U.S. Energy Storage Markets: Applications, Technologies and Outlook

Transcription

1 U.S. Energy Storage Markets: Applications, Technologies and Outlook Prepared For: Ravi Manghani Director, Energy Storage August 31, Argonne National Laboratory

2 About Greentech Media News/Online Greentech Media delivers business-to- business news, analysis and events at the forefront of the global energy transformation. Our coverage area extends across the clean energy industry with a focus on solar power and the electric utility market s evolution. Greentech Media s industry-leading coverage is provided by a team of analysts from our market intelligence arm, GTM Research, as well as our world-class journalists and global network of expert contributors. Research GTM Research is the market analysis and consulting arm of Greentech Media. GTM Research is comprised of analysts covering solar, grid edge, and energy storage markets. Our analysts combine diverse backgrounds in energy, environmental, emerging technology, information technology and strategic consulting sectors. This diverse team provides critical and timely market analysis in the form of research reports, consulting, and data subscription services. Event Greentech Media and GTM Research experts come together to produce all of Greentech Media s industry conferences throughout the year. These summits provide a platform for our latest market intelligence and draw together the industry influencers from organizations across the value chain. 1

3 Case Studies Are Worth Thousand Deployments

4 Residential Case Study: Green Mountain Power to Use Behind-the-Meter Storage to Reduce Peak Capacity and Transmission Costs Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Forward Forward Capacity Capacity Bill credit = Market Market (75%) $31.8/month/ 75 $6,501/customer $6,501/customer (100%) Transmission 225 customer 200 Total = $488K Total = $488K Costs (50%) Total benefit = $81K per year Total = $81K per year Transmission Costs (70%) Total benefit = $124K per year Rate rider = $37.5/month/ customer Total = $91K per year System Sale/Lease Cash Transaction Grid Service Source: Green Mountain Power, GTM Research Total Grid Services Benefits = $205K per year 3

5 08/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /15 23 Demand - With and Without Storage (kw) Non-Residential Case Study: Demand Reduction for a Commercial Customer Bill Savings Opportunity % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Storage State of Charge (%) 0 0% Baseline Demand (kw) After Storage Demand (kw) Storage SoC (%) Source: GTM Research The Economics of Commercial Energy Storage in the U.S.: The Outlook for Demand Charge Management 4

6 Non-Residential Case Study: Medium C&I Energy Storage Returns Above 5 Percent in Seven Utilities in 2016, in 17 Utilities in 2021 (Base Case) 2016 C&I Energy Storage Economics 2021 C&I Energy Storage Economics (Base Case) IRR 5%-10% IRR 10%+ IRR 5%-10% IRR 10%+ Source: GTM Research The Economics of Commercial Energy Storage in the U.S.: The Outlook for Demand Charge Management Source: GTM Research The Economics of Commercial Energy Storage in the U.S.: The Outlook for Demand Charge Management 5

7 Generation and Net System Load (MW) Utility Case Study: KIUC Centralized Generation and Net Load Today As of October 14, Existing Centralized Solar and Hydro :00 04:00 08:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 CT1 D6 D7 D8 D9 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 GT1 GT2 S1 Solar, Hydro System Load Source: KIUC, GTM Research. CT = Combustion turbine, D = Diesel engine, GT = Gas turbine, S = Steam turbine. Baseload Gas Combustion Turbine 6

8 Generation and Net System Load (MW) Utility Case Study: KIUC Centralized Generation and Net Load 13 MW Kapaia Solar Plant Addition Adding more solar leads to overgeneration, causing further stress on baseload fossil fuel plant :00 04:00 08:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 CT1 D6 D7 D8 D9 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 GT1 GT2 S1 Solar, Hydro KAPAIA Solar System Load Source: KIUC, NREL PVWatts, GTM Research. CT = Combustion turbine, D = Diesel engine, GT = Gas turbine, S = Steam turbine. 7

9 Generation and Net System Load (MW) Utility Case Study: KIUC Centralized Generation and Net Load 13 MW Kapaia Solar Plant Plus 13 MW/52 MWh Storage Plant Addition Combining storage with solar not only relieves stress on baseload generation, but can also eliminate operation of inefficient fossil fuel plants and reduce carbon emissions :00 04:00 08:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 CT1 D6 D7 D8 D9 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 GT1 GT2 S1 Solar, Hydro KAPAIA Solar+Storage System Load Source: KIUC, NREL PVWatts, GTM Research. CT = Combustion turbine, D = Diesel engine, GT = Gas turbine, S = Steam turbine. 8

10 Technologies and Outlook

11 Energy Storage Deployments by Technology MW (%) Lithium-Ion Chemistries Dominated Grid-Tied Storage Deployments at 97% in Q Quarterly Energy Storage Deployment Share by Technology (MW %) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q * Other includes flywheel and unidentified energy storage technologies Source: GTM Research / ESA U.S. Energy Storage Monitor: Q Lithium Ion Lead Acid Sodium Chemistries Flow - Vanadium Flow - Zinc Other 10

12 Commercial Storage Technologies Offer from Few Minutes to Few Hours Capabilities Storage Technology Comparison Lithium-Ion, Lead-Acid, Sodium-Based, Flow, Aqueous Liquid Metal, Zinc Hybrid Cathode, Ultracapacitors and Flywheels Storage Technology Characteristics Storage Technology Characteristics Storage Technology Characteristics Lithium-Ion Batteries Over 250 MW of utility-side batteries deployed; easiest to site, permit and finance on both sides of meter Flow Batteries DC efficiency of 65%-80%; cycle life reaching 10,000-12,000. Generally configured for 4+ hour discharge durations. Zinc Hybrid- Cathode Batteries Roundtrip efficiency of 75%; cells demonstrated cycle life of 6,000 in lab. Systems deployed today are rated for 5,000 cycles. Lead-Acid Batteries Cycle life ~1,000; no advanced management systems necessary. Advanced technologies can offer up to 5,000 cycles. Aqueous Batteries Roughly a lead-acid replacement; nonflammable, non-explosive, nontoxic; DC efficiency reaching greater than 80%; cycle life of 3,000 Ultracapacitor Energy Storage High power, low energy; cycle life of nearly 1 million and calendar life of up to 20 years Sodium-Based Batteries DC efficiency of ~85%; cycle life for sodium-based batteries is 3,500-4,500 and calendar life is years Liquid Metal Batteries DC efficiency of 80%; cycle life still being tested; capable of millisecond-level response Flywheel Energy Storage Roundtrip efficiencies of ~90%; cycle life of 100,000+ and calendar life of up to 20 years; response time of <4 milliseconds Source: GTM Research / ESA U.S. Energy Storage Monitor: Q

13 U.S. Annual Energy Storage Deployments by Segment (MW) U.S. Energy Storage Market Will Exceed the 2 GW Threshold in 2021 Market to Move to More Medium-to-Long Duration 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Behind-the-meter segments will be ~50% of annual storage market by , Discharge Duration (MWh/MW) E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E - Residential Non-Residential Utility Duration Source: GTM Research / ESA U.S. Energy Storage Monitor: Q

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