Canadian Consumer Credit Trends. Q Prepared by: Equifax Analytical Services
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1 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends Q Prepared by: Equifax Analytical Services
2 About Equifax Inc. Equifax is a global leader in consumer, commercial and workforce information solutions that provide businesses of all sizes and consumers with insight and information they can trust. Equifax organizes and assimilates data on more than 500 million consumers and 81 million businesses worldwide, and uses advanced analytics and proprietary technology to create and deliver customized insights that enrich both the performance of businesses and the lives of consumers. Headquartered in Atlanta, Equifax operates or has investments in 18 countries and is a member of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index. Its common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol EFX. For more information, please visit The graphs contained in this report are for informational purposes only. Equifax Canada Co. makes no representation, claim, warranty, or guarantee in respect of the information contained herein Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved. Contributors Regina Malina, Director, Modeling & Analytics Regina s background is in statistical analysis, campaign management and research with over 15 years of experience across various industries. Before joining Equifax as Director of Modeling and Analytics, she held senior analytics, customer and data insights roles at various organizations including Bank of Montreal, Loyalty One, and Intact Insurance (formerly ING Insurance), and brings knowledge from many industries including retail, financial, pharmaceutical, CPG and insurance. In her past roles she developed statistical solutions, oversaw analytical and measurement projects, and assisted in the specification of best CRM practices related to campaign management, business intelligence application and data mining ensuring optimal targeting for marketing communications. Regina holds a Master of Science degree in Statistics. Tara Zecevic, Vice President, Technology and Analytic Services Tara has over 17 years of progressive experience within the financial services sector with a strong consultative approach to crafting solutions in both established and emerging markets. Tara s career has spanned marketing solutions, sales and product management for fraud, analytic and decisioning solutions. Tara has a Hon. B. Sc. and Certificate in Human Resources from University of Toronto. She currently sits on the Credit Canada Debt Solutions board is also a member of the IAFCI, CSRSA and Credit Association. 2 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
3 Introduction Introduction Methodology Highlights Summary
4 Introduction Equifax is one of the most reliable sources of Canadian consumer credit data available. This report will help companies dealing with consumers assess where the market is trending in terms of indebtedness and credit worthiness. This is the Q Equifax report on Canada s consumer credit industry, including national credit cards, revolving and installment loans, as well as personal, retail, sales, auto finance and mortgages. Methodology Data for this report, including scores, are sourced from the Equifax Canada data warehouse, which stores the majority of credit transactions that occur in Canada. There over 24 million unique consumer files. Transaction volumes for data are estimated at 105 million per month. Highlights Macro Economic Indicators Canada Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 0.8% in Q2 2013, the fastest pace in the past seven quarters. Canada s unemployment rate is slightly down: 0.2 percentage points to 6.9% in Q The over-night lending rate remains at 1% as of Q2, 2013 since Q3, Consumer Credit Indicators (compared to the same period last year): Average debt (outstanding balances) has increased by 3.7%. Consumer demand for new credit has increased by 5.0%. The 90 day+ delinquency rate has decreased to 1.13%. Consumer bankruptcies have increased by 2.1% in August The average loss per consumer resulting from bankruptcies (excluding mortgage debt) was $35,151 in August 2013, increased by 2.8%. 4 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
