FPMU. BaNGLADESH FOOD SITUATION REPORT

Transcription

1 BaNGLADESH FOOD SITUATION REPORT FPMU April-June, Volume-101 Overview Domestic Production Outlook Total foodgrain production in the FY was mmt (aus 2.33 aman 13.02, boro and wheat 1.30 mmt). For FY , DAE set the target for total foodgrain production at mmt in which contribution of aus, aman, boro and wheat would be 2.43 mmt, mmt, mmt and 1.35 mmt respectively. Meanwhile, BBS confirmed aus, aman and wheat production at 2.33 mmt, mmt and 1.35 mmt respectively. According to the latest monitoring report of DAE, area achieved for boro slightly exceeded the target, registering 4.85 million hectares. Accordingly, production of boro may exceed the target. Thus with marginal shortfall in the achievement of aus and aman production, achievement of target for wheat and expected marginal increase in boro production, total foodgrain production target of mmt for FY may be achieved. Foodgrain Import The target for foodgrain import in FY was 4.35 mmt. Actual import during the year was about 5.27 mmt of which 1.49 mmt was rice and 3.78 mmt wheat. There was no commercial and aided public import of rice during the year and private import constituted the entire part of rice import. Of the total wheat import of 3.78 mmt, about 0.33 mmt was imported by the public sector and 3.45 mmt by the private sector. Thus wheat import by private sector constituted the major part of total foodgrain import. Domestic Foodgrain Procurement The revised target for foodgrain procurement in FY was 1.75 mmt. Aactual procurement during the year was about 1.68 mmt, of which rice was 1.47 mmt and wheat 0.21 mmt. Thus the procurement target was almost realized. The current boro (in trems of rice) procurement target has been set at 1.10 mmt at the rate of Tk 22/kg for paddy, Tk 31/kg for white rice and Tk 32/ kg for parboiled rice. Boro procurement started from 1 st April and will continue up to 31 st August, As on 30 th June/15, 0.49 mmt of boro was procured. Public Foodgrain Distribution The revised budget for public foodgrain distribution in FY was 2.42 mmt. The actual distribution during the year was about 1.84 mmt of which rice was 1.22 mmt and wheat 0.62 mmt. Distribution through FFW was the highest, followed by OMS, EP, VGD, VGF and TR. Public Stock of Foodgrains The opening public stock of foodgrains on 1 st July/14 was 1.15 mmt and the ending stock of June/15 was about 1.29 mmt. The stock of foodgrains fluctuated and remained on an average at around 1.19 mmt during the April-June/15 period. Assuming normal rate of stock replenishment, this level of stock could be considered adequate for running PFDS operations over the coming months. Domestic Market Prices The wholesale rice and wheat prices declined during the last quarter from April to June of the FY The nominal prices of rice and wheat declined by 6.55% and 4.35% respectively during the same period. The corresponding real prices dropped by 5.52% and 3.30% respectively. International Prices and Production Outlook According to USDA forecast of June/15, global rice production for is projected at a record million tons (milled basis), down 0.4 million tons from last month s forecast but 5.6 million tons higher than a year earlier. Wheat production in is projected to reach million tons, up 0.4 million tons from previous month s forecast. The price of Thai 5% parboiled rice moderately declined over the past months. US Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat prices also had similar trend. 1

2 Domestic Foodgrain Availability Domestic Foodgrain Production Total foodgrain production in FY was mmt (aus 2.33 aman 13.02, boro and wheat 1.30 mmt). For FY , DAE fixed the target for total foodgrain production of mmt in which contribution of aus, aman, boro and wheat would be 2.43 mmt, mmt, mmt and 1.35 mmt respectively. Meanwhile, BBS already finalized aus, aman and wheat production at 2.33 mmt, mmt and 1.35 mmt respectively. According to the latest monitoring report of DAE, area achieved for boro slightly exceeded the target, registering 4.85 million hectares. Boro cultivation season has also experienced favorable weather conditions and it is expected that boro production will slightly exceed the target. Thus allowing for the marginal shortfall in the achievement of aus and aman production, achievement of target of wheat production and expected marginal ncrease in boro production, total foodgrain production target of mmt for FY may be achieved Figure 1: Annual foodgrain production (mmt) and crop-wise contribution Boro Aman Aus Wheat Boro Aman Aus Wheat 2013/14 (Actual) 2014/15 (Target/Actual) Foodgrain Import The target for foodgrain import in FY was 4.35 mmt. Actual import during the year was about 5.27 mmt of which 1.49 mmt was rice and 3.78 mmt wheat. There was no commercial public import and food aid of rice during the year and private import constituted the entire part of total rice import. However, public commercial wheat import constituted a substantial part of total wheat import during the year. Of the total wheat import of about 3.78 mmt, about 0.33 mmt was imported by the public sector and 3.45 mmt, by the private sector. As usual, wheat import by private sector constituted the major part of total foodgrain import. The Government, however, will gear up wheat import to continue distribution of atta through OMS in an effort to stabilize wheat/atta prices in the market. Table 1: Foodgrain imports (000 metric tons) Category of import Q1 Q2 Q3 (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) FY Q4 Arrival by Month (Actual) Apr May Jun Total Total Import Rice GoB Com Food Aid Private Total Rice Wheat GoB. Com Food Aid Private Total Wheat Foodgrain

