07 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "07 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow"

Transcription

1 7 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow Gas prices 15 percent jump in six months may be painful at the pump but is moderate by historical measures and not enough to derail the economic expansion. Geopolitical crises have been a part of the American energy story since the mid-197s. Forty years after the crisis that touched off a severe recession and contributed to a developing inflation spiral, recent global events appear to be pushing energy prices higher again. Fortunately, the increases so far have been moderate by historical standards and are unlikely to derail the five-year-old economic expansion, in our view. The recent rise in energy prices crude oil and gasoline in particular began in November 213. That s the time that normal seasonal demand tends to push prices higher; it s also around the time that protests and violence in the Ukraine appeared to be headed for significant escalation. Between November and May 214, average retail gasoline prices in the U.S. jumped about 15 percent, with crude oil posting a similar rise. Just as tensions in the region began to ease, renewed sectarian fighting inside Iraq began pushing prices higher still. From a slightly longer perspective (the past three and a half years, since the beginning of 211), however, both crude oil prices and gasoline prices have remained range-bound, with crude moving between $8 and $11 per barrel and gasoline fluctuating between $3. and $4. per gallon (Chart 1). True, in general rising energy prices are an unwelcome development CHART 1. ENERGY PRICES HAVE RISEN RECENTLY BUT REMAIN RANGEBOUND Retail gasoline price (all grades, average, dollars per gal., left scale) Crude oil price (dollars per barrel, right scale) Source: Energy Information Administration. aier.org AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1

2 and viewed as a threat to the health of the economy. However, these increases to date are not great enough to cause consumer spending to retrench significantly, harming the broader economy. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Our Business-Cycle Conditions indicators pulled back in the latest month, following three consecutive increases. The share of leading indicators that expanded in June dropped to 82 percent, down 8 percentage points from a reading of 9 percent in May. Our cyclical score for the leading indicators, derived from a separate mathematical analysis, rose just one percentage point to 88 from 87 in the prior month. Despite the decline in the leaders diffusion index, both measures still register values well above, suggesting that the economic outlook remains positive, with a very low probability of recession in the coming quarters. Key takeaways from the latest readings of AIER s BCC indicators include: Leading: Among the 12 leading indicators, eight were judged as clearly expanding in June, one was deemed probably expanding, one was considered indeterminate i.e., having no discernable trend and two were clearly contracting. Among those eight indicators that were clearly expanding, six hit new cycle highs: M1 money supply, yield curve index, new orders for core capital goods, index of common stock prices, average workweek in manufacturing, and initial claims for state unemployment insurance (inverted). The ratio of manufacturing and trade sales to inventories and vendor performance were the two indicators that were contracting, while the new housing permits was the one with no discernable trend. Coincident: All six of our coincident indicators continued to expand in June, resulting in a perfect reading for the 3th month in a row, confirming that the U.S. economy continues to expand. Two of these indicators CHART 2. THE INDICATORS AT A GLANCE PERCENTAGE OF AIER LEADERS EXPANDING PERCENTAGE OF AIER COINCIDERS EXPANDING PERCENTAGE OF AIER LAGGERS EXPANDING CYCLICAL SCORE OF AIER LEADERS Source: AIER. also hit new cycle highs: nonagricultural employment and index of industrial production. Lagging: AIER s index of lagging indicators registered a perfect percent reading again in June as four out of four indicators with a trend were clearly expanding, and all four hit new cycle highs. These four indicators are: average duration of unemployment, manufacturing and trade inventories, commercial and industrial loans, and the ratio Shaded bars represent official recessions. A score above indicates expansion BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS JULY 214

