The People s Report Card: A Note On Methodology

Transcription

1 The People s Report Card: A Note On Methodology

2 THE CONCEPT We need to help people understand what the Global Goals mean in a way that is relevant for their own lives. Policymakers, activists, and the general public need a comprehensive measure of how their country is doing against the Global Goals, in a form that they can readily understand and use, to become participants in the debate rather than observers. We need a shorthand for the Global Goals. The People s Report Card tracks how the world as a whole, and every country, are performing against the Global Goals. Report cards are something real people understand all over the world. A for Math, B for English, D for Chemistry, etc. The subjects of the People s Report Card will be three simple things that we all want for our lives, capturing the scope and ambition of Global Goals: Safe Healthy Free The ambition of the Global Goals is to get the world to an A overall and on each of these subjects. To measure these subjects rigorously and meaningfully, we do not need to reinvent the wheel. The People s Report Card is powered by the Social Progress Index, which was first introduced in 2013 and has become a leading measure of a country s performance. Since this methodology is already refined and appropriate data sources have already been identified, the first People s Report Card, grading the world as whole, is being launched in September 2015 to engage the global public in the Global Goals from the beginning. We will test and refine this methodology, updating when the Global Goals indicators are finalized, to release People s Report Cards for the World and every country in the world in September 2016 and annually thereafter. THE MODEL The Social Progress Index framework (below) overlaps significantly with the Global Goals. The People s Report Card bases the three subjects on the existing dimensions of the model: Safe: Basic Human Needs Healthy: Foundations of Wellbeing Free: Opportunity WORLD GRADES Grades for the People s Report Card are calculated using the 52 indicators in the Social Progress Index. 1 Methodology Note: People s Report Card Social Progress Imperative 2015

3 SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX OVERLAP WITH SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS Social Progress Index Goal 1: End poverty in all its form everywhere Goal 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all Goal 10: Reduce inequality within and between countries Goal 17: Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development Basic Human Needs Foundations of Wellbeing Opportunity Goal 2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture Goal 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages Goal 6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Goal 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Goal 9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation Goal 11: Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable Goal 16: Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels Goal 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages Goal 4: Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all Goal 5: Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls Goal 6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Goal 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Goal 9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation Goal 12: Ensure sustainable consumption and production pattern Goal 13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts Goal 14: Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development Goal 15: Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss Goal 16: Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels Goal 4: Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all Goal 5: Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls Goal 16: Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels Methodology Note: People s Report Card Social Progress Imperative

4 An A corresponds to achieving the goal; and every subsequent grade after that, i.e. B, C, and so on represents the likelihood of achieving the goal by The higher the grade, the more likely the goal will be achieved. Social Progress Index indicators closely align with targets in the current version of the Global Goals. A stronger and more robust alignment will be possible once the UN decides on a relevant set of indicators to measure each target (expected Spring 2016). To calculate the world grades, we use the population-weighted average values for Social Progress indicators. The world s performance on the Global Goals is translated into letter grades for the People s Report Card by following five steps: The first step is to align the SPI indicators with indicators from the Global Goals. Since the Global Goals indicators are not yet defined, this matching is only possible at the target level. When an exact match does not exist, the closest available match is used. Examples are provided below. Exact Match SPI Indicator Indicator Definition SDG Target Maternal Mortality Rate The annual number of female deaths from any cause related to or aggravated by pregnancy or its management (excluding accidental or incidental causes) during pregnancy and childbirth or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy, irrespective of the duration and site of the pregnancy, per 100,000 live births. 3.1 by 2030 reduce the global maternal mortality ratio to less than 70 per 100,000 live births Nearest Available Match SPI Indicator Indicator Definition SDG Target Suicide Rate Mortality due to self-inflicted injury, 3.4 by 2030 reduce by one-third per 100,000 people, age adjusted. pre-mature mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) through prevention and treatment, and promote mental health and wellbeing The second step is to estimate the anchor value at which the Global Goal can be considered achieved. This process is straightforward with some targets such as target 3.1, which aims to reduce global maternal mortality ratio to less than 70 per 100,000 live births. But this process is less straightforward when the target does not have defined success criteria. For example, target 16.5 aims to substantially reduce 3 Methodology Note: People s Report Card Social Progress Imperative 2015

5 corruption and bribery in all its forms but does not mandate a clear value at which the target will be achieved. In such cases, we approximate the target value on a case by case basis. The third step is to project the indicator value to four different time periods in the future 2030, 2045, 2060, and 2075 using historical data and simple linear projections. The projected values are then compared to the anchor value. The fourth step is to assign a letter grade (and the corresponding value on a 4-point grading scale). To do this, the following grading scheme is adopted: If the target for the indicator is projected to be achieved by 2030, the world receives a B (3.0) for that indicator. If the forecasted values for the indicator show improving performance, but at a slower pace than is required to achieve the goal by 2030, the world receives a C (2.0) for that indicator. If the forecasted values for the indicator show deteriorating performance, the world receives a D (1.0) for that indicator. For the world, there is no A, as there would be no need to have a goal for a target that has already been achieved. 1 The fifth and final step is to aggregate the indicator grades into a weighted-average grade for each component of the Social Progress Index. 2 The dimension grades are the averages of the component grades. The World Grade is the average of the graded score that the world receives in each of the three Social Progress Index dimensions. The preliminary results from this exercise are shown in Figure 1 (below). 1. For the World s Report Card, there are naturally no A s since no goals would be set for targets that have already been achieved, but A s will be used when country-level report cards are created in See the 2015 Social Progress Index Methodology Report for more information on how principal component analysis is used to assign corresponding indicator weights: VfTWV0aG9kb2xvZ3lfUmVwb3J0LnBkZiJdXQ/2015%20Methodology%20Report.pdf Methodology Note: People s Report Card Social Progress Imperative

6 THE PEOPLE S REPORT CARD POWERED BY: SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX SAFE HEALTHY FREE THE WORLD IN 2015 THE WORLD GETS A C MINUS GRADE AGAINST THE GLOBAL GOALS. HOW DO WE GET TO A BY 2030? IN PARTNERSHIP WITH: Figure 1: World Grades 5 Methodology Note: People s Report Card Social Progress Imperative 2015