, Jan

22 The Ea<ng Out Seesaw The Ea<ng Out seesaw is <pping towards WOW foods, and away from Worthy foods. 22

23 Tipping towards WOW 23

24 But is it <pping back..? 24

25 The future?

26 Forecast growth in the ea<ng out market 2016 to % 3.3% 3.3% 2.8% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 1.10% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% E 2017F 2018F 2019F Ea\ng Out market turnover growth Previous Ea\ng Out market turnover growth es\mate Ea\ng Out market outlet growth 26

27 What does it mean for Farmers? +2.8% 2019 A growth market one to get involved with Provenance is a mega trend that Healthier Ea\ng is a mega trend that can Farmers can deliver against be an opportunity for farmers Consumers are habitually ea\ng out of home but are seeking great value MCA Oxford Farming Conference, the UK Foodservice Market, Jan 2017 More adventurous tastes and demand for experiences give scope for different products

28 Thank you! MCA- Insight.com Insight.com