5 Summary The Canadian economic environment forecast, consumer behaviour and policymakers approach did not change significantly since the previous quarter. Stability and slow growth accurately describe the current state. In the first half of 2013, the unemployment rate decreased to 6.9%, annual inflation rate stayed low, GDP expanded by 0.8% and the Bank of Canada kept the lending rate at 1%, where it has been since September As consumer confidence increases, they continue to take on debt but with continued responsibility. The national delinquency rate has consistently decreased in the past three years, reaching the lowest number on record of 1.13% in Q3 of While consumer spending has been a key aspect of the economic recovery so far, there is still an expectation that exports will be doing more of the heavy lifting in the future. Demand for New Credit: After some declines, consumer demand for new credit continues to pick up quickly: in the third quarter of 2013 it is 5% higher than in the same quarter last year. Year-over-year increases in new credit are seen in all regions, with the highest experience in the Western region of over 7%. Average balances, limits and utilization of newly opened accounts are lower than at the same period last year. A couple of patterns to note: While utilization of newly opened installment loans indicates a stable trend, average balances and limits have increased again compared to the same period last year. Newly opened revolving loans have decreased significantly on all accounts: limit, balance and utilization. The average balance, limits and utilization of newly opened auto loans are stable. Total Debt: Consumer debt continues to grow. On a debt classification basis, the auto sector shows the most significant increase of 7.9% % year-over-year. The national delinquency rate has consistently decreased in the past three years, reaching the lowest number on record of 1.13% in Q3 of 2013, while consumer debt continues to increases. 5 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
6 Summary Average Debt: Overall, while average balance and limits steadily increase, utilization continues to show stability. A couple of patterns to note: The average utilization of revolving loans has decreased steadily. Average bank installment loan balances and limits continue to increase. Auto loans continue to increase, although at a lower pace than in previous quarters. Consumer Level: Average balance and limit per consumer continues to increase in all regions, while the average utilization is unchanged compared with the same period last year. Average debt is increasing in all age groups, but the age group has the lowest debt growth rate. Delinquency: The national 90 day+ delinquency rate has consistently decreased over the past three years. As of Q3/2013, it has reached the lowest number on record of 1.13%. The national trend is observed in all regions and major cities, with Quebec having the lowest delinquency rate and the Eastern region having the highest rate. Although decreased by almost 29% compared to a year earlier, personal finance loans have the highest delinquency rate of 4.94%. Revolving and auto loan delinquency rates are the lowest. Bankruptcies: The number of bankruptcies has decreased since Ontario and the Western region continue to lead in terms of the rate of decrease in the number of bankruptcies, while Quebec lags behind. The average bankruptcy balance has been decreasing in Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
7 Canada Overview Canada Real GDP Unemployment Rate Interest Rate
8 Canada Overview - GDP Real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.8% in the second quarter 2013, the fastest pace in the past seven quarters, driven mainly by an increase in exports. However, the growth is very nominal. Source: Statistics Canada 8 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
9 Canada Overview Unemployment Rate Compared to the second quarter 2013, the unemployment rate was decreased slightly to 6.9%. Source: Statistics Canada 9 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
10 Canada Overview Interest Rate The Bank of Canada overnight interest rate has remained unchanged at 1% since Q This constant lowinterest rate environment has been a main driver for the continued increase in consumer credit indebtedness over the past few years. Source: Bank of Canada 10 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
11 New Credit Demand
12 Equifax Credit Inquiries Consumer demand for new credit continues to increase and is now 5.0% more when compared to the same quarter last year. % Changes 2009 vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Year- over-year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Inquiries -1.0% 2.1% 3.6% 2.1% -3.1% -6.4% -4.9% 7.9% -1.7% -0.6% -0.2% -8.8% 2.6% 0.8% -0.1% -1.5% -5.2% 2.6% 5.0% 12 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
13 Consumer Debt Trends Total Debt Average Debt - Major Cities Average Debt - New Accounts Average Debt - Consumer Level
14 Total Debt Distribution All Credit Products ($ Billions) Consumer debt continues to grow. As of Q3 2013, Canadian consumers owe $1,360.7 billion, compared to $ 1,345.5 billion in Q and $ 1,291.2 billion a year earlier, an increase of 1.1% and 5.4%, respectively. Total Debt $ 1361 Billions Q On a debt classification basis, the Auto, Mortgage, and Installment Loan sectors continue to show significant increases of 7.9%,6.4%, and 5.7% year-over-year, respectively. Mortgage figures are based on information reported to Equifax and do not include the entire Mortgage market. 14 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
15 Total Debt All Credit Products (Except Mortgages) While volumes were unchanged, moderate year-overyear growth is observed in total credit balances and credit limits 3.7% and 3.8%, respectively. % Changes Year- over-year 2008 vs vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Balance 16.0% 15.0% 14.3% 11.2% 8.5% 8.0% 6.6% 7.0% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 6.3% 1.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 3.4% 2.6% 1.8% 3.2% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% Total Limit 14.5% 14.6% 13.4% 10.0% 7.3% 4.9% 3.5% 3.9% 5.1% 5.2% 4.7% 4.0% 1.4% 1.2% 1.9% 0.5% 3.6% 3.3% 2.7% 4.7% 4.4% 3.6% 3.8% Number of Accounts 2.9% 4.0% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% -1.2% -1.7% -1.1% -0.8% -0.8% -0.6% -0.8% -2.6% -3.5% -3.3% -3.6% -1.4% -0.5% -0.8% 0.4% 0.7% -0.3% 0.0% 15 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
16 Total Debt National Credit Cards In contrast to the overall debt trend, National Credit Cards show an increase in number of new accounts. Balances continue to increase after a two-year period of negative or no change. % Changes Year- over-year 2008 vs vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Balance 12.9% 11.7% 11.0% 7.6% 6.9% 4.5% 3.2% 3.2% 1.9% 0.1% 1.2% -0.6% -2.7% -0.5% -1.8% -2.6% 0.4% -1.6% -1.4% 0.0% 0.8% 1.6% 2.6% Total Limit 11.8% 14.2% 12.9% 11.4% 8.3% 3.2% 2.2% 1.1% -0.3% -0.5% -0.2% -1.8% -0.7% -0.7% -1.1% -0.9% 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 2.1% 2.2% 1.5% 2.4% Number of Accounts 5.7% 7.4% 7.0% 5.7% 5.2% 2.4% 1.8% 1.7% -1.3% -0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 2.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.7% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 3.8% 3.0% 3.4% 4.3% 16 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
