2015 Realtors Association of Edmonton Housing Forecast Seminar

Transcription

1 2015 Realtors Association of Edmonton Housing Forecast Seminar Edmonton Economic and Housing Market Outlook Christina Butchart, Senior Market Analyst Housing market intelligence you can count on

2 Edmonton CMA Forecast Summary f 2015f 2016f Economy Employment Growth (%) Net Migration 38,511 31,000 24,000 22,000 Resale Market* Total Sales 19,552 20,000 20,400 20,700 Average Price $344,977 $360,000 $371,000 $380,000 New Home Market Single-detached Starts 5,970 6,400 6,600 6,300 Multi-family Starts 8,719 6,900 6,400 6,000 Total Housing Starts 14,689 13,300 13,000 12,300 Rental Market (October Survey) Apartment Vacancy Rate 1.4% % 1.7% 1.9% Average Two-bedroom Rent $1,141 $1,200 $1,250 $1,280 Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, CREA, * Total Residential, CMHC Forecast (f), 1 Actual

3 50 Edmonton Employment Growth Growth has shifted to part-time positions yr/yr employment growth (,000s) 60 Full-time (FT) Part-time (PT) Source: Statistics Canada

4 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Edmonton CMA Employment employment growth year-over-year 7% Growth Employment growth will be more modest f 2015f 2016f Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)

5 Edmonton CMA Average Weekly Earnings average weekly earnings $1,100 Average earnings continue to move up $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $ Source: Statistics Canada

6 Edmonton CMA Unemployment seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (%) 8 Rate Unemployment rate has moved higher in Source: Statistics Canada

7 Edmonton CMA Unemployment unemployment rate 7% Rate Rate will move slightly lower in 2015 and % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% f 2015f 2016f Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)

8 Edmonton CMA Net Migration Despite decline, elevated net migration to support housing net migration demand 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, f 2015f 2016f Source: Statistics Canada, July to June, CMHC Forecast (f)

9 per cent Five-year Mortgage Rate Borrowing costs to rise modestly in latter part of 2015 but remain low 5-year Mortgage Rate Forecast f Source: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, CMHC forecast (f)

10 Edmonton s Rental Market Housing market intelligence you can count on

11 per cent 5 Edmonton CMA Apartment Vacancy Rate Vacancy rate has moved slightly higher f 2016f Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f), October Survey

12 units 2,500 2,000 Edmonton CMA Rental Apartments New rental units are starting to enter the market Starts Completions 1,500 1, Source: CMHC Jan Nov

13 units 68,000 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 Edmonton CMA Rental Apartment Universe Rental apartment universe increased in 2013, , Source: CMHC, October Survey

14 Edmonton CMA Average Apartment Rent Rents will continue to rise as vacancy rate remains low average two-bedroom rent $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ f 2016f Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f), October Survey

15 Edmonton Per cent Change of Average Rent Rents increasing faster than inflation per cent change of fixed-sample average rent Source: CMHC, October Survey

16 per cent Edmonton CMA Condo Apartments in Rental More condominiums are rented every year Source: CMHC, October Survey

17 Edmonton s Resale Home Market Housing market intelligence you can count on

18 units 3,000 2,500 Edmonton Monthly MLS Sales Sales slowly trending higher Actual Trended 2,000 1,500 1, Source: CREA, Trended by CMHC

19 Edmonton MLS Average Price Price growth picking up as demand outpaces supply average monthly price, seasonally adjusted $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $ Source: CREA

20 units 5,000 Edmonton New Listings New listings starting to move higher Actual Trended 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: CREA, Trended by CMHC

21 Edmonton MLS Active Listings Active listings have levelled off and will move higher units 12,000 Actual Trend 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: EREB, Trended by CMHC

22 Edmonton s New Single-Detached Market Housing market intelligence you can count on

23 units 10,000 8,000 Edmonton CMA Single-detached Starts Strong growth in recent months SAAR Trend 6,000 4,000 2, Source: CMHC, SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate)

24 Edmonton CMA Single-detached Inventory Inventory has declined in recent months complete and unabsorbed units 1,200 Spec Homes Show Homes 1, Source: CMHC

25 8,000 7,000 Edmonton CMA Single-detached Supply units under construction and new home inventory Supply inching up Inventory Under Construction 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: CMHC

26 Edmonton CMA Single-detached Starts units 10,000 Growth in 2014 and ,000 6,000 4,000 2, f 2015f 2016f Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)

27 Edmonton CMA Single-detached absorbed price (6-month moving average) $600,000 Price Absorbed prices starting to move higher $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $ Source: CMHC

28 Edmonton CMA Absorptions by Price Range Higher end homes accounting for more of the market share of sales (Jan-Nov) 40% 35% % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% < Source: CMHC ($,000 s)

29 Edmonton Single-detached Absorbed Price single-detached absorbed price $600,000 $500,000 Prices will continue to rise but at a slower pace $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $ f 2015f 2016f Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)

30 Edmonton s New Multi-family Market Housing market intelligence you can count on

31 units 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Edmonton CMA Multi-family Starts Multi-family construction has declined SAAR Trend Source: CMHC, SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate)

32 Edmonton CMA Multi-family Starts by Type units (Jan-Nov) 5,000 Semi-detached only type posting increases in , ,000 2,000 1,000 0 Semi-detached Row Apartment Source: CMHC

33 Edmonton CMA Multi-family Inventory units in ownership inventory 900 Semi-Detached Row Apartments 800 Apartment inventory remains low Source: CMHC

34 units 12,000 10,000 Edmonton Multi-family Under Construction Under construction near record high Semi-detached Row Apartment 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: CMHC

35 Edmonton CMA Multi-family Starts Starts will continue to moderate in 2015 and 2016 units 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, f 2015f 2016f Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)

36 Edmonton s Arena District Source: City of Edmonton

37 Downtown Apartment Construction Under Construction 6 structures with 924 units Planned or Pre-sale 19 structures Source: CMHC

38 Edmonton CMA Forecast Summary f 2015f 2016f Economy Employment Growth (%) Net Migration 38,511 31,000 24,000 22,000 Resale Market* Total Sales 19,552 20,000 20,400 20,700 Average Price $344,977 $360,000 $371,000 $380,000 New Home Market Single-detached Starts 5,970 6,400 6,600 6,300 Multi-family Starts 8,719 6,900 6,400 6,000 Total Housing Starts 14,689 13,300 13,000 12,300 Rental Market (October Survey) Apartment Vacancy Rate 1.4% % 1.7% 1.9% Average Two-bedroom Rent $1,141 $1,200 $1,250 $1,280 Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, CREA, * Total Residential, CMHC Forecast (f), 1 Actual

39 Contact Information Christina Butchart Senior Market Analyst, CMHC (780)

40 Thank You! Housing market intelligence you can count on