3 Domestic Foodgrain Procurement The revised foodgrain procurement target in FY was set at 1.75 mmt of which 1.50 mmt would be rice and 0.25 mmt wheat. Actual procurement during the year was about 1.68 mmt, of which rice was 1.47 mmt and wheat 0.21 mmt. Thus the procurement target for FY was almost realized. The current boro (in trems of rice) procurement target has been set at 1.10 mmt at the rate of Tk 22/kg for paddy, Tk 31/kg for white rice and Tk 32/ kg for parboiled rice. Boro procurement started from 1 st April/15 and will continue up to 31 st August, As on 30 th June/15, 0.49 mmt of boro rice was procured. The current procurement price is likely to give adequate incentives for the farmers/millers and therefore boro procurement target is expected to be achieved. Public Foodgrain Distribution The revised budget for public foodgrain distribution in was 2.42 mmt. The actual distribution during the year was about 1.84 mmt of which rice was 1.22 mmt and wheat 0.62 mmt. Distribution through FFW was the highest, followed by OMS, EP, VGD, VGF and TR. For FY , the provisional budget for PFDS is 2.78 mmt of which rice is 1.68 mmt and wheat is 1.10 mmt. Table-2 Channel-wise distribution of foodgrains (000 mt) Offtake Categori es Monetized Channels of PFDS Channels of PFDS FY (Actual) FY (Actual) FY (Actual) Offtake Rice Wheat Total Rice Wheat Total Rice Wheat Total Rice Wheat Total Essential Priorities Other Priorities Large Employers Open Market Sales/FPC Sub-total Food For Works Test Relief Nonmonetized VGF VGD Channels of PFDS Gratuitous Relief Others Sub-total Total Public Distribution Public Stock of Foodgrains The opening public stock of foodgrains on 1 st July/14 was 1.15 mmt and the ending stock of June/15 was about 1.29 mmt. The stock of foodgrains fluctuated and remained on an average at around 1.19 mmt during the April-June/15 period. The closing stock of about 1.29 mmt in June/15 seems to be adequate to meet the requirements for PFDS operations in the coming months, assuming that stock replenishments will continue to be normal. Table 3: Commodity-wise closing public stock in FY and ( ) (Budgeted) (000 mt) Month July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 13-Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 2013/14 Rice Wheat Total /15 Rice Wheat Total

4 Taka/% Taka/% Taka / kg Taka / quintal Rice and Wheat Wholesale Prices The wholesale rice and wheat prices declined during the last quarter from April to June of the FY (Fig. 2). The nominal prices of rice and wheat declined by 6.55% and 4.35% respectively during the same period. The corresponding real prices dropped by 5.52% and 3.30%. The nominal rice and wheat prices fell by 3.10% and 7.08% respectively during the same period a year earlier. During FY , nominal rice and wheat prices declined by 17.56% and 12.08%, respectively. The real rice and wheat prices decreased sharply by 21.21% and 15.97%, respectively during the same period (Table 4). Table 4: Change of rice and wheat prices Nominal price Rice and Wheat flour Retail Prices The retail prices of rice and atta showed a downward trend during the last quarter of the current fiscal year (Fig. 3). The average prices of this quarter decreased by 9.73% for rice and 8.91% for atta compared to previous quarter. Thus the decline in rice price was sharper than that of atta price. The average national retail prices of both rice and atta were lowest during the last quarter. Market Price Review 1900 Jan- Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 14 Rice 2015 Wheat 2015 Rice 2014 Wheat 2014 Difference between Retail and Wholesale Prices of Rice and Wheat Flour Between July/14 and June/15, retail and wholesale prices of rice and atta in Dhaka city markets moved almost in the same directions, parallel to each other, with a percentage margin ranging from 5.5% to 26.8% for rice and 17.6% to 32.4% for atta (Figures 4 and 5). The margins of rice fluctuated with a sharp increase in April and narrowing in June, while for atta the margin widened appreciably during the period under review Fig.2 National wholesale price Real price Period Rice Wheat Rice Wheat Apr'15 to Jun' % -4.35% -5.52% -3.30% Apr'14 to Jun' % -7.08% -2.10% -6.12% Jul'14 to Jun' % % % % Jul'13 to Jun' % -4.02% 4.28% -8.96% Fig.3 National retail price: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rice 2015 Atta 2015 Rice 2014 Atta Fig.4 Margins, retail and wholesale prices of rice in Dhaka, Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Percentage margin Retail price Wholesale price Fig. 5 Margins, retail and wholesale prices of Atta in Dhaka, Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Percentage margin Wholesale price Retail price 4

