Climate Observation Data and Tools. Kelly T. Redmond. Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada

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1 Climate Observation Data and Tools Kelly T. Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Western Watersheds and Climate Change Water and Aquatic System Tools Workshop 2009 November 17-19, FL2, Boulder Colorado

2 Types of climate and climate-related information commonly sought Climate statistics ( static descriptions) about a station or area Climate monitoring info, to track variations in climate, variability properties Climate index histories (not direct climate measurements) Time frames: past climate, present or recent climate, future climate Spatial scales: Global to organism scale Measured climate versus proxy climate (T, P versus tree rings, SOI, MEI) Associated environmental measurements: stream temp or flow, chemistry Causative factors leading to observed variations, attribution info Raw (observations) or treated (gridded) data versus interpreted information Research findings, access. ENSO, PDO, Forcings, Decision process, refs & biblio Climate impact information. Direct and indirect effects of climate. No one source can, or does, or will, provide all of these types of information

3 Tools to track climate variations in the western states NOAA Western Regional Climate Center NOAA National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices River Forecast Center NOAA ESRL Interactive web pages (the old CDC, Climate Diagnostics Center) USDA NRCS Water and Climate Center (Portland Oregon) NOAA NOHRSC National Operational Hydromet Remote Sensing Center NOAA Climate Prediction Center NOAA National Climatic Data Center Drought Portal (drought.gov) NOAA RISAs (Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments) State sources

4 WRCC tools to track climate variations in the western states Individual station listings (available for each historical location) (monthly) California Climate Tracker (updated first date of each month) Would be a very good idea to do this for all western states Westmap (updated monthly, but need to keep PRISM operational) National scale RCC ACIS Maps (updated daily) WRCC ACIS maps (expanded set for the West) (updated daily) WRCC Divisional Data Plotter (updated monthly) SPI Visualizer and Data Plotter (updated monthly) CalClim web pages for California (updated daily) Various drought descriptors under development North American Freezing Level Tracker (updated monthly, later daily) ---- In development or needing development Global Reanalysis and North American Regional Reanalysis gridded tools A climate-change compatible PRISM time series, continuously updated Consistent upgrade badly needed Nothing else comes close A number of methodological and administrative issues to address WRCC is willing to take a lead on this Much better information needed on climate forcings for the region Tighter links to attribution

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10 Typical NWS cooperative station. Individual daily listings not available via web. 1. Dealing with demand. 2. Agreement among RCCs 3. Some exceptions (CA, for example) Monthly and annual listings are available. Similar summary info available for all us via

11 HCN-M Historical Climatology Network - Modernized

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13 Projects

14 As of Nov 2009 About 2000 RAWS stations available. (active plus Inactive)

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18 Monthly Tmax to date Monthly Tmin to date

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23 NCDC Climate Divisions

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27 California Drought

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37 Westmap Joint project between U Arizona DRI / WRCC OSU PRISM Grp NOAA NCTP (now TRACS) CLIMAS /WRCC CAP At present is restricted to just the western United States

38 Areas: States Counties Hydrobasins Climate Divisions Grid squares Individual Pixels Uses 4 km PRISM Monthly Data 1895 through the latest month

39 Precipitation. Water Year (Oct-Sep) Thru Mean:

40 Precipitation. Winter (Nov-Apr) Thru Mean:

41 Precipitation. Year-to-date (Jan-Sep) 1895 Thru 2009 Mean:

42 Temperature Annual

43 Maximum Annual Temperature Minimum

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45 Select type of product, set up display parameters, select location for time series or domain for map. ( *** Not quite ready for prime time via web yet, but close *** ) Time Series Monthly Fixed temperature Fixed height Pct precip as snow Daily Fixed temperature Fixed height Maps Monthly / Daily Fixed temperature. Mean / departure Fixed height Mean / departure Product Setup Graph parameters Period / duration Color scheme Absolute vs departure

46 Select: Lake Tahoe area, 12 months ending in Dec, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean.

47 Elevation of Freezing Level over Lake Tahoe. Annual through 2008.

48 Elevation of Freezing Level over Lake Tahoe. Spring thru 2009.

49 Elevation of Freezing Level over Lake Tahoe. Summer thru 2009.

50 Select central Yellowstone National Park.

51 Elevation of Freezing Level over Yellowstone Lake. September thru 2009.

52 Mean Freezing Level Height Departure over North America. September Reference Period

53 Select Upper Colorado River Basin

54 Elevation of Freezing Level over Upper Colorado Basin. March. From NCEP Reanalysis.

55 Elevation of Freezing Level over Upper Colorado River Basin. Spring. From NCEP Reanalysis.

56 Elevation of Freezing Level over Northern Idaho. 365 Days into mid-october Climatology : black line median and blue percentiles.