3 of consumer debt to income. The composite of short-term interest rates and change in labor costs per unit of output for manufacturing both were indeterminate last month. In aggregate: Nineteen of our 24 indicators were judged to be clearly expanding or probably expanding last month, with 12 of the expanding 19 hitting new cycle highs. Three indicators were considered to have no discernable trend, while two indicators were clearly contracting. Overall, our three diffusion indexes remained well above percent, pointing to continued economic growth in the months ahead (Chart 2). ENERGY FUNDAMENTALS Stepping back from geopolitical events and normal seasonal patterns, the fundamentals for both crude oil and gasoline indicate prices are likely to remain range-bound. Inventory levels for gasoline are currently 219 million barrels, approximately the 68th percentile of the range since 199. Inventory of crude petroleum, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve, are even more robust at 1.1 billion barrels, or roughly the 92nd percentile of its range since 199 (Chart 3). In addition to the high levels of inventory currently in place, growth of refinery output and crude oil extraction both have accelerated in recent months, to 4.8 percent and 16.1 percent on a year-overyear basis, respectively (Chart 4). IMPACT ON ECONOMY Higher energy prices can redirect consumer spending away CHART 3. GAS AND CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ARE HEALTHY Gasoline inventories (mil. barrels, left scale) Crude oil inventories (mil. barrels, right scale) Source:Energy Information Administration. CHART 4. US REFINERY OUTPUT AND CRUDE EXTRACTION ARE RISING Source:Federal Reserve. Crude extraction (y/y percent change) Refinery output (y/y percent change) from other goods and services, and to the extent that money flows outside the domestic economy to foreign suppliers, higher energy prices are bad for the growth outlook. In the current environment where U.S. economic growth is already viewed by most analysts as weak, the potential of rising energy prices should not be ignored. However, once again, it s important to put the potential impact in perspective. Since the beginning of 211, the U.S. economy has added 7.6 million new jobs, or about 19, per month. When combined with increases in hours worked and with rising hourly earnings, the total additional wages and salaries added to the economy is about $8 billion, or about $2 billion per month at an annual rate. By contrast, consumer spending on gasoline has increased just $ billion, or about $.6 billion per aier.org AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH 3

4 month. So from the perspective of the broader economy, gains in jobs, hours worked, and hourly earnings collectively provide far more impetus to the expansion than the modest gasoline price increases exert drag (Chart 5). For the consumer, the impact of rising gasoline prices may be more psychological than financial. As consumers benefit from better job creation, longer hours, and rising wages, spending on gasoline as a percentage of total personal income declines. In addition, as consumers replace older cars with more fuel efficient vehicles, the share of fuel in household budgets declines, further protecting the economy from fuel price rises. For much of 211, spending on gasoline accounted for about 2.8 percent of total personal income. As of April 214, gasoline expenditures accounted for about 2.5 percent. Likewise, when measured against total consumer spending, gasoline expenditures have fallen from about 3.5 percent of total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) to roughly 3.1 percent as of April. Retailers are usually the group most concerned by the prospect of rising gasoline prices, which divert consumer spending away from other purchases. While the fear is understandable intuitively, there actually is little statistical evidence to support that fear. Since 1992, retail sales excluding gasoline sales and retail sales of gasoline have been positively correlated meaning that retail sales excluding gasoline tend to rise along with rising gasoline sales. Only during some subperiods of extreme gasoline price CHART 5. WAGE AND SALARY GAINS FAR EXCEED GAS EXPENDITURES Change in gasoline expenditures ($bil., inverted) Change in wages & salaries ($bil.) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHART 6. GASOLINE SALES TEND TO BE POSITIVELY CORRELATED WITH RETAIL SALES Source: Census Bureau. Retail sales of gasoline (y/y percent change, left scale) Totla retail sales ex. gasoline (y/y percent change, right scale) increases have non-gasoline retail sales appeared to suffer (Chart 6). CONCLUSION Rising gas prices are a concern for anyone who fills a gas tank and particularly for anyone who lived through the 197s oil embargo, long lines and rationing at gas stations, spiraling inflation, and recession. Economists and policymakers also are rightly concerned about the potential for a repeat of those events. But so far, our business cycle indicators suggest continued economic growth ahead, and energy fundamentals broadly remain supportive of continued range-bound energy prices. n 4 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS JULY 214

5 APPENDIX. PRIMARY LEADING INDICATORS M1 Money Supply (1) (constant dollars, billions) Ratio of Manufacturing and Trade Sales to Inventories (3) Yield Curve Index (1) (cumulative total) Vendor Performance: Slower Deliveries Diffusion Index (2) (%) Index of Manufacturers Supply Prices (2) (%) Index of Common Stock Prices (2) (constant purchasing power) New Orders for Consumer Goods (3) (constant dollars, billions) Average Workweek in Manufacturing (3) (hours) New Orders for Core Capital Goods (4) (constant dollars, billions) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (3) (s, inverted) New Housing Permits (3) (thousands) 3-Month Percent Change in Consumer Debt (4) Sources for all charts on page 5 and 6: Federal Reserve Board, Institute for Supply Management, Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Conference Board, Standard & Poor s, Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics, AIER. aier.org AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH 5

6 APPENDIX. PRIMARY ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Nonagricultural Employment (1)(millions) Manufacturing and Trade Sales (2)(constant dollars, billions) Index of Industrial Production (1)(27 = ) Civilian Employment as a % of the Working-Age Population (2) Personal Income Less Transfer Payments (1)(constant $, billions) Gross Domestic Product (1)(quarterly, constant dollars, billions) APPENDIX. PRIMARY LAGGING INDICATORS Average Duration of Unemployment (2)(weeks, inverted) Ratio of Consumer Debt to Personal Income (1)(percent) Manufacturing and Trade Inventories (1)(constant dollars, billions) % Chg. from a Year Earlier in Mfg. Labor Cost per Unit of Output (2) Commercial and Industrial Loans (1)(constant dollars, billions) Composite of Short-Term Interest Rates (1)(percent) 6 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS JULY 214 Business-Cycle Conditions is published by American Institute for Economic Research, a nonprofit, scientific, educational, and charitable or ganization. To contact AIER by mail, write to: American Institute for Economic Research PO Box Great Barrington, MA 123 Call: Facebook: facebook.com/ AmericanInstituteForEconomicResearch Twitter: twitter.com/aier LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/americaninstitute-for-economic-research For more information or to donate, visit:

The President s Report to the Board of Directors

The President s Report to the Board of Directors The President s Report to the Board of Directors May 5, 2015 CURRENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS - May 5, 2015 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show that economic growth continued to slow in

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

Strategy Document 1/03

Strategy Document 1/03 Strategy Document / Monetary policy in the period 5 March to 5 June Discussed by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 February. Approved by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 March Background Norges

More information

by Robert Kleine Review

by Robert Kleine Review TEE MICHIGAN ECONOMY--ON THE BRINK OF A RECESSION? by Robert Kleine Review For the last two and one-half years, the U.S. economy has expanded at a moderate rate compared with the rapid expansion in 1983

More information

HARD TIMES A Macroeconomic Analysis Presented To: The Financial Advisor Symposium

HARD TIMES A Macroeconomic Analysis Presented To: The Financial Advisor Symposium HARD TIMES A Macroeconomic Analysis Presented To: The Financial Advisor Symposium April 16, 2008 1250 S. Capital of Texas Highway Building 3, Suite 600 Austin, Texas 78746-6443 512-327-7200 Fax 512-327-8646

More information

National Economic Indicators. September 28, 2015

National Economic Indicators. September 28, 2015 National Economic Indicators September 8, Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Decomposition of Real

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow

More information

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report February 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Crude Oil Prices: The North Sea Brent front month futures price settled at $34.46/b on February 4 $2.76 per barrel (b) below

More information

HW 2 Macroeconomics 102 Due on 06/12

HW 2 Macroeconomics 102 Due on 06/12 HW 2 Macroeconomics 102 Due on 06/12 1.What are the three important macroeconomic goals about which most economists, and society at large, agree? a. economic growth, full employment, and low interest rates

More information

Impact of the recession

Impact of the recession Regional Trends 43 21/11 Impact of the recession By Cecilia Campos, Alistair Dent, Robert Fry and Alice Reid, Office for National Statistics Abstract This report looks at the impact that the most recent

More information

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook US Economic Outlook How long will the ride last? December 2014 ihs.com Douglas Handler, IHS Chief US Economist, +1 781 301 9283, doug.handler@ihs.com US Economic Overview 2 Executive

More information

Fixed Income Market Comments

Fixed Income Market Comments Strategy Fixed Income Weekly Fixed Income Market Comments Yields moved higher last week as the final reading of second quarter economic growth (GDP) was higher than expected at 3.9% (forecast at 3.7%)

More information

Unemployment and Inflation

Unemployment and Inflation Unemployment and Inflation Unemployment Inflation Costs of Unemployment Personal Cost Loss of income Loss of self-esteem Increase in stress related psychological problems Increase in incidence of crime,

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation 02 NOVEMBER 201 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-777-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp Overview The Bank of

More information

Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts

Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts September 15 Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Strategic and Corporate Planning Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized

More information

Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS:

Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS: June, Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT 7 8 9 5 United States Real GDP $ billions (fourth quarter) $,996 $,575 $,5 $,9 $5, $5,5 $5,9 $6,5 $7, % change over the four quarters.9% -.8% -.%.8%.%.%.6%.5%.8%

More information

LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS APRIL 2014 LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS Most economists talk about where the economy is headed it s what they do. Paying attention to economic indicators can give you an idea of

More information

Estimated U.S. household energy costs as percentage of after tax income

Estimated U.S. household energy costs as percentage of after tax income Energy Cost Impacts on American Families Rising electricity prices and declining family incomes are straining the budgets of America s lower- and middle-income families. U.S. households with pre-tax annual

More information

When someone asks, How s the economy. A New Look at Economic Indexes for the States in the Third District. Theodore M. Crone*

When someone asks, How s the economy. A New Look at Economic Indexes for the States in the Third District. Theodore M. Crone* A New Look at Economic Indexes for the States in the Third District Theodore M. Crone A New Look at Economic Indexes For the States in the Third District *Ted Crone is a vice president in the Research

More information

FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN

FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN VOLUME 38 May 1952 NUMBER 5 Business expenditures for new plant and equipment and for inventory reached a new record level in 1951 together, they exceeded the previous year's total

More information

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014 Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

More information

NFIB SMALL BUSINESS. William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS

NFIB SMALL BUSINESS. William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade December 21 Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS Seasonally Change From

More information

A summary of regional and national economic indicators for the Tenth District states SUMMARY OF CURRENT TENTH DISTRICT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

A summary of regional and national economic indicators for the Tenth District states SUMMARY OF CURRENT TENTH DISTRICT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Tenth THE District ECONOMIC DATABOOK A summary of regional and national economic indicators for the states APRIL 18, 216 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of KANSAS CITY SUMMARY OF CURRENT TENTH DISTRICT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

More information

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S.

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S. CENTER FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST O U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate ver the past few years, U.S. economic activity has remained

More information

On March 11, 2010, President Barack

On March 11, 2010, President Barack U.S. Department of Commerce International Trade Administration Introduction Exports Support American Jobs Updated measure will quantify progress as global economy recovers. On March 11, 21, President Barack

More information

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5.1 Comparison with the Previous Macroeconomic Scenario The differences between the macroeconomic scenarios of the current

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics June 2 (April 2 data) Highlights During April, credit unions picked up 3, new memberships, credit union loan balances grew at an annualized 1.7% pace,

More information

Monthly Economic Dashboard

Monthly Economic Dashboard RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves

More information

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report

More information

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The

More information

The U.S. Economy after September 11. 1. pushing us from sluggish growth to an outright contraction. b and there s a lot of uncertainty.

The U.S. Economy after September 11. 1. pushing us from sluggish growth to an outright contraction. b and there s a lot of uncertainty. Presentation to the University of Washington Business School For delivery November 15, 2001 at approximately 8:05 AM Pacific Standard Time (11:05 AM Eastern) By Robert T. Parry, President and CEO of the

More information

Investment Symposium March 14-15, 2013 New York, NY. Session E5, U.S. Economic Conditions and the Housing/Mortgage Market

Investment Symposium March 14-15, 2013 New York, NY. Session E5, U.S. Economic Conditions and the Housing/Mortgage Market Investment Symposium March 1-15, 213 New York, NY Session E5, U.S. Economic Conditions and the Housing/Mortgage Market Moderator: Jonathan Glowacki Presenter: David Berson Housing & Mortgage Market Outlook

More information

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE December 2013 Michael Allen, Chair Associate Commissioner for Tax Policy James Breece University of Maine System Melissa Gott State Budget Officer

More information

Lecture 4: The Aftermath of the Crisis

Lecture 4: The Aftermath of the Crisis Lecture 4: The Aftermath of the Crisis 2 The Fed s Efforts to Restore Financial Stability A financial panic in fall 2008 threatened the stability of the global financial system. In its lender-of-last-resort

More information

How To Understand The Unemployment Rate

How To Understand The Unemployment Rate 13.1 Unemployment Objectives Distinguish among four types of unemployment. Discuss the unemployment rate, and describe how it differs over time and across groups. Explain who is eligible for unemployment

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Jun 20, 2014 MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Improving Job Market, Weak Housing Market, Lower Mortgage Originations MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: June 2014 Key highlights

More information

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009 CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Percent 70 The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009 60 50 Before-Tax Income Federal Taxes Top 1 Percent 40 30 20 81st

More information

Brain J. Dunn, CEO Richfield, Minnesota U.S Latest fiscal year: 2010 Best Buy is an American retailer that sells a wide variety of electronic

Brain J. Dunn, CEO Richfield, Minnesota U.S Latest fiscal year: 2010 Best Buy is an American retailer that sells a wide variety of electronic Current Shareholders in Best Buy should hold their stock until price increases, and new investors should not invest if looking for fast money, Best Buy s stock may not more until more economic growth occurs.

More information

Think About Energy Summit

Think About Energy Summit Think About Energy Summit Richard Wobbekind Senior Associate Dean Executive Director Business Research Division Leeds School of Business Mining GDP, Employment, and Wages Share of Colorado Economy GDP

More information

Historically, employment in financial

Historically, employment in financial Employment in financial activities: double billed by housing and financial crises The housing market crash, followed by the financial crisis of the 2007-09 recession, helped depress financial activities

More information

Predicting the US Real GDP Growth Using Yield Spread of Corporate Bonds

Predicting the US Real GDP Growth Using Yield Spread of Corporate Bonds International Department Working Paper Series 00-E-3 Predicting the US Real GDP Growth Using Yield Spread of Corporate Bonds Yoshihito SAITO yoshihito.saitou@boj.or.jp Yoko TAKEDA youko.takeda@boj.or.jp

More information

Falling Oil Prices and US Economic Activity: Implications for the Future

Falling Oil Prices and US Economic Activity: Implications for the Future Date Issue Brief # I S S U E B R I E F Falling Oil Prices and US Economic Activity: Implications for the Future Stephen P.A. Brown December 2014 Issue Brief 14-06 Resources for the Future Resources for

More information

Chapter 12: Gross Domestic Product and Growth Section 1

Chapter 12: Gross Domestic Product and Growth Section 1 Chapter 12: Gross Domestic Product and Growth Section 1 Key Terms national income accounting: a system economists use to collect and organize macroeconomic statistics on production, income, investment,

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics May 216 (March 216 Data) Highlights During March, credit unions picked-up 577, in new memberships, loan and savings balances grew at a % and 7.6%

More information

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities January U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities As we enter 2015, the U.S. economy and housing markets are prepared for a robust start. Unlike one year ago,

More information

Capital Markets Review

Capital Markets Review Capital Markets Review Second Quarter Capital Markets Review Consumer Data Consumer Delinquencies: down from previously reported US Personal Savings Rate: down from previously reported Consumer Credit:

More information

Residential Heating Oil Prices: What Consumers Should know

Residential Heating Oil Prices: What Consumers Should know Residential Heating Oil Prices: What Consumers Should know Introduction Heating oil is a petroleum product used by many Americans to heat their homes. Historically, heating oil prices have fluctuated from

More information

Contents. Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4. General economic environment 5. Market conditions and the economy 6. Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11

Contents. Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4. General economic environment 5. Market conditions and the economy 6. Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11 The Deloitte CFO Survey 2014 Q4 Results 2 Contents Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4 General economic environment 5 Market conditions and the economy 6 Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11 A note on methodology

More information

If Some Dare Call It Treason, Was Milton Friedman a Traitor?

If Some Dare Call It Treason, Was Milton Friedman a Traitor? N O R T H E R N T R U S T G L O B A L E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H If Some Dare Call It Treason, Was Milton Friedman a Traitor? September 211 Paul L. Kasriel, Chief Economist PH: 312.444.4145 4 4 plk1@ntrs.com

More information

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms Rick Mattoon Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Right Place Supply Chain Management Conference

More information

The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production: An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States

The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production: An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States August 2014 The Economic Benefits of Oil and Natural Gas Production: An Analysis of Effects on the United States and Major Energy Producing States THE PERRYMAN GROUP 510 N. Valley Mills Dr. Suite 300 Waco,

More information

U.S. Economic Health Tracker September 2014

U.S. Economic Health Tracker September 2014 A D&B Monthly Briefing U.S. Economic Health Tracker September 2014 Presented by Paul Ballew, D&B Chief Data & Analytics Officer and Chief Economist Tuesday, September 2, 2014 11:30 AM ET Executive Summary

