PRECIPITATION - PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THIS YEAR'S BREAKUP PROCESS.

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1 1 of 5 4/24/2015 6:17 PM Local Forecasts by City,State,Zip Rivers & Hydrology River conditions Forecasts & Info Quick Briefing 48hr Flood Pot 5-Day Flood Outlook Nat'l AHPS page Precip & Weather Observed Precip Precip Analysis Forecast Precip AK Snow Maps Nat'l Snow Info Wx Forecasts Observations Radar Satellite Data in Google Maps Breakup & Ice Quick Briefing Breakup Map Breakup Summary Ice Maps Freezing DD Thawing DD More... HOME NWS Site Map National News Organization FGAK78 PACR ESFAK AKZALL HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK 2 PM ADT FRI APRIL SPRING BREAKUP OUTLOOK FOR ALASKA... THE SPRING BREAKUP FLOOD POTENTIAL IS RATED AS TO -MODERATE STATEWIDE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON OBSERVED SNOWPACK AND ICE THICKNESS REPORTS AND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. CURRENTLY BREAKUP AT MOST LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DAYS EARLIER THAN NORMAL. ALTHOUGH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS RATED AS... FLOODING CAN STILL OCCUR IF ICE JAMS FORM DOWNSTREAM OF A VILLAGE. TEMPERATURES - TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE PAST FEW DAY WERE ABOVE NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL. THE LONGER RANGE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MAY IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION - PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THIS YEAR'S BREAKUP PROCESS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE AT ICE - APRIL ICE THICKNESS DATA ARE AVAILABLE FOR A LIMITED NUMBER OF OBSERVING SITES IN ALASKA. APRIL 1ST MEASUREMENTS INDICATE THAT ICE THICKNESS IS VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE... WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 60 AND 133 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE TANANA BASIN REPORTED NORMAL THICKNESS. ICE THICKNESS IN SOUTHWESTERN... SOUTHCENTRAL... WESTERN... AND INTERIOR ALASKA ARE NORMAL. ICE THICKNESS LIKELY IS NORMAL IN THE ER YUKON... NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE YUKON AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER YUKON BASIN. ACCUMULATED FREEZING DEGREE DAYS ARE WELL NORMAL Search Enter Search Here

2 2 of 5 4/24/2015 6:17 PM Climate & History River Database Drought Info Predictions Diagnostics Additional Info Related Links Observer forms Newsletter Jokulhlaups More... About the APRFC Contact Us Mission Staff OVER MOST OF ALASKA. SNOW - THE APRIL 1ST SNOWPACK ANALYSIS SHOWED WELL CONDITIONS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH LESS THAN 50% OF NORMAL IN THE KUSKOKWIM BASIN AND THE ER YUKON. THE FAIRBANKS AREA UP TO THE BROOKS RANGE WAS NEAR NORMAL WHILE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK WAS OBSERVED IN MOST OF THE CANADIAN YUKON. WARMER THAN NORMAL APRIL TEMPERATURES HAVE CAUSED THE SNOWPACK AROUND THE STATE TO RIPEN AND BEGIN TO MELT. FOR WEATHER... ICE AND SNOW CONDITIONS... PLEASE REFER TO AND FOR VARIOUS SNOW GRAPH OPTIONS... REFER TO THE APRFC WEB SITE AT OR THE NRCS WEB SITE AT BREAKUP: NORMALLY SPRING BREAKUP IS DYNAMIC AND MOVES FROM THE HEADWATERS OF A RIVER DOWNSTREAM IN A LINEAR FASHION. THE COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL IN WESTERN ALASKA COMBINED WITH THE WARM MARCH AND APRIL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL STATEWIDE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 4-6 WEEKS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A THERMAL BREAKUP FOR RIVERS IN SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A THERMAL BREAKUP OCCURS WHEN THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SNOWMELT TO PUSH ICE DOWNSTREAM AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM UP SLY. IN A THERMAL BREAKUP... EVEN THOUGH ICE STRENGTH DETERIORATES SIGNIFICANTLY... BREAKUP CAN OCCUR LATER THAN NORMAL. ALSO... NO COHERENT BREAKUP FRONT DEVELOPS IN THIS SCENARIO... AND MULTIPLE LOCATIONS MAY BEGIN TO SEE ICE MOVEMENT SIMULTANEOUSLY. ICE JAM FLOODING FROM A THERMAL BREAKUP IS RARELY SERIOUS... BUT STILL POSSIBLE. TIMING OF BREAKUP DURING A THERMAL BREAKUP MIGHT RANGE FROM SEVERAL DAYS EARLIER TO SEVERAL DAYS LATER THAN NORMAL... AND CAN BE INCONSISTENT UP AND DOWN THE RIVER. THE OUTLOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS AND UNLIKELY TO INFLUENCE BREAKUP THIS YEAR. EVEN WITH THIN ICE AND SNOWPACK... A FASTER THAN EXPECTED RISE IN TEMPERATURES OR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COULD PRODUCE RAPID MELT AND HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FS... RESULTING IN ICE JAMS FORMING AND INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING. BREAKUP IS EXPECTED TO BE THERMAL IN SOUTHERN... SOUTHWESTERN... WESTERN... AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE STATE... WITH THERMAL TO DYNAMIC BREAKUP IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS... SPECIFICALLY IN THE UPPER YUKON AREA... AND DYNAMIC ON THE NORTH SLOPE. FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM ICE JAMS WILL BE FOR MOST OF THE STATE... WITH THE UPPER YUKON BEING THE PRIMARY AREA WITH A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE STRETCH FROM EAGLE TO FORT YUKON. AREAS OF CONCERN - LOCATIONS IN THE STATE THAT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY INCLUDE THE UPPER YUKON RIVER FROM EAGLE DOWNSTREAM TO FORT YUKON... KOBUK ON THE KOBUK RIVER... BUCKLAND ON THE BUCKLAND RIVER... KALSKAG ON THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER UPSTREAM OF THE JUMBLED ICE FROM THE FALL BREAKUP... AND THE DALTON HIGHWAY NEAR MILE 400 WHERE THE SAGAVANIRKTOK RIVER HAS BEEN OUT OF BANK NEAR DEADHORSE. BREAKUP FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL...BUT THE