5 Jul'13 Aug'13 Sep'13 Oct'13 Nov'13 Dec'13 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep14 Oct'14 Nov14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 USD/MT Taka per quintal Taka per quintal Monitoring and Outlook for Wholesale Prices of Foodgrains Domestic Rice Price Forecast Fig 6: Monitoring wholesale coarse price The rice prices during February-June/ period followed similar pattern from what was observed in the last four years. Prices of current year were much lower than those of earlier years and their absolute differences increased from 10% in February/15 to 18% in June/15. Estimates from the price monitoring model as shown in Figure 6 forecasts a band within which the price of Market Price Normal Past Price rice is expected to remain during July/15 to Benchmark price (low) September/15, if past trends are confirmed. Based on the estimates, it is noted that in September/15, there is a 70% chance that the coarse rice price will remain between Tk /kg and Tk /kg. Domestic Wheat Price Forecast 2700 During the February-June/15 period, wheat prices followed somewhat similar pattern 2500 observed over the last four years, except in June when they declined instead of rising in 2300 the normal year. The market prices remained much lower than normal prices in all the 2100 months during this period. The absolute 1900 differences between actual and normal prices rose from 13% in February/15 to 19% in 1700 June/15. The model estimates showed that wheat price is expected to remain between Tk /kg and Tk /kg in July/15 and between Tk /kg and Tk /kg in September/15 (Fig. 7). International Price and Production Global Rice Production and Price According to USDA forecast of June/15, global rice production for 2015/16 is projected at a record million tons (milled basis), down 0.4 million tons from last month s forecast, but 5.6 million tons larger than a year earlier. The bumper crop is primarily due to expanded area. At a record million hectares, global rice area in 2015/16 is up 1.5 million hectares from a year earlier. Bangladesh, India, and Thailand account for most of the expected increase in global rice area. East Asia and Southeast Asia are projected to harvest record crops in 2015/16, with Sub-Saharan Africa s production projected near-record. South Asia is expected to harvest a larger crop in 2015/16. South America s 2015/16 production is projected to decline slightly. Prices for all grades of Thai regular milled white rice are basically unchanged from a month earlier. Prices for Thai 5 percent broken were quoted at $390 per ton for the month ending June/15.The average of Letter of Source: Bangladesh Bank, USDA Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Benchmark price (middle) Fig 7: Monitoring of wholesale wheat price Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Market Price Benchmark price (low) Fig 8 International rice price LC Settled Normal Past Price Benchmark price (middle) Thai 5% paraboiled 5

6 Jul'13 Aug'13 Sep'13 Oct'13 Nov'13 Dec'13 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 USD/MT Credit (LC) settled price is generally used as the reference price for rice import in Bangladesh. The LC settled price fluctuated with a downward trend during Dec/14 and June/15, while price of Thai 5% had a persistent downward trend during the same period (Figure 8). Global Wheat Production and Price Global wheat production in is projected to 500 reach million tons, up 0.4 million from 450 previous month s forecast. This marginal increase is 400 the net result of 0.7 million ton increase in the 350 forecast of U.S. production and 0.3 million ton decrease in other countries. The decreased 300 production prospect in Canada and European Union is likely to be offset by increased prospect in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Both LC settled price and US Soft Red Winter (SRW) prices of wheat fluctuated during the period from July/14 to June/15, but the SRW price remained persistently lower than the LC settled price. After January/15, while SRW price decreased moderately, L.C. settled price had a sharp decline up to April and also had a sharp increase between April and May/15. In June/15, LC settled price declined, while SRW price showed upward movement. Fig 9 International wheat price LC Settled Wheat (soft red) Source: Bangladesh Bank, USDA Food Consumption and Nutrition Trends in stunting of children under age 5 Stunting is a condition of chronic undernutrition. Stunting or height for age reflects the long term effects of malnutrition in a population. Stunted growth reflects a process of failure to reach linear growth potential as a result of suboptimal health and/or nutritional conditions. Bangladesh has made considerable progress in the reduction of child stunting. Figure-10: Stunting rate of under 5 children, Recent data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2014 shows that the stunting rate of under-5 children of Bangladesh has decreased from 51 % in 2004 to 36 % in 2014 (Figure 10). The improvement recorded for stunting is in line with the MDG and national targets, but still remains high at a level of public health significance as per World Health Organization thresholds (less than 30 percent). Both nutrition sensitive and specific interventions are required to address the problem of stunting and thereby to reduce child under nutrition on a sustainable basis. 6