Adapting to air traffic growth in Europe

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1 Comment volerons-nous en 2050?/ Flying in 2050 Conference Session VII Air Traffic Management Adapting to air traffic growth in Europe Pierre ANDRIBET EUROCONTROL SESAR and Research Deputy Director Comment volerons-nous nous en 2050? / Flying in May Toulouse

2 Comment volerons-nous en 2050? / Flying in 2050 Conference Session VII Air Traffic Management Adapting to air traffic growth in Europe 2050 most probable context May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 2

3 Comment volerons-nous en 2050? / Flying in 2050 Conference Session VII Air Traffic Management Relative weights of Europe and US will significantly reduce compared to Asia Pacific 2006 (Chiffres OACI) May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 3

4 Comment volerons-nous en 2050? / Flying in 2050 Conference Session VII Air Traffic Management Relative weights of Europe and US will significantly reduce compared to Asia Pacific 2036 (Chiffres OACI) May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 4

5 Comment volerons-nous en 2050? / Flying in 2050 Conference Session VII Air Traffic Management 2050 IFR Traffic in EUROPE will be maximum twice of 2005 Traffic Very few new Airports but Traffic better spread overtime and geographically Majority of commercial Aircraft will be from 2010 s s and 2020 s generation, Some new Airborne vehicles (UAS, personal A/C) may appear May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 5

6 Comment volerons-nous nous en 2050?/ Flying in 2050 Conference Session VII Air Traffic Management Adapting to air traffic growth in Europe Technical challenges May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 6

7 Challenges Up to doubling of IFR traffic Challenges Up to doubling of IFR traffic Efficiency as prime objective Efficiency as prime objective Increasing Increasing constraint weight of environmental constraint Resilience to crisis (Meteo( Meteo, ) New types of vehicles and Pilots Resilience to crisis (Meteo( Meteo, ) New types of vehicles and Pilots May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 7

8 Solutions Airspace design and Management A single European Network Airspace Management designed and Optimised at European Level Separation A mix of High density Highways for high density area and Peak hours and direct Airport Routes as far as possible elsewhere Airspace design Technologies and Management Challenges Up to doubling of IFR traffic Efficiency as prime objective Increasing weight of environmental constraint Resilience to crisis (Meteo( Meteo, ) New types of vehicles and Pilots May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 8

9 Airspace design and Management SWIM to share information Separationand implement CDM Solutions Network Management Airport A European Control and command centre (US ATSCC like) to Manage the Network Technologies From a slot allocation 2 hours before departure to a 4D trajectory contract to optimise traffic and de-conflict ( separation) Network Management Challenges Up to doubling of IFR traffic Efficiency as prime objective Increasing weight of environmental constraint Resilience to crisis (Meteo( Meteo, ) New types of vehicles and Pilots May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 9

10 Solutions Airspace design and Management Network Management Separation Airport Tactical separation delegated to pilot for equipped Aircraft and from the ground for Technologies others Airspace segregation for different types of Aircraft (Highly automated private A/C, UAS, versus Commercial A/C) Separation Challenges Up to doubling of IFR traffic Efficiency as prime objective Increasing weight of environmental constraint Resilience to crisis (Meteo( Meteo, ) New types of vehicles and Pilots May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 10

11 Solutions Airspace design and Management Network Management Separation Airport An anticipated sequencing Technologies to optimise Apt capacity and flight efficiency Dynamic trade-off between Capacity and environmental constraints for approach (Dynamic sequencing, Station keeping, CDA, optimised Runway occupancy ) Optimised surface management (Moving map, optimised taxiing, ) Airport Challenges Up to doubling of IFR traffic Efficiency as prime objective Increasing weight of environmental constraint Resilience to crisis (Meteo( Meteo, ) New types of vehicles and Pilots May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 11

12 Solutions Airspace design and Management Network Management Separation Airport Challenges Up to doubling of IFR traffic Efficiency as prime objective Increasing weight of environmental constraint Resilience to crisis (Meteo( Meteo, ) New types of vehicles and Pilots Technologies Navigation: : Augmented GPS/Galileo complemented by ground infrastructure for safety reasons, VRNP, RTA Surveillance: : still a mix of independent and dependant but extended to oceanic and desert area. Airborne situation awareness. Communication: : Voice communication kept but numerical, D/L needs increased for ATM (4D) and exchange of information (AIM, Meteo ) ) will more and more rely on commercial solutions ATM systems: : Cloud computing May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 12 Technologies

13 Comment volerons-nous nous en 2050?/ Flying in 2050 Conference Session VII Air Traffic Management Adapting to air traffic growth in Europe Institutional challenges May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 13

14 Institutional Challenges (1) Technical progress alone will not allow to meet 2050 challenges if not combined with institutional evolution: European community agencies technically competent with an enforcement power (regulation, development of technical standards, evolution of Network Manager towards an European ATS Command Centre, European Transportation Safety Board,, European Management of Research) FAB based on Operational constraints and not on political considerations May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 14

15 Institutional Challenges (2) Technical progress alone will not allow to meet 2050 challenges if not combined with institutional evolution: Unbundling of ATM/CNS services looking for economy of scales (European or regional level) A revised financial model with a clear choice between the current system based on route charges economically regulated or an orthodox budgetary system separating incomes from expenses May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 15

16 Worldwide perspective Asia Pacific will become the third complex area concerning Air Traffic Management, Estimated growth will however be manageable using comparable technology than in USA and Europe, Main challenges will be to succeed in implementing rapid organisational changes, and in implementing compatible solutions to maintain worldwide interoperability for aviation May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 16

17 Summary European community agencies technically competent with an enforcement power A revised financial model Unbundling of ATM/CNS technical services An European R&D programme May 2012 Toulouse - (P Andribet) 17

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