NATIONAL ACCOUNTS VS BIG DATA

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1 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS VS BIG DATA Enrico Giovannini, University of Rome Tor Vergata Department of Economics and Finance

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4 Big Data (Wikipedia) Big data is a blanket term for any collection of data sets so large and complex that it becomes difficult to process using on-hand database management tools or traditional data processing applications. The challenges include capture, curation, storage, search, sharing, transfer, analysis and visualization. The growing maturity of the concept fosters a more sound difference between Big data and Business intelligence, regarding data and their use: Business Intelligence uses descriptive statistics with data with high information density to measure things, detect trends etc.; Big data uses inductive statistics and concepts from nonlinear system identification to infer laws (regressions, nonlinear relationships, and causal effects) from large data sets to reveal relationships, dependencies and perform predictions of outcomes and behaviors.

5 SNA 2008 The SNA measures what takes place in the economy, between which agents, and for what purpose. The SNA is designed to provide information about the behaviour of institutional units and the activities in which they engage, namely production, consumption and the accumulation of assets, in an analytically useful form.

6 SEEA 2012 The SEEA Central Framework is a multipurpose conceptual framework for understanding the interactions between the economy and the environment, and for describing stocks and changes in stocks of environmental assets. It puts statistics on the environment and its relationship to the economy at the core of official statistics. The SEEA Central Framework brings together, in a single measurement system, information on water, minerals, energy, timber, fish, soil, land and ecosystems, pollution and waste, production, consumption and accumulation.

7 SNA 2008 The SNA measures what takes place in the economy, between which agents, and for what purpose. The SNA is designed to provide information about the behaviour of institutional units and the activities in which they engage, namely production, consumption and the accumulation of assets, in an analytically useful form. Let s change the name from SNA to SEA

8 The EU Lisbon Treaty Article 3 1. The Union's aim is to promote peace, its values and the well-being of its peoples. 2. The Union shall offer its citizens an area of freedom, security and justice without internal frontiers, in which the free movement of persons is ensured in conjunction with appropriate measures with respect to external border controls, asylum, immigration and the prevention and combating of crime. 3. The Union shall establish an internal market. It shall work for the sustainable development of Europe based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive social market economy, aiming at full employment and social progress, and a high level of protection and improvement of the quality of the environment. It shall promote scientific and technological advance. It shall combat social exclusion and discrimination, and shall promote social justice and protection, equality between women and men, solidarity between generations and protection of the rights of the child. It shall promote economic, social and territorial cohesion, and solidarity among Member States. It shall respect its rich cultural and linguistic diversity, and shall ensure that Europe's cultural heritage is safeguarded and enhanced.

9 Social conditions of the EU

10 Sustainable development

11 Sustainable development goals and targets (2014) 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere 2. End hunger, achieve food security and adequate nutrition for all, and promote sustainable agriculture 3. Attain healthy life for all at all ages 4. Provide equitable and inclusive quality education and life-long learning opportunities for all 5. Attain gender equality, empower women and girls everywhere 6. Secure water and sanitation for all for a sustainable world 7. Ensure access to affordable, sustainable, and reliable modern energy services for all 8. Promote strong, inclusive and sustainable economic growth and decent work for all 9. Promote sustainable industrialization 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries 11. Build inclusive, safe and sustainable cities and human settlements 12. Promote sustainable consumption and production patterns 13. Promote actions at all levels to address climate change 14. Attain conservation and sustainable use of marine resources, oceans and seas 15. Protect and restore terrestrial ecosystems and halt all biodiversity loss 16. Achieve peaceful and inclusive societies, rule of law, effective and capable institutions 17. Strengthen and enhance the means of implementation and global partnership for sustainable development

12 Planetary boundaries

13 Do big data have a future? Definitely yes, but Accuracy/Reliability to be assessed against official figures Quality framework to be developed Evaluation of fields in which they can be used successfully It is likely that they will be used to: Produced flash estimates Evaluate relationships, feelings, worries, etc. Run market analyses Do forecasts

14 Do national accounts have a future? Human capital Intergenerational linkages Social sustainability / vulnerability / resilience Social accounting matrixes (disaggregation of the households sector) Unpaid work Circular economy Timeliness Focus on risk indicators (sustainability/vulnerability) Extract more value added from national accounts (indicators) Role of observation and of estimates (output gap, intangibles) When do we want to launch a new revision process of the SNA? Unacceptable to have 12 years between that start of the process and the publication of new data

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