More information

Opportunity in High Yield Bonds

Opportunity in High Yield Bonds Research Opportunity in High Yield Bonds 2016 Q1 Quarterly Commentary Weyland Capital Management LLC - 22 Deer Street - Portsmouth, New Hampshire 03801 p. 603.433.8994 www.weyland.com This document reflects

More information

OBSERVATION. TD Economics SCHOOL S OUT SOFTER TREND IN U.S. HIGHER-ED ENROLLMENT TO PERSIST

OBSERVATION. TD Economics SCHOOL S OUT SOFTER TREND IN U.S. HIGHER-ED ENROLLMENT TO PERSIST OBSERVATION TD Economics SCHOOL S OUT SOFTER TREND IN U.S. HIGHER-ED ENROLLMENT TO PERSIST Highlights Student debt currently sits at $966 billion. This is the second largest outstanding liability on the

More information

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Empire State Manufacturing Survey November 215 Empire State Manufacturing Survey The November 215 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for a fourth consecutive month for New York manufacturers. The

More information

US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators February 4, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites

More information

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Empire State Manufacturing Survey May 15 Empire State Manufacturing Survey The May 15 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business conditions improved slightly for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions

More information

The following reports were prepared independent of the

The following reports were prepared independent of the september 2012 173 APPENDIX H Independent Analysis of Economic Forecasts and Sales Tax Revenue The following reports were prepared independent of the Wake County Transit Plan, but are included here for

More information

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University

More information

Increasing farm debt amid decreasing interest rates: An explanation

Increasing farm debt amid decreasing interest rates: An explanation Increasing farm debt amid decreasing interest rates: An explanation Compiled by Economic Research Division DIRECTORATE: ECONOMIC SERVICES December 2010 agriculture, forestry & fisheries Department: Agriculture,

More information

Chapter Two FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Chapter Two FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS Chapter Two FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1. Introduction In Chapter One we discussed the concept of risk and the importance of protecting a portfolio from losses. Managing your investment risk should

More information

PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission

PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission Summary As of September 14, retail regular-grade gasoline prices in California increased

More information

Agenda. Business Cycles. What Is a Business Cycle? What Is a Business Cycle? What is a Business Cycle? Business Cycle Facts.

Agenda. Business Cycles. What Is a Business Cycle? What Is a Business Cycle? What is a Business Cycle? Business Cycle Facts. Agenda What is a Business Cycle? Business Cycles.. 11-1 11-2 Business cycles are the short-run fluctuations in aggregate economic activity around its long-run growth path. Y Time 11-3 11-4 1 Components

More information

Economic Review, April 2012

Economic Review, April 2012 Economic Review, April 2012 Author Name(s): Malindi Myers, Office for National Statistics Abstract This note provides some wider economic analysis to support the Statistical Bulletin relating to the latest

More information

The Recession of 2007 2009

The Recession of 2007 2009 The Recession of 2007 2009 February 2012 A general slowdown in economic activity, a downturn in the business cycle, a reduction in the amount of goods and services produced and sold these are all characteristics

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics May 215 (March 215 data) Highlights During March, credit unions picked up 496, new memberships, credit union loan balances grew at an annualized pace,

More information

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information September 7, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the General interest rate for September

More information

New York State Employment Trends

New York State Employment Trends New York State Employment Trends August 2015 Thomas P. DiNapoli New York State Comptroller Prepared by the Office of Budget and Policy Analysis Additional copies of this report may be obtained from: Office

More information

Fort McPherson. Atlanta, GA MSA. Drivers of Economic Growth February 2014. Prepared By: chmuraecon.com

Fort McPherson. Atlanta, GA MSA. Drivers of Economic Growth February 2014. Prepared By: chmuraecon.com Fort McPherson Atlanta, GA MSA Drivers of Economic Growth February 2014 Diversified and fast-growing economies are more stable and are less sensitive to external economic shocks. This report examines recent

More information

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS BUSINESS ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION To determine a proper price for a firm s stock, security analyst must forecast the dividend & earnings that can be expected

More information

Under the assumptions used by the Bureau

Under the assumptions used by the Bureau The U.S. Economy Employment outlook: 2004-14 The U.S. economy to 2014 The economy is expected to expand at a steady pace over the coming decade, while inflation will remain restrained and productivity

