How To Know If You Can Get A Job In The United States

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "How To Know If You Can Get A Job In The United States"

April Hunt
3 years ago
Views:

1 Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts September 1 Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Investor Relations Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed to be reliable. This information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representations about accuracy, completeness or reliability. Any opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.

2 Monthly Highlights / Commentary August Employment Report Settles Nothing For A Data Dependent FOMC Anyone who had depended on the August employment report to settle anything for a data dependent FOMC will have been disappointed by what they saw. Historically, the August employment data have suffered from measurement and seasonal adjustment issues, meaning the initial estimates have been prone to large revision. In addition to a marked deceleration in the pace of job growth, this year s August employment report contains some troubling details. These include a pullback in the breadth of hiring across private sector industries, a decline in hours worked that was disturbingly broad based across industry groups, and only a paltry increase in hourly earnings. Moreover, the broadest measure of labor market slack has barely budged thus far in 1 and remains significantly elevated. Time will tell whether the weak August employment report is more a reflection of noise in the data or whether there is genuine cause for concern. But, the last monthly employment report the FOMC will see prior to this month s meeting is hardly a compelling case for a hike in the Fed funds rate. The August employment report followed data showing a sharp decline in motor vehicle sales in August and a reading from the ISM s Manufacturing Index showing the factory sector slipped back into contraction in August. All in all, the most recent data points are unlikely to compel many, if any, FOMC members to think sooner rather than later is the way to go, particularly with inflation still low and showing no signs of breaking to the upside any time soon.

3 ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL DATA HIGHLIGHTS September 1 Indicator: Last Observation: Reported As: Value: % Change Year Ago, or Year Ago Value: Real GDP Q 1 ( nd est.) Annualized % change 1.1% 1.% Payroll Employment August 1 Monthly change, thousands of jobs % Private Sector Employment August 1 Monthly change, thousands of jobs % Unemployment Rate August 1 % of labor force.9% 5.1% U Unemployment/Underemployment August 1 % of labor force 9.7% 1.% Unemployed 7 Weeks or More August 1 Millions of people..19 Aggregate Private Sector Earnings August 1 Monthly % change <.7%).7% Real Personal Disposable Income July 1 Monthly % change.%.75% Real Personal Disposable Income ex Transfers July 1 Monthly % change.5%.1% Real Personal Consumption Expenditures July 1 Monthly % change.%.99% Personal Savings Rate July 1 % of disposable personal income 5.7% 5.% Consumer Price Index Total July 1 Monthly % change <.%>.% Consumer Price Index Core July 1 Monthly % change.9%.% Producer Price Index Final Demand July 1 Monthly % change <.%> <.1%> Producer Price Index Core Final Demand July 1 Monthly % change <.7%>.7% Single Family Housing Starts July 1 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 77, 7, Multi Family Housing Starts July 1 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1, 7, Single Family Housing Permits July 1 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 711, 77, Multi Family Housing Permits July 1 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1, 5, Industrial Production July 1 Monthly % change.7% <.5%> ISM Manufacturing Index August 1 Index value, % 9.% 51.% ISM New Manufacturing Orders Index August 1 Index value, % 9.1% 51.7% ISM Non Manufacturing Index August 1 Index value, % 51.% 5.% ISM New Non Manufacturing Orders Index August 1 Index Value, % 51.%.% Federal Funds Target Range September, 1 Percent.5.5%..5% One Month LIBOR Rate September, 1 Percent.5%.% Month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield September, 1 Percent.%.% Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield September, 1 Percent.%.7% 1 Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield September, 1 Percent 1.1%.% Dollar Euro Exchange Rate September, 1 Euros per U.S. dollar.9.97 Dollar Yen Exchange Rate September, 1 Yen per U.S. dollar Federal Reserve Broad U.S. Dollar Index August, 1 Index value, 1997 =

4 Real GDP Annualized Percentage Change 5. Contribution To Real GDP Growth PCE Bus. Fixed Investment Inventories Net Exports Government. percentage points Q '15 Q '15 Q '15 Q1 '1 Q ' Total Payroll Employment monthly change, seasonally adjusted, thousands (L) 1-month change, not seasonally adjusted, millions (R) Unemployment Rate, % U (unemployment/underemployment) U (unemployment)

5 Civilian Labor Force 7 labor force participation rate (%) employment-to-population ratio, % Long-Term Unemployed Unemployed for 7 Weeks or Longer, Millions of People Consumers Assessment of Labor Market Conditions - Spread between jobs plentiful and "jobs hard to get", inverse scale (L) -5 Unemployment rate, % (R) Private Sector Hiring Diffusion Index -month moving averages Net % of private sector industries hiring compared to: one month ago six months ago

6 - - - Real Disposable Personal Income % change year ago Total Excluding transfers Personal Spending, Saving Personal consumption expenditures, % change year ago Personal saving rate, % of disposable personal income Real Consumer Spending % change year ago durable goods nondurable goods services Total Household Debt % of disposable personal income excluding transfer payments % of disposable personal income

7 1.5 Household Financial Obligations Ratio % of disposable income Household Debt Outstanding quarterly change, $ billion mortgage consumer credit Present Conditions Consumer Confidence Index 195 = 1 Expectations Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization All Sectors Capacity utilization rate, % (R) Industrial production, % change year ago (L)

8 total index ISM Manufacturing Index diffusion index, net percentage new orders Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Manufacturing Sector Capacity utilization rate, % (R) Industrial production, % change year ago (L) , 1, 1, 1, 1, Housing Permits ( s of units) annual rates, six-month moving average Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R) , 1, 1, 1, 1, Housing Starts ( s of units) annual rates, six-month moving average Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R)

9 7,5 7,,5, 5,5 5,,5, Home Sales ( s of units) not seasonally adjusted, 1-month moving sum Existing Homes (L) New Homes (R), ,5 1,5 1,15 1, ,, 55, 5, 5,, 5,, 5,, 15, 1, 5, Foreclosure Starts United States number of loans Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States , 5,, Foreclosure Starts Regions Footprint number of loans Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States 1 1 Index of House Prices % change year ago FHFA - Purchase Only Core Logic 175, 15, 15, 1, - 75, - 5, 5,

10 5 Median Home Prices $ thousands,5 Existing Home Inventories Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R) 1 75 New Homes Existing Homes,, ,,5, 1, , New Home Inventories Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R) CoreLogic Loan Performance Data United States REO Inventory, ths (L) 9+day delinquency rate, % (R)

11 Survey of Senior Lending Officers C&I Loans net % of banks reporting rising loan demand from: large/medium firms small firms Survey of Senior Lending Officers Prime Mortgages net % of banks reporting: stronger loan demand tighter lending standards Bank Charge-Off Rates By Loan Type, % HELOC Mortgage Credit Cards Other Consumer Loans Producer Price Index % change year ago Total Core

12 5 1-1 Consumer Price Index % change year ago Total Core WTI Crude Oil, Retail Gasoline Prices WTI, $ per bbl (L) gasoline, $ per gallon (R) Selected Interest Rates, % weekly data 1-year Treasury AAA Corporate Bond -year Fixed Rate Mortgage Spread Between Yields On 1-year and -year Treasury Notes. weekly data

13 TED Spread spread between -month LIBOR and -month T-bill, % Japanese Yen per U.S. Dollar weekly data Chinese Yuan per U.S. Dollar weekly data Euros per U.S. Dollar weekly data

Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts

Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts September 15 Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Strategic and Corporate Planning Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized