Food System Metrics for Quantifying Nutrition and Sustainability Outcomes

Transcription

1 Food System Metrics for Quantifying Nutrition and Sustainability Outcomes Adam Drewnowski (U Washington) Jessica Fanzo (Johns Hopkins U) David Gustafson (ILSI Research Foundation) TM

2 CIMSANS Mission Help food systems meet nutrition needs in more sustainable ways CIMSANS leads new partnerships on novel food system modeling methods, better informing adaptation to the increasing impacts of climate change, extreme events, and resource scarcity on sustainable nutrition security (SNS). Tri-partite approach TM 2

3 Food System Metrics Uses Set goals Track progress Evaluate interventions Identify opportunities source: DI Gustafson, A Gutman, W Leet, A Drewnowski, J Fanzo, J Ingram (2016). Seven Food System Metrics of Sustainable Nutrition Security, Sustainability, 8 (3),

4 Stakeholder-Driven Process Effort launched at Dublin workshop (April 2013) Broad tri-partite participation Working paper released in June 2014: Assessing Sustainable Nutrition Security: The Role of Food Systems (tri-partite co-authorship) Collected additional stakeholder feedback Second Workshop held in DC (February 2015) Nutrition modeling workgroup launched (June 2015) Conference calls with topical experts (Summer 2015) In-person meeting with TSC 1 staff (July 2015) Webinar to review final draft paper (December 2015) Peer-reviewed publication (February 2016) Seven Food System Metrics of Sustainable Nutrition Security 1 The Sustainability Consortium 4

5 Context-Setting Principles Our interest is food system performance relating to SNS at the national level, and we sought metrics which can be derived from data that are currently available or can be readily estimated. However, finer geographic scales are possible, contingent on data availability Metrics are composed of indicators We avoided creating new metrics or indicators when there were already suitable ones available 5

6 Metrics Definitions Equal weighting of combined indicators to derive each of the seven metrics Metrics & indicators all scored on a scale, using an appropriate method: Some already reported this way (e.g. ND-GAIN) Others naturally expressed as a percentage (e.g. Non-Staple Food Energy) If finite range of possible values (e.g. Shannon Diversity), then use a multiplicative constant Equation for open-ended indicators: Metric Indicator i =100 exp [ ln (0.5) ( F i F 50 )] where F i is the factor (e.g. GHG emissions or Land Use) for the i th unit (e.g. country) under consideration, and F 50 is the median (50 th percentile) of the full range of values for this factor across all units of interest, measured during a particular base year (e.g. 2015). eq. (1) 6

7 Food Nutrient Adequacy Non-Staple Food Energy (Remans et al. 2014) Percent of food calories from non-staples Shannon Diversity (ibid.) Shannon Diversity = 1 s i ln(s i i where s i is the share (by weight) of the i th food item in the food supply. Modified Functional Attribute Diversity (ibid.) Considers nutrient similarities of foods Nutrient Density Score (Fern et al. 2015) Compares nutrient availability to RDA, scale Population Share with Adequate Nutrients (Arsenault et al. 2015) Percent of population with nutrients above EAR, requires estimate of variance in intake ) scaled with multiplier 7

8 Ecosystem Stability Ecosystem Status (based on EPI) Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Includes methane from food waste & net soil carbon sequestration Net Freshwater Withdrawals Non-Renewable Energy Use Land Use System Boundary: each nation s food system All food system activities within its borders Except GHG emissions and non-renewable added based on final peer-review all measured per-capita scaled using eq. (1) energy use associated with transport of exported food, which are allocated to the importing country 8

9 Food Affordability & Availability added based on webinar feedback Food Affordability Share (as a percentage) of household expenditures on items other than food GFSI Food Availability GFSI = Global Food Security Index, The Economist Economic Intelligence Unit, with support from DuPont Poverty Index Proportion of population with income above reference poverty level ($1.90/day, per GFSI) Income Equality GINI Coefficient(%) 9

10 Sociocultural Wellbeing Gender Equity Global Gender Gap Index (GGCI), reported by World Economic Forum on 0-1 scale, multiplied by 100 Extent of Child Labor Percentage of children (ages 5-17, the ILO definition) in a country that are employed in the food system, scaled using eq. (1) Respect for Community Rights World Resources Institute (WRI) has quantified this using the Environmental Democracy Index (EDI), scaled to using multiplier Animal Health and Welfare World Animal Protection assigned letter grades to each country, scaled to using: A =95, B = 85, C = 75, D = 65, E = 55, F = 45, G =35 10

11 Resilience ND-GAIN Country Index Summarizes a country s vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges in combination with its readiness to improve resilience, scale Food Production Diversity Directly analogous to Shannon Diversity indicator for Food Nutrient Adequacy, except that it is calculated based on production amounts rather than national food supply, scaled using multiplier 11 11

12 Food Safety Foodborne Disease Burden Regional estimates reported by WHO (December 2015) Translated to scale using eq. (1) GFSI Food Safety Includes three components Presence of a food safety regulatory agency Population % with access to potable water Presence of a formal grocery sector Already on a scale 12

13 Waste and Loss Reduction The percentage of produced food that is not either lost (pre-consumer) or wasted (post-consumer) Regional estimates from FAO 13

14 Current Food System Performance Argentina Bangladesh Brazil Cameroon China India Netherlands Senegal USA 1 Food Nutrient Adequacy 2 Ecosystem Stability 3 Food Affordability & Availability 4 Sociocultural Wellbeing 5 Resilience 6 Food Safety 7 Waste & Loss Reduction Source: DI Gustafson, A Gutman, W Leet, A Drewnowski, J Fanzo, J Ingram (2016). Seven Food System Metrics of Sustainable Nutrition Security, Sustainability, 8 (3), 196.

15 Proposed Emphasis for AgMIP Nutrition Dietary diversity Non-staple energy Environmental GHG, Water, Land Economic Price, Access Income Inequality Societal Gender Equity Resilience Response to shocks Waste & Loss Pre- & Post-consumer Food System Metrics