57 Select: Lake Tahoe area, 12 months ending in Jan, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean.

58 Percent of Cool Season Precipitation Falling with Freezing Level Below 2000 m (6562 ft). Larger fraction implies more precipitation as snow, less as rain. Lake Tahoe NCEP Reanalysis Precipitation and Temperature.

59 Percent of Winter Precipitation Falling with Freezing Level Below 2000 m (6562 ft). Larger fraction implies more precipitation as snow, less as rain. Lake Tahoe NCEP Reanalysis Precipitation and Temperature.

60 Percent of Jan-Mar Precipitation Falling with Freezing Level Below 2000 m (6562 ft). Larger fraction implies more precipitation as snow, less as rain. Lake Tahoe NCEP Reanalysis Precipitation and Temperature.

61 Percent of Spring Precipitation Falling with Freezing Level Below 2000 m (6562 ft). Larger fraction implies more precipitation as snow, less as rain. Lake Tahoe NCEP Reanalysis Precipitation and Temperature.

62 Trend in Annual Freezing Level Height thru meters/decade

63 Trend in January-May Freezing Level Height thru meters/decade

64 Trend in Annual Freezing Level Height thru meters/decade

65 Trend at 1600 m elevation in Precipitation falling with Temperature below freezing , January thru May. Units: percent per decade.

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67 White Mtn Summit, ft Reconfigured July 2004

68 White Mountain Summit Temperature. 14,245 feet. Reconstructed from Global Reanalysis. 99 % of NARR-derived temperatures are within +/- 3 Deg C. Mean Annual Temperature Trend 0.24 C/decade, 30% greater than California Statewide. Trends greatest above 6000 feet. Freezing level In spring: trend ft/decade 52 m/decade Days with Mean Daily Temperature Above Freezing ( 0 C ) John Abatzoglou Kelly Redmond

69 Mt Warren Summit Station 12,327 ft

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72 Precipitation Water Year 2009 Oct 01 Thru Nov 14

73 Precipitation Water Year 2009 Oct 01 Thru Nov 14

74 Precipitation Pct of Ave thru 2009 Nov 14 6-month 12-month 24-month 36-month

75 Temperature Water Year 2009 Oct 01 Nov 14

76 Temperature Last 14 days 2009 Nov 01-14

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78 The World s Warm Oceans

79 Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. Washington Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. ENSO Arizona Central Sierra

80 Sea Surface Temperatures Departure from Average Nov 1-7. NOAA ESRL PSD Map Room

81 National Snow and Ice Data Center

82 Interactive Plotting Analyses 1/3

83 Interactive Plotting Analyses 2/3

84 Interactive Plotting Analyses 3/3

85 Climate Prediction Center. noaa.gov

86 Precipitation CPC 3-Month Outlooks Temperature

87 365 days thru 12 Nov Barrow Temp and Hilo Precip.

88 1 day USA Tmax/Tmin/Departures thru 2009 Nov days

89 National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)

90 NWS Daily Updates and Archives Daily Summaries, F-6, State/Reg Tables

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92 Sep 28, 1999 Sep 26, 2000 Sep 25, 2001 Sep 24, 2002 Sep 30, 2003 Sep 21, 2004

93 Sep 27, 2005 Sep 26, 2006 Sep 25, 2007 Sep 30, 2008 Sep 29, 2009 Nov 10, 2009

94 Monitoring page one of many

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96 NRCS Snotel Program Approximately 750 sites in US Most are hourly to 3 hourly Updated continuously Approx 1980 start for most stations

97 Western Basins Snow Water Content from Snotel Stations Percent of Average 2009 May 02 Above L Powell 83%

98 History of Atmospheric Forcings Warming Hansen et al, Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science, 308, Cooling Radiative Factors that Control Global Climate

99 T (C) Annual Winter Summer IPCC 2007 Late 21st P (%) Agree? Thanks to Phil Mote

100 Average of 19 climate models Figure by Gabriel Vecchi. es/div/ocp/drought/scienc e.shtml R. Seager, M.F. Ting, I.M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez, N. Naik, Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, DOI: /science

101 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States TR Karl, JM Melillo, TC Peterson (eds). Cambridge University Press. 189 pp.