More information

GE Capital. Industry Research Update Truck Transportation. Key Developments. Industry Fundamentals

GE Capital. Industry Research Update Truck Transportation. Key Developments. Industry Fundamentals Industry Research Update Truck Transportation Key Developments According to the advance estimate from the U.S. Commerce Department, annualized GDP growth during the 3 rd quarter of 2015 grew at a modest

More information

Trends in portfolio management

Trends in portfolio management Trends in portfolio management An Experian white paper credit strategies Market Insight from Experian Page 1 Executive summary The economy is slowly accelerating, although economists, government officials

More information

Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: Fall 2015

Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: Fall 2015 Catalogue no. 11-626-X No. 053 ISSN 1927-503X ISBN 978-0-660-03734-9 Economic Insights Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: Fall 2015 by Guy Gellatly Release date: November 12, 2015 How to obtain

More information

The following text represents the notes on which Mr. Parry based his remarks. 1998: Issues in Monetary Policymaking

The following text represents the notes on which Mr. Parry based his remarks. 1998: Issues in Monetary Policymaking Phoenix Society of Financial Analysts and Arizona State University Business School ASU, Memorial Union - Ventana Room April 24, 1998, 12:30 PM Robert T. Parry, President, FRBSF The following text represents

More information

18 ECB STYLISED FACTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

18 ECB STYLISED FACTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE Box 1 STYLISED FACTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE Over the past three decades, the growth rates of MFI loans to the private sector and the narrow monetary aggregate M1 have displayed relatively

More information

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%

More information

When Will the U.S. Job Market Recover?

When Will the U.S. Job Market Recover? March 2012 In this newsletter, we focus on the U.S. job market. The economic recovery post-2008 is often referred to as a "jobless recovery" given the persistently high unemployment rate. In this paper

More information

www.coastalsecuri es.com 1 800 489 3232

www.coastalsecuri es.com 1 800 489 3232 WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY WEEK OF OCTOBER 30, 2015 The Federal Reserve s policy meeting caused a bit of a stir in the financial markets this week. To be sure, no one expected the Fed to take any overt

More information

The impact of the falling yen on U.S. import prices

The impact of the falling yen on U.S. import prices APRIL 2014 VOLUME 3 / NUMBER 7 GLOBAL ECONOMY The impact of the falling yen on U.S. import prices By David Mead and Sharon Royales In the fall of 2012, Japan set forth economic policies aimed at turning

More information

Economic Outlook 2009/2010

Economic Outlook 2009/2010 Economic Outlook 29/21 s Twenty-Eighth Annual Forecast Luncheon Paul R. Portney Dean, Professor of Economics, and Halle Chair in Leadership Marshall J. Vest Director Economic and Business Research Center

More information

New Mexico. Comparison Profile prepared by the New Mexico Economic Development Department State Data Center. Page 1 of 5

New Mexico. Comparison Profile prepared by the New Mexico Economic Development Department State Data Center. Page 1 of 5 DEMOGRAPHICS Population estimates, July 1, 2014 2,085,572 Population, percent change - April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 1.4% Population estimates, July 1, 2013 2,085,287 Population, percent change - April

More information

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012 Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 212 GROWTH SINCE 29 The Growth Story Since 29 Despite the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and a series of shocks in its aftermath, the economy

More information

Agents summary of business conditions

Agents summary of business conditions Agents summary of business conditions February Consumer demand had continued to grow at a moderate pace. Housing market activity had remained subdued relative to levels in H. Investment intentions for

More information

A visual essay: Post-recession trends in nonfarm employment and related economic indicators

A visual essay: Post-recession trends in nonfarm employment and related economic indicators A visual essay: Post-recession trends in nonfarm employment and related economic indicators David Langdon, Rachel Krantz, and Michael Strople Real GDP Corporate profits Unemployment Insurance (UI) claims

More information

The Economic Contribution of the Oil and Gas Industry In Kern County

The Economic Contribution of the Oil and Gas Industry In Kern County INTRODUCTION The Economic Contribution of the Oil and Gas Industry In Kern County Kern Economic Development Foundation (KEDF) was contracted by the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) to conduct

More information

Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to 2024-25 SUMMARY REPORT

Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to 2024-25 SUMMARY REPORT Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to 2024-25 SUMMARY REPORT Prepared by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ABN: 72 006 234 626 416 Queens Parade, Clifton

