State of the Economy St. John's Metro

Transcription

1 State of the Economy St. John's Metro

2 Published by: Office of Strategy & Engagement City of St. John's Economic Updates (monthly), Economic Reviews and Outlooks (biannual) are also available in the publications section of the website or can be subscribed to by visiting the e-updates section. Although every effort has been made to ensure the completeness and accuracy of the information contained in this publication, the City of St. John s does not guarantee, warrant or make any representations, express or otherwise, that the information contained herein is complete and correct. All numbers are nominal unless otherwise stated. Publication date: April 2015

3 St. John's CMA¹ economic indicators e % Chg e Real GDP (2007$M) 14,497 14, % Retail trade ($M) 3,874 4, % Household income ($M) 9,615 10, % Consumer Price Index (2002=100) % 1 St. John s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is a geographic area defined by Statistics Canada that includes St. John s and several neighbouring communities. St. John s CMA may also be referred to as St. John s metro throughout this document. Please refer to the following website for a map of St. John s CMA Table shows change from previous year data is estimated. Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division. e: estimate

4 St. John's metro unemployment rate decreased to 5.9% in 2014, the lowest in at least 40 years e % Chg e Labour Force 115, , % Employment 108, , % Unemployment Rate 6.1% 5.9% -0.2 ppts Participation Rate 69.2% 69.3% 0.1 ppts Table shows change from previous year data is estimated. Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division. e: estimate

5 Economic growth and oil production Real GDP growth in the St. John s CMA is sensitive to changes in oil production. The majority of oil industry activity is resident in the area, therefore most of the province s oil-related Real GDP is allocated to the CMA. Real GDP Growth With and Without Oil & Gas St. John's CMA (%) 10 With Oil & Gas Exclude Oil & Gas Source: Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division.

6 Annual Production (million bbls) Oil production impacts local and provincial economies. The Hebron project is scheduled to begin oil production in Exploration continues with recent discoveries, including Bay du Nord Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Area Production Forecast Hebron South White Rose North Amethyst White Rose Terra Nova Hibernia Main Source: Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB)

7 Millions of dollars in ongoing developments Project $10 M St. John's International Airport Capital Plan $200 Team Gushue Highway Extension ( ) $57.1 Convention Centre Expansion, New Gower St.* $64 Waterford Valley High School, Topsail Road $39 Water Treatment Plant, 90 Densmores Ln.* $33.9 Paul Reynolds Community Centre, Wedgewood Park * $31 Scotia Centre Extension, 235 Water St. $26.8 Holiday Inn Express, World Parkway $14 Virginia Park Plaza Redevelopment $13.9 City of St. John s Street Rehabilitation Program (2015)* $13 KMK Capital Office Building, 18 Hebron Way $12 * Indicates a project of the City of St. John s Note: Table is not a complete list of all projects. Source: City of St. John s, Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division

8 Harvey s Power Centre, east side of Torbay Road Field Power Centre, west side of Torbay Road Glencrest Industrial Centre, Phase One Galway residential and retail Source: Altus Group For location and further information:

9 St. John s CMA housing starts decreased by 29.1% to 1230 units in In the City of St. John s, housing starts declined to 503 units. Housing Starts - St. John's and CMA CMA St. John's , Note: CMA housing starts include St. John's housing starts. Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)

10 Thousands $ The average MLS 1 housing price has more than doubled since 2005, and increased 1.7% in Average MLS Residential Price in St. John's MLS (Multiple Listing Service) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association. Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data.

11 Industrial market rental rates increased to $13.12 sq. ft. in 2014, an increase of 50.5% over The industrial vacancy rate increased as 250,000 sq. ft. of new inventory was added. First Quarter Gross Rental Rate and Vacancy Rate, Industrial St. John's CMA $14.00 $12.00 Gross Rental Rate Vacancy Rate 9.90% 12.00% 10.00% $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $ % 3.60% 5.19% 6.27% 7.27% 5.64% 5.90% 4.90% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% $ % $ % Source: Cushman & Wakefield Atlantic

12 psf/yr Office market rental rates have increased 78% since First Quarter Gross Rental Rate, Office St. John's CMA $40 $30 $24.57 $27.50 $29.11 $31.05 $33.10 $20 $18.63 $19.05 $18.58 $20.70 $10 $ Source: Cushman & Wakefield Atlantic

13 Office vacancy rates have declined since An additional 358,028 sq. ft. of office space is being developed in downtown St. John s. 14 1st Quarter Office Market Vacancy - St. John's CMA (%) Class A Overall 8 % * Class A buildings in St. John's are: Baine Johnson Building, Fort William Building, Cabot Place, and Scotia Centre. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Atlantic, Altus Group

14 $Millions The value of commercial building permits in St. John s was $175 million in 2014 while residential and repair permits were $146.7 million. 300 Value of Construction from Commercial and Residential Building Permits City of St. John's, $Millions Com Res Com = Commercial Permits; Res = Residential and Repair Permits Source: City of St. John's

15 St. John s CMA labour force participation rate increased slightly in 2014, and remained higher than the national rate. Labour Force Participation Rates (%) St. John's CMA vs Canada St. John's CMA Canada Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division.

16 The annual unemployment rate in the St. John's CMA reached a historic low of 5.9% in Annual Unemployment Rate (%) St. John's CMA Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division.

17 Between the 2001 and 2011 census years, the population of the communities surrounding the capital city grew by 23.1% while the population of the City of St. John s increased 7.0%. 196,966 (2011) Source: Census 2011, Statistics Canada

18 St. John s CMA - A Demographic Snapshot: A glimpse into the future The percentage of the population of Newfoundland and Labrador living in St. John s CMA continues to grow Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division, Population Projections, medium scenario

19 St. John s CMA - A Demographic Snapshot: A glimpse into the future It is forecasted that the number of households will increase at a greater rate than the population. Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division, Population Projections, medium scenario

20 St. John s CMA - A Demographic Snapshot: A glimpse into the future An Aging Population: The portion of the population aged 65 and over grows while the age group declines. Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division, Population Projections, medium scenario

21 St. John s CMA - A Demographic Snapshot: A glimpse into the future Population growth forecasted in the City of St. John s and St. John s CMA Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division, Population Projections, medium scenario

22 Major projects in the province are making significant investments and boosting the local economy. Hebron Offshore Oil Development ( ) Lower Churchill Phase 1, Muskrat Falls Hydroelectric Generation Facility ( ) Hibernia Offshore Oil Development, Southern Extension Unit ( ) Husky Energy Offshore Oil Project / South White Rose Extension ( ) Vale Long Harbour Nickel Processing Facility ( ) $14 B $6.99 B $2.0 B $1.2 B $4.25 B ($US) Note : This is not a complete list of Major Projects. Source: Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division

23 Average weekly earnings are on the rise, increasing 5.1% in 2014 and 65% since Average January Weekly Earnings ($) St. John's CMA $1,100 $1,000 $913 $949 $997 $900 $800 $748 $805 $860 $700 $658 $781 $600 $605 $640 $ Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM)

24 St. John s CMA had the second largest increase in median total income among major Canadian cites between 2011 and The median family income rose by 3.4% compared to an increase of 1.7% in Canada. Median total income of census families % Change to 2012 Calgary 94,810 98, % St. John's 84,280 87, % Edmonton 93,190 96, % Kelowna 71,560 73, % Sherbrooke 67,090 68, % Abbotsford-Mission 65,210 66, % Barrie 77,820 79, % Quebec 80,370 81, % Trois-Rivieres 66,000 67, % Montreal 70,190 71, % Saskatoon 86,000 87, % Vancouver 70,010 71, % Toronto 70,800 71, % Canada 73,320 74, % Source: Statistics Canada

25 Billions $ Increased household income resulted in growth in the retail sector, retail sales increased by 6.5% in 2014 to 4.1 billion. Retail Sales - St. John's CMA Source: Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division

26 86% of businesses in St. John s CMA have less than 20 employees. % Businesses by # of Employees St. John's CMA 2014 (n=8,441) 11.4% 2.2% 0.3% 31.8% 54.2% 1 to 4 5 to to to Source: Statistics Canada, Business Register

27 Approximately 29% students enrolled at Memorial University in 2014 were from out of province. Number of International Students and Other Canadian Students Enrolled at MUN Other Canadian International Source: Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador - Fact Book 2014.

28 St. John's average occupancy rate was 67.3% in 2014, down from 73.4% in New hotel construction influenced the comparison of the year over year change in occupancy rate. The average rate increased to $ per night in 2014 from $ in Note: These numbers reflect all room nights including major hotels, boutique hotels, and B & Bs Source: Destination St. John s

29 Thousands Passenger traffic reached a record high at St. John's International Airport. The number of passenger movements increased 6.0% in 2014 to over 1.5 million. Airline Passenger Movements at St. John's International Airport (000's) Source: St. John's International Airport Authority and Transport Canada

30 Thousands Total port cargo has increased 3.2% over the last ten years while vessel arrivals have increased by 35% St. John's Total Port Cargo (metric tonnes) (000's) St. John's Port Vessel Arrivals Note: vessel arrivals exclude non-commercial, e.g., Department of National Defence and small commercial vessels entering the Port of St. John s. Source: St. John's Port Authority

31 City Magnets III: Benchmarking the Attractiveness of 50 Canadian Cities The City of St. John s received an A grade in this study from the Conference Board of Canada. St. John s is ranked as the sixth most attractive city in Canada for newcomers. St. John s ranked second out of 50 cities in the category of full-time employment (2011 data). St. John s is one of only 2 cities to receive an A in Health. Note: City Magnets III is a study conducted by the Conference Board of Canada that grades and ranks 50 Canadian cities according to features that make them attractive to mobile populations. Released in