102 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States TR Karl, JM Melillo, TC Peterson (eds). Cambridge University Press. 189 pp.

103 Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn East Central Nevada Projected Temperature Changes ( C ) 15 Models IPCC A1B Early 21 st Middle 21 st Late 21 st John Abatzoglou

104 East Central Nevada Projected Precipitation Changes ( % ) Early 21 st Middle 21 st Late 21 st Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn

105 Thru Dec 2008 NOAA National Climatic Data Center

106 Annual Mean Temperature ( F ) 53 Western United States (11 states) Annual Jan-Dec Temperature Provisional data from NCDC / CPC. Blue: 11-year running mean. Units: Deg F. Data source NOAA cooperative network, thru Dec Year Western Regional Climate Center

107 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual Annual Temperature Trend National Temperature Trend by Season The Last 30 Years

108 (Oct) United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

109 Water Year Precipitation ( inches ) Western United States (11 states) Water Year (Oct-Sep) Precipitation. Provisional data from NCDC / CPC. Blue: 11-year running mean. Units: Inches. Data source NOAA cooperative network, thru Dec End Year Western Regional Climate Center

110 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States TR Karl, JM Melillo, TC Peterson (eds). Cambridge University Press. 189 pp.

111 EOF 1 5 EOF 1 Time Series % Run C. Blue Oak Running Mean: Green - 7 Years, Blue - 15 Years Year

112 Lessons from History. Colorado River Flow. Lees Ferry. Reconstructed 762 thru 2005 A.D. Red: Gauged record. Blue: Reconstructed record. 20-Year moving averages. Meko, D.M., C.A. Woodhouse, C.H. Baisan, T. Knight, J.J. Lukas, M.K. Hughes, and M.W. Salzer, Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River basin. Geophysical Research Letters 34m L10705, doi: /2007GL029988

113 ? Is the current Southwest drought a once-or-twice-a-century drought like those of the past 500 years? or? a harbinger of things to come, a different type of drought that we have not observed before??

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116 Coop stations with long enough record to summarize temperature (~5 years) WRCC Summary Graphics

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118 Updated by John Abatzoglou

119 John Abatzoglou, Kelly Redmond, Laura Edwards. Classification of regional climate variability in the state of California. 2009, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 48(8), DOI: /2009JAMC2062.1

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121 Mean California Statewide Temperature Water Year Thru

122 Maximum Temp California Statewide Water Year Minimum Temp thru

123 Water Year Oct-Sep Precip Sierra Nevada 1895/96 thru 2008/09

124 Water Year Oct-Sep Precip South Coastal California 1895/96 thru 2008/09

125 Sierra Nevada Temperature and Precipitation Oct 2007 Thru Sep 2008 A possible analog for climate change? California Climate Tracker Sierra Nevada 12 Months Ending End of Sep 2009

126 Sierra Nevada Winter Precipitation DJF Thru

127 Sierra Nevada Spring Precipitation MAM 1895 Thru 2009

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135 cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snowsurvey_p/plot_esi

136 June 15, 2009 Snowpack Conditions North Central South

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138 Side note PRISM Monthly Time Series Data Very widely used (including for Westmap) A critical data set for mountain environments In great demand In jeopardy of being lost Spatial Climate Mapping Consortium has been formed Steering and guidance mechanism Short term and long term goals Advocacy group for fine scale surface spatial climate data A needed capability as part of a national climate service See me if interested

139 Concluding notes There is a huge amount of material accessible via the web. Also a huge demand exists for such data and information. Way too much to describe each item or set of web pages. Much of this is useful, even very useful, but still: user beware. Fair amount of overlap in web accessible information, but Differences in style and readability Differences in ability to summarize as desired More info on elements beyond Temp/Precip desired Wind, solar, humidity, etc Would be nice to have a national system for obtaining daily data Gridded versus point data We d like to make use of more gridded data (eg, PRISM) But, each gridded data set needs to be vetted by users Fundamental issue: Need to be able to resolve mountains One-stop or Few-stop Shopping frequently requested Climate portal often discussed So much exists, changing so fast, can only partially achieve this goal

140 Bishop Creek, CA Thank You

141 Discards