More information

or trie President Economic Report TRANSMITTED TO THE CONGRESS 330- JANUARY I960

or trie President Economic Report TRANSMITTED TO THE CONGRESS 330- JANUARY I960 330- JANUARY I960 Economic Report or trie President TRANSMITTED TO THE CONGRESS Economic Report of the President TRANSMITTED TO THE CONGRESS JANUARY 20, 1960 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON

More information

US Nonagricultural Payrolls December 2007 - March 2009 ( 000's) 130,000 Dec 07 Mar 08 June 08 Sept 08 Dec 08 Mar 09

US Nonagricultural Payrolls December 2007 - March 2009 ( 000's) 130,000 Dec 07 Mar 08 June 08 Sept 08 Dec 08 Mar 09 NAVIGATING THE ECONOMIC STORM The National Slide In a Nutshell By the end of 2007, the signs could no longer be ignored. Escalating problems in the credit and housing markets were beginning to overtake

More information

CONNECTICUT ENERGY PRICE REPORT

CONNECTICUT ENERGY PRICE REPORT CONNECTICUT ENERGY PRICE REPORT 1/15/2015 DENOTES FALLING PRICES COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER DENOTES FLAT PRICES COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER DENOTES RISING PRICES COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER CONNECTICUT RETAIL

More information

Present Conditions of the U.S. Economy in Historical Perspective

Present Conditions of the U.S. Economy in Historical Perspective Present Conditions of the U.S. Economy in Historical Perspective by Victor Zarnowitz Senior Fellow and Economic Counselor The Conference Board 1. Introducing the Subject and Approach of this Paper As this

More information

Analysis of Whether the Prices of Renewable Fuel Standard RINs Have Affected Retail Gasoline Prices

Analysis of Whether the Prices of Renewable Fuel Standard RINs Have Affected Retail Gasoline Prices Analysis of Whether the Prices of Renewable Fuel Standard RINs Have Affected Retail Gasoline Prices A Whitepaper Prepared for the Renewable Fuels Association Key Findings Changes in prices of renewable

More information

Is U.S. Household Savings Rate Dangerously Low?

Is U.S. Household Savings Rate Dangerously Low? GLOBAL COMMENTARY July 22, 28 David Malpass 212-876-44 dmalpass@encimaglobal.com Is U.S. Household Savings Rate Dangerously Low? The front page of Sunday s New York Times highlighted the heavy household

More information

Oil Company Profits and Tax Collections: Does the U.S. Need a New Windfall Profits Tax?

Oil Company Profits and Tax Collections: Does the U.S. Need a New Windfall Profits Tax? November 9, 2005 Oil Company Profits and Tax Collections: Does the U.S. Need a New Windfall Profits Tax? by Scott A. Hodge and Jonathan Williams This week, the Senate will hold hearings on rising oil and

More information

Comparison Profile prepared by the New Mexico Economic Development Department State Data Center. Page 1 of 5

Comparison Profile prepared by the New Mexico Economic Development Department State Data Center. Page 1 of 5 Comparing New Mexico to Colorado DEMOGRAPHICS Colorado New Mexico Population estimates, July 1, 2014 5,355,866 2,085,572 Population, percent change - April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 1.4% 1.4% Population

More information

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY CARLY HARRISON Portland State University Following data revisions, the economy continues to grow steadily, but slowly, in line with expectations. Gross domestic product has increased,

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT $ in Billions CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics July 216 (May 216 Data) Highlights During May, credit unions picked-up 431, in new memberships, loan and savings balances grew at an

More information

Senior Loan Officer Survey 2015 Q4

Senior Loan Officer Survey 2015 Q4 21 November 215 Banking Sector Analysis Senior Loan Officer Survey 215 Q4 Filip Blazheski Not a lot of change and positive on the whole C&I and CRE loan demand still growing, but lending standards might

More information

Between 1986 and 2010, homeowners and renters. A comparison of 25 years of consumer expenditures by homeowners and renters.

Between 1986 and 2010, homeowners and renters. A comparison of 25 years of consumer expenditures by homeowners and renters. U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS OCTOBER 2012 VOLUME 1 / NUMBER 15 A comparison of 25 years of consumer expenditures by homeowners and renters Author: Adam Reichenberger, Consumer Expenditure Survey Between

More information