The Next Industrial Revolution:
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1 The Next Industrial Revolution: What s driving it and what are the opportunities? OECD, Paris, March Address by Peter Marsh Author, The New Industrial Revolution: Consumers, Globalization and the End of Mass Production
2 After the economic crisis...
3 What s the future for manufacturing?
4 Some optimistic views There s a new zeitgeist: I m seeing a global manufacturing renaissance : Jeff Immelt, chief executive, General Electric, April 2012.
5 China a bigger part of the picture 110-inch flat screen made by BOE electronics company
6 A mix of skills and capabilities
7 Production jobs becoming scarcer
8 EU manufacturing employment dropped 11 per cent between 2008 & 2012 (net loss 4.3m jobs)
9 The Next Industrial Revolution What manufacturing means Global trends The 5 th industrial revolution Growth opportunities 8
10 The Next Industrial Revolution The meaning of manufacturing 9
11 What lies behind manufacturing Manufacturing = Materials + Energy + Ideas The creative force behind 10bn unique products It accounts for 16 per cent of world economy (10pc of UK economy) It employs about 300m people (1/3 in China) or roughly 5 pc of world population The price effect: manufacturing characterised by deflation (compared to services)
12 The table of life
13 Bringing order to chaos (countering the 2 nd law of thermodynamics)
14 Even though entropy cannot be beaten...
15 ...people are having a go
16 10,000 years of evolution in adding information to materials Stone age axe : resources needed to make one unit Number of manufacturing workers: 1 Number of sites: 1 Number of materials: 1 Skills honed by learning over decades
17 Where we are now The iphone 5: resources needed to make one unit Number of manufacturing workers: 5,000 Number of sites:50 Number of materials: 50 Skills honed by science and technology advances
18 The Next Industrial Revolution The meaning of manufacturing Global trends 17
19 The last 3,500 years Pre-industry (1,500BC to 1500 AD) : Iron Age, glass production, metals Proto-industry ( ) ;Venice shipyