Great Basin Weather and Climate: Winter Recap, Current Status, Summer Prospects

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1 Great Basin Weather and Climate: Winter Recap, Current Status, Summer Prospects Kelly T. Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Great Basin Climate Forum Northern Nevada Science Center Desert Research Institute 10 April 2014

2

3 What s the Great Basin?? Hydrological & Biological Definitions USFS

4 Motivation - 1 / 2 (for web reference) Now that winter is fading, how have weather/climate events over the past cool season (or the past year, or however far back you want to go), had an effect on where things now stand? What are the conditions of the resource you deal with? Were there particular events or extended episodes that have exerted an influence, or will be expected to as we head through summer into autumn? What are your concerns, pertaining to climate, as we head into the coming summer and beyond? How adequately can you evaluate your current situation(s)? What information is missing? Are there steps that could be taken to improve the amount, or flow, of data and information? Are there routine monitoring products that would improve your ability to do your job? If information does exist, what would make it more useful, and easier to find, to digest, or to summarize?

5 Motivation - 2 / 2 (for web reference) What would make it easier to form linkages between weather and climate data and your own information? Conversely, for others who might be interested in what you monitor or do, how can your information be better disseminated? This meeting is not about climate change, but rather climate in its generality -- the everyday monitoring of climate, its quasi-operational components, and its practical implications. However, if slowly changing conditions are a factor, they are certainly suitable topics. The Great Basin Climate Forum is being tried as an experiment, and a learning vehicle for all concerned.

6 Many products and tools reachable at or through WRCC web pages Another set under way as part of Southwest Climate Science Center We d like your help in making this information more accessible, useful, and usable.

7 Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard In support of USDA Farm Services Agency and other Drought Activities gbdash.dri.edu

8 Also Department of Interior Southwest Climate Science Center Climate Monitoring Dashboard A quick glance of recent, current, future conditions, with access to more detail. For Southwest (left) Rest of USA (right)

9 Since we last met...

10 Percent of Average Precipitation Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014

11 Mean Temperature Departure from Normal Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014

12

13 53 Western United States (11 states) Annual Jan-Dec Temperature Red: Individual Years. Blue: 11-year running mean Units: Deg F. Data from NOAA Cooperative Network thru Jan Annual Mean Temperature ( F ) Year Western Regional Climate Center

14 United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

15 thru Feb United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

16 Apr Apr 1-8 Precipitation Percent Temperature Departure (F)

17 Oct 1 - Apr 8 Water Year to Date Oct 1 - Apr 8 Precipitation Percent Temperature Departure (F)

18 Water Year Oct 2010 Thru 30 Sep 2011

19 Water Year Oct 2011 Thru 30 Sep 2012

20 Water Year Oct 2012 Thru 30 Sep 2013

21 Water Year to date 01 Oct 2013 Thru 08 Apr 2014

22

23 Nevada Statewide Temperature Annual Water Year Oct-Sep thru

24 Nevada Statewide Temperature Water Year to Date Oct-Feb thru

25 Nevada Statewide Precipitation Water Year Oct-Sep thru Nevada Climate Tracker

26 Nevada Statewide Precipitation Water Year to Date Oct-Feb thru Nevada Climate Tracker

27 Sierra Nevada Precipitation Water Year Oct-Sep thru California Climate Tracker

28 Sierra Nevada Precipitation Calendar Year to Date Jan-Dec 1895 thru 2013 California Climate Tracker

29 Sierra Nevada Precipitation Water Year to Date Oct-Mar thru California Climate Tracker

30 Calendar Year Precipitation Rank Jan-Dec Thru 2014 Lowest 10 % Record Driest

31 Oct-Mar Precipitation Rank Thru Lowest 10 % Record Driest

32 Overall patterns matter. But so does the way in which climate unfolds through day by day A few example sources. Also, new tools coming on WRCC and CSC pages.

33 365 Day Temperature Departures thru 2014 Apr 8

34 365 Day Temperature Departures thru 2014 Apr 8

35 365 Day Temperature Departures thru 2014 Apr 8

36 365 Day precipitation Departures thru 2014 Apr 8

37 365 Day precipitation Departures thru 2014 Apr 8

38 365 Day precipitation Departures thru 2014 Apr 8

39 Reno Airport NWS Reno

40 Elko Airport NWS Elko

41 Ely Airport NWS Elko

42 Tonopah Airport NWS Elko

43 Select: Lamoille area, Monthly values, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean. Western Regional Climate Center

44 Monthly Freezing Level Near Ruby Mountains, Nevada 1948 thru 2011 or 2012 Apr 2014 (thru 6) May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014

45 California Department of Water Resources

46 California Department of Water Resources

47 Northern Sierra Winter Season Snow Water Content wettest Average Central Sierra driest Southern Sierra Cal DWR

48 Central Sierra Snow Lab Winter Comparisons. NRCS Snotel Station Oct-Sep Oct-Sep Oct-Sep Oct-Apr9

49 Snow Water Content Percent of Average 2014 Apr 9

50 Water Year Precipitation Since 1 October 2013 Percent of Average 2014 Apr 9

51 NWS Precipitation Estimate for March 2014 Courtesy Mark Faucette, Reno NWS

52 March 2014 Precipitation Percent of Normal WRCC West-Wide Drought Tracker March 2014 Precipitation Percentile

53 Oct-Mar Precipitation Percent of Normal WRCC West-Wide Drought Tracker Oct-Mar Precipitation Percentile

54 Courtesy Mark Faucette, Reno NWS

55

56 NWS Seasonal Streamflow Volume Forecast Percent of Normal Updated 2014 April 9

57 What about the Colorado River?

58 Lake Mead, October 2007 Photo by Ken Dewey

59 Lake Powell Storage Through Apr 8, 2014 Currently 39 % full (capacity MAF) Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005

60 Lake Powell Elevation Through May 1, 2013 x 1yr Water level on May 1, 2013 was ft, -126 ft below full. Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full. Source:

61 2014 From: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

62 Ocean Departures from Average Temperature ( C ) 30 Mar - 5 Apr 2014

63 Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures Updated through 2014 Mar 30 - Apr 5 Climate Prediction Center

64 Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. Washington Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. ENSO Arizona Central Sierra

65

66 Temperature & Precipitation Official Outlooks One Month 2014 Three Month Apr Temp Apr Precip Apr-May-Jun T Apr-May-Jun P Orange / Red - Higher likelihood of drier than usual Green - Higher likelihood of wetter than usual NOAA Climate Prediction Center

67 Six experiments in near-term climate forecasting May-Jul Precipitation. NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble). Dynamical Models CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2 CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1 CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2 GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric Research NASA: US National Aeronautics and Space Administration NMME: National Multi- Model Ensemble IMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble 2014 Apr 9

68 Six experiments in near-term climate forecasting May-Jul Temperature. NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble). Dynamical Models CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2 CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1 CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2 GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric Research NASA: US National Aeronautics and Space Administration NMME: National Multi- Model Ensemble IMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble 2014 Apr 9

69 Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard In support of USDA Farm Services Agency and other Drought Activities gbdash.dri.edu

70

71

72 Snotel How to Improve Great Basin Climate Monitoring??? WeatherCoder III RAWS

73 Thank You! Mather RAWS Station Great Basin Nat Park

74 DISCARDS and EXTRAS and ELABORATIONS

75

76

77 Nevada Annual Precipitation Cycle

78 Oct-Mar Apr-May-June Fraction of Annual Total Precipitation, by Season July-Aug

79 Through September 2012 El Nino La Nina NOAA ESRL ( CDC ), Wolter and Timlin

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