17 Total Debt Bank Installment Loans Outstanding balances and limits continue to increase for Bank Installment Loans. Given that Bank Auto Finance is a significant portion of this segment, this increase correlates with overall record Q3 automotive sales. % Changes Year- over-year 2008 vs vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Balance 10.0% 6.5% 6.2% 6.4% -3.6% -1.3% 1.5% 6.5% 13.5% 12.0% 11.1% 6.5% 3.7% 6.6% 4.1% 3.2% 4.9% 3.6% 3.1% 5.9% 6.1% 4.1% 5.7% Total Limit 8.7% 5.9% 5.6% 5.8% -2.8% -0.6% 2.0% 6.1% 12.8% 8.9% 7.5% 3.7% 0.7% 9.5% 7.6% 2.8% 10.0% 4.8% 4.4% 10.7% 6.0% 4.1% 5.7% Number of Accounts 3.6% 1.8% 1.7% 2.2% -1.4% 1.4% 3.8% 5.0% 7.1% 6.1% 6.6% 5.7% 1.7% 3.0% -0.4% -0.2% 1.1% 0.2% -0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.9% 17 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
18 Total Debt Bank Revolving Loans Limits for Revolving Loans are increasing, while volumes are also increasing but at a slower pace. Outstanding balances are staying at the same levels as consumers are not fully utilizing available credit limits. % Changes Year- over-year 2008 vs vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Balance 21.7% 22.9% 25.0% 19.9% 21.8% 21.6% 20.7% 16.5% 14.1% 10.7% 8.9% 8.6% 2.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% 2.8% 2.9% 1.4% 2.0% 3.3% 3.1% 1.8% Total Limit 21.4% 20.8% 21.3% 15.1% 14.7% 12.9% 11.7% 10.4% 10.2% 8.8% 8.5% 9.4% 5.4% 4.4% 3.9% 3.0% 5.6% 5.9% 4.7% 5.6% 5.9% 5.5% 4.9% Number of Accounts 10.8% 10.3% 11.4% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.1% -0.2% -1.6% -1.2% -0.5% 1.4% 2.3% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 2.5% 3.0% 18 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
19 Total Debt Bank Revolving Loans Secured (Secured Loan: Limit >= $50K) The total debt increase for Revolving Loans are mainly due to the growth in secured loans. % Changes Year- over-year 2008 vs vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Balance 30.5% 31.6% 33.5% 27.5% 28.9% 27.5% 26.1% 20.2% 16.9% 13.3% 11.6% 11.6% 5.8% 2.9% 1.5% 1.3% 3.8% 4.2% 2.7% 3.8% 5.0% 4.1% 2.1% Total Limit 29.8% 28.9% 28.6% 22.1% 21.4% 18.6% 17.4% 14.7% 13.6% 12.5% 12.1% 13.0% 8.7% 6.6% 5.6% 4.3% 7.4% 7.5% 6.2% 7.2% 7.7% 6.9% 5.7% Number of Accounts 23.1% 22.7% 22.6% 16.2% 16.4% 14.7% 14.3% 12.4% 11.5% 10.2% 9.5% 10.5% 6.0% 4.4% 3.7% 1.9% 5.1% 5.5% 4.2% 5.3% 6.4% 5.7% 5.2% 19 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
20 Total Debt Bank Revolving Loans Unsecured (Unsecured Loan: Limit < $50K) Unsecured loan volumes and limits continue to increase at a very slow pace, while outstanding balances remain flat. % Changes Year- over-year 2008 vs vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Balance 7.7% 8.1% 10.0% 5.7% 8.0% 9.3% 9.0% 8.1% 5.7% 4.4% 2.2% 1.0% -2.7% -3.6% -3.1% 0.0% 0.1% -0.6% -2.1% -3.2% -1.6% 0.2% 0.9% Total Limit 10.2% 9.4% 10.5% 4.5% 4.2% 3.3% 1.8% 2.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 2.2% 0.6% -0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 2.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.9% Number of Accounts 9.0% 8.5% 9.7% 3.8% 3.4% 2.5% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% -1.4% -2.9% -2.3% -1.0% 0.6% 1.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 2.5% 20 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