3 3 of 5 4/24/2015 6:17 PM COMBINATION OF SNOWPACK... ICE THICKNESS... AND SUSCEPTIBILITY TO FLOODING CAUSE THESE LOCATIONS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE FLOODING THIS SEASON. THE FOLING TABLE GIVES ESTIMATES FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL... BASIN RUNOFF VOLUMES... BREAKUP DATES ( )... AND AN INITIAL RANGE FOR SPRING BREAKUP ESTIMATES FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS AND BASINS THROUGHOUT THE STATE. SNOWMELT RUNOFF VOLUME...EXPECTED WATER VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT DURING THE MELT SEASON. FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING FROM SNOWMELT AND/OR ICE JAMS. * BREAKUP DATES ARE FOR THE PERIOD 1970 THROUGH 2015 AND ARE CALCULATED FOR LOCATIONS WITH AT LEAST 5 YEARS OF DATA. SNOWMELT FLOOD NO. OF FORECAST RIVER - REACH RUNOFF POTENTIAL BREAKUP YEARS BREAKUP VOLUME DATE * RECORD DATE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE KENAI RIVER ANCHOR RIVER 04/14 10 MATANUSKA RIVER 04/ /18-04/24 SUSITNA RIVER GOLD CREEK 05/ /27-05/03 SUNSHINE 05/ /27-05/03 YENTNA RIVER LAKE CREEK 05/ /26-05/02 SKWENTNA RIVER SKWENTNA 05/ /25-05/02 COPPER RIVER BASIN GAKONA HWY 05/02 25 GULKANA HWY 05/01 24 CHENA RIVER

4 4 of 5 4/24/2015 6:17 PM CHENA LAKES PROJECT FAIRBANKS 04/ /21-04/26 TANANA RIVER NORTHWAY 04/ /22** SALCHA FAIRBANKS 04/ /24-04/30 NENANA 05/ /25-04/29 MANLEY 05/ /29-05/05 KUSKOKWIM RIVER NIKOLAI 04/ /15** MCGRATH 05/ /26-05/03 STONY RIVER 05/ /28-05/04 SLEETMUTE 05/ /28-05/05 RED DEVIL 05/ /30-05/06 CROOKED CREEK 05/ /30-05/06 ANIAK 05/ /30-05/06 KALSKAG 05/ /30-05/06 TULUKSAK 05/ /02-05/08 AKIAK 05/ /03-05/09 KWETHLUK BETHEL 05/ /03-05/09 NAPAKIAK 05/ /05-05/11 YUKON RIVER (UPPER) DAWSON, YT 05/ /30-05/06 EAGLE 05/ /30-05/06 CIRCLE -MOD 05/ /03-05/09 FORT YUKON 05/ /04-05/10 BEAVER 05/ /04-05/10 STEVENS VILLAGE 05/ /05-05/11 RAMPART 05/ /05-05/11 YUKON RIVER (MIDDLE) TANANA 05/ /01-05/07 RUBY 05/ /03-05/09 GALENA 05/ /04-05/10 KOYUKUK 05/13 05/05-05/11 NULATO 05/ /05-05/11 KALTAG 05/ /06-05/12 ANVIK 05/ /07-05/13 YUKON RIVER (ER) HOLY CROSS 05/ /05-05/11 RUSSIAN MISSION 05/ /05-05/11 MARSHALL 05/ /05-05/11 PILOT STATION 05/ /06-05/12

5 5 of 5 4/24/2015 6:17 PM MOUNTAIN VILLAGE 05/ /08-05/14 ALAKANUK/EMMONAK 05/ /12-05/18 KOYUKUK RIVER BETTLES 05/ /01-05/07 ALLAKAKET 05/ /02-05/08 HUGHES 05/ /03-05/09 SEWARD PENINSULA BUCKLAND RIVER BUCKLAND -MOD 05/ /13-5/19 KOBUK RIVER KOBUK -MOD 05/ /05-05/11 SHUNGNAK 05/ /06-05/12 AMBLER 05/ /07-05/13 NOATAK RIVER NOATAK 05/ /17-05/23 BROOKS RANGE - NORTH UMIAT 05/ /21-05/27 COLVILLE 06/ /30-06/05 SAGAVANIRKTOK NR PRUDHOE HIGH* 05/ /21-05/29 *NWS HAS NO RECORD OF ICE JAM RELATED FLOODS FOR THE SAGVANIRKTOK. CONSIDERING CURRENT FLOODING CONDITIONS CAUSED BY AUFEIS... A HIGH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE FLOODING DURING THE SNOWMELT AND RIVER ICE BREAKUP PROCESS. FOR MORE DETAIL AND TO SEE A FLOOD POTENTIAL MAP REFER TO OUR WEB SITE AT THE NEXT SPRING BREAKUP OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED AT 2 PM MONDAY APRIL $$ SDL National Weather Service Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center 6930 Sand Lake Road Anchorage, Ak Contact Us. About Us Career Opportunities Glossary Credits Disclaimer Privacy Policy

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