21 Total Debt Auto Finance (Non-Bank, Captive) Auto Finance sector growth continues this quarter at a very robust rate. % Changes Year- over-year 2008 vs vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Balance 19.5% 16.2% 4.4% 0.8% -7.3% -11.9% -15.3% -15.4% -9.5% -5.0% 1.2% 6.3% 7.1% 8.3% 7.7% 7.5% 10.9% 8.3% 9.2% 11.4% 9.4% 8.6% 7.9% Total Limit 16.5% 14.3% 4.3% 1.8% -4.1% -6.8% -9.3% -10.5% -6.5% -4.6% -1.7% 0.2% -0.2% 1.0% -0.5% -0.9% 3.9% 2.7% 5.3% 8.3% 4.9% 6.1% 6.9% Number of Accounts 15.2% 13.5% 3.8% 1.0% -5.6% -9.5% -11.2% -12.2% -7.9% -6.7% -4.9% -3.4% -5.9% -4.2% -3.3% -3.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.4% 3.7% 2.9% 4.5% 5.4% 21 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
22 Consumer Debt Trends Total Debt Average Debt - Major Cities Average Debt - New Accounts Average Debt - Consumer Level
23 Average Debt Toronto Average balances and limits show steady increases, while utilization decreases slightly. % Changes Year- over-year 2009 vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average Balance 7.3% 9.8% 9.9% 10.1% 9.4% 10.7% 8.6% 7.4% 4.1% 3.3% 3.3% 2.9% 3.9% 0.7% 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 2.4% 1.6% Average Limit 5.5% 5.7% 5.3% 5.4% 6.1% 7.7% 6.7% 6.0% 4.5% 4.2% 4.5% 3.0% 5.2% 3.2% 3.1% 4.5% 2.4% 3.0% 2.7% Average Utilization 1.8% 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% 3.2% 2.8% 1.8% 1.3% -0.4% -0.8% -1.1% -0.1% -1.2% -2.4% -2.5% -3.2% -1.7% -0.6% -1.1% 23 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
24 Average Debt Montreal Average balances and limits show steady growth. Average utilization has been flat over the last two quarters. % Changes Year- over-year 2009 vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average Balance 9.7% 11.7% 10.9% 10.7% 9.3% 11.0% 9.5% 8.1% 6.0% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.3% 3.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 4.6% 4.1% Average Limit 8.7% 8.6% 7.7% 7.2% 6.5% 6.8% 5.1% 5.1% 4.5% 4.0% 5.3% 3.8% 4.5% 4.2% 4.0% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% Average Utilization 1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 3.3% 2.6% 3.9% 4.2% 2.8% 1.4% 0.0% -0.7% 1.1% 0.7% -0.4% -0.5% -1.3% -1.0% 0.1% -0.4% 24 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
25 Average Debt Vancouver Average balances remained unchanged versus the same quarter last year. % Changes Year- over-year 2009 vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average Balance 14.5% 5.1% 5.9% 4.9% 11.3% 10.8% 7.7% 6.3% 3.1% 2.6% 2.3% 1.6% 2.6% 2.0% 3.2% 4.3% 3.2% 2.0% -0.3% Average Limit 9.6% 4.4% 4.1% 3.3% 6.9% 7.7% 6.1% 5.4% 3.6% 4.1% 4.2% 3.3% 5.0% 3.6% 3.7% 4.6% 2.9% 2.2% 1.3% Average Utilization 4.4% 0.6% 1.7% 1.5% 4.1% 2.9% 1.6% 0.9% -0.4% -1.5% -1.8% -1.6% -2.3% -1.6% -0.5% -0.4% 0.2% -0.2% -1.6% 25 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
26 Average Debt Calgary Average balances and limits show steady growth. Average utilization have shown little change over the last few quarters. % Changes Year- over-year 2009 vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average Balance 10.6% 11.6% 10.4% 9.3% 9.2% 9.9% 8.6% 7.0% 4.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 0.8% -1.3% -1.4% 2.1% 3.6% 3.8% Average Limit 7.0% 6.7% 5.9% 5.0% 5.2% 6.4% 5.5% 4.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.9% 3.1% 3.6% 1.8% 0.6% 1.3% 3.2% 4.2% 4.7% Average Utilization 3.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.3% 3.0% 2.2% 0.8% -0.4% -0.6% 0.3% -0.2% -1.0% -1.9% -2.7% -1.0% -0.6% -0.9% 26 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
27 Average Debt Ottawa Average balances and limits grew steadily. Average utilization has been flat over the last few quarters. % Changes Year- over-year 2009 vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average Balance 6.7% 8.6% 8.4% 8.5% 8.2% 9.4% 8.3% 7.5% 4.2% 3.9% 4.5% 4.0% 5.3% 3.0% 2.8% 3.1% 2.6% 4.2% 3.3% Average Limit 5.4% 5.6% 5.2% 5.1% 5.5% 6.8% 5.9% 5.7% 4.3% 4.4% 5.0% 3.5% 5.6% 4.0% 3.8% 4.7% 3.0% 3.7% 3.4% Average Utilization 1.2% 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 1.7% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% 0.4% -0.3% -0.9% -1.0% -1.5% -0.4% 0.5% -0.2% 27 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
28 Average Debt Edmonton Average balances and limits show the fastest growth among all major cities, with 7.5% and 6.6% year-over-year increases respectively. % Changes Year- over-year 2009 vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average Balance 9.3% 9.5% 7.9% 7.0% 8.6% 9.2% 8.1% 6.6% 4.1% 3.0% 3.4% 5.6% 5.8% 3.2% 1.1% -0.2% 5.0% 6.4% 7.5% Average Limit 5.9% 5.4% 4.1% 3.4% 5.2% 6.0% 5.1% 4.2% 3.1% 3.2% 4.0% 4.8% 5.9% 3.9% 2.6% 2.0% 5.0% 5.8% 6.6% Average Utilization 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.3% 0.9% -0.2% -0.5% 0.8% 0.0% -0.6% -1.5% -2.1% -0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 28 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
29 Average Debt Halifax Average balances and limits continue to increase. Average utilization has been flat over the last few quarters. % Changes Year- over-year 2009 vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average Balance 9.4% 10.4% 9.5% 8.2% 7.0% 7.7% 8.0% 5.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.0% 4.9% 5.7% 4.4% 4.0% 3.7% 2.5% 3.3% 2.8% Average Limit 7.7% 7.6% 6.0% 4.9% 4.6% 5.0% 5.2% 3.7% 3.5% 4.5% 4.4% 3.8% 5.6% 4.2% 4.1% 5.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0% Average Utilization 1.5% 2.6% 3.2% 3.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% -0.1% -0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% -0.1% -1.4% -0.4% 0.1% -0.2% 29 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
30 Consumer Debt Trends Total Debt Average Debt - Major Cities Average Debt - New Accounts Average Debt - Consumer Level
31 Average Debt All Credit Products (Except Mortgages) New Accounts Average balances, limits and utilization of newly opened accounts are lower than at the same period last year. % Changes Year- over-year 2009 vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average Balance -4.5% -0.9% 9.6% 30.1% 27.4% 26.8% 1.4% -13.0% -7.9% -14.2% 4.0% 7.5% 0.6% 1.6% 6.3% 1.7% -6.0% -6.2% -5.8% Average Limit -5.3% -3.2% 5.3% 17.6% 18.5% 19.4% -1.5% -10.5% -3.3% -10.5% 7.9% 10.4% 1.0% -3.4% 0.5% -4.2% -6.3% -6.9% -4.1% Average Utilization 0.8% 2.4% 4.1% 10.6% 7.6% 6.2% 2.9% -2.8% -4.7% -4.2% -3.6% -2.6% -0.4% 5.2% 5.8% 6.2% 0.2% 0.7% -1.8% 31 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
32 Consumer Debt Trends Total Debt Average Debt - Major Cities Average Debt - New Accounts Average Debt - Consumer Level
33 Average Balance By Region (Except Mortgages) Consumer Level Average debt per consumer is increasing in all regions. % Changes Year- over-year 2008 vs vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Ontario 11.5% 8.7% 9.3% 7.7% 7.6% 7.9% 7.6% 6.9% 5.6% 3.1% 1.5% 2.3% 0.9% 2.5% 3.1% 1.2% 2.6% 0.6% -0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% Quebec 17.3% 23.1% 22.3% 12.0% 19.2% 10.3% 10.7% 9.1% 8.8% 7.7% 7.8% 8.2% 6.2% 6.4% 5.3% 4.3% 5.9% 4.5% 3.7% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.4% West 17.8% 13.9% 13.6% 12.1% 6.5% 6.4% 5.3% 4.2% 6.3% 3.1% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 3.1% 2.9% 1.8% 2.2% 0.7% -0.5% 0.3% 2.7% 2.5% 3.0% East 12.2% 11.1% 11.6% 10.8% 9.3% 7.6% 6.9% 4.9% 4.0% 2.0% 1.2% 1.7% 2.2% 4.8% 5.4% 4.8% 5.1% 3.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% National 14.8% 13.0% 13.1% 10.3% 9.2% 7.8% 7.3% 6.1% 6.4% 3.9% 2.9% 3.2% 2.2% 3.5% 3.6% 2.2% 3.3% 1.6% 0.7% 1.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 33 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
34 Average Balance By Age (Except Mortgages) Consumer Level Average debt is increasing in all age groups. The age group has the lowest debt growth rate. Even though their average debt is one of the smallest, 65+ age group continues to accumulate debt at the highest rate. % Changes Year- over-year 2008 vs vs vs vs vs vs 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q % 8.3% 7.6% 6.4% 2.2% 1.1% -0.7% -2.9% -2.9% -4.8% -5.3% -4.5% -4.4% -1.6% -1.0% -3.4% 4.3% 2.6% 3.2% 8.5% 3.6% 4.0% 3.3% % 11.2% 10.7% 7.4% 4.8% 3.4% 2.3% 1.0% 1.5% -0.9% -1.1% -0.6% -1.4% 0.0% 0.4% -0.1% 1.2% 0.1% -0.8% -0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% % 13.9% 13.8% 10.6% 9.5% 7.9% 6.8% 5.7% 6.0% 3.7% 3.0% 3.4% 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 0.7% 2.1% 0.9% -0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% % 13.7% 13.8% 10.8% 10.4% 8.9% 8.2% 7.2% 7.6% 5.4% 4.7% 4.9% 3.3% 3.8% 3.6% 2.2% 3.3% 2.2% 1.4% 2.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% % 13.4% 13.9% 11.4% 11.1% 9.4% 9.1% 8.0% 8.5% 6.4% 5.4% 5.2% 3.8% 4.4% 4.1% 3.0% 3.5% 2.3% 1.6% 2.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% % 14.6% 15.4% 13.8% 13.5% 12.0% 11.9% 10.7% 13.0% 10.4% 9.2% 8.2% 5.4% 8.6% 8.1% 7.4% 8.1% 4.4% 3.9% 4.6% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% Overall 14.8% 13.0% 13.1% 10.3% 9.2% 7.8% 7.3% 6.1% 6.4% 3.9% 2.9% 3.2% 2.2% 3.5% 3.6% 2.2% 3.3% 1.6% 0.7% 1.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 34 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
35 Credit Risk Trends Delinquency Bankruptcy
36 90+ Delinquency Rate (Except Mortgage) The National 90+ delinquency rate has consistently decreased in the past three years. As of Q3/2013, it has reached the lowest number on record of 1.13%. Note: Delinquency is defined as 90 + Days or worse on a trade. Delinquency Rate = Total Delinquent Balance/Total Balance 36 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
37 90+ Delinquency Rate By Major City All major cities in Canada are showing the same trend of reduced serious delinquency. Note: Delinquency is defined as 90 + Days or worse on a trade. Delinquency Rate = Total Delinquent Balance/Total Balance 37 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
38 Credit Risk Trends Delinquency Bankruptcy
39 Bankruptcies The number of bankruptcies have decreased since Volume % Change 12-Month Period Ending July 2013 to August 2012 to August 31 August 31 August 2013 July 2013 August 2012 August 2013 August ,719 9,842 9, % 2.07% 118, ,104 % Change -2.86% 39 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends
40 Canadian Consumer Credit Trends Q Prepared by: Equifax Analytical Services About Equifax Inc. Equifax is a global leader in consumer, commercial and workforce information solutions that provide businesses of all sizes and consumers with insight and information they can trust. Equifax organizes and assimilates data on more than 500 million consumers and 81 million businesses worldwide, and uses advanced analytics and proprietary technology to create and deliver customized insights that enrich both the performance of businesses and the lives of consumers. Headquartered in Atlanta, Equifax operates or has investments in 18 countries and is a member of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index. Its common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol EFX. For more information, please visit The graphs contained in this report are for informational purposes only. Equifax Canada Co. makes no representation, claim, warranty, or guarantee in respect of the information contained herein Equifax Canada Co. All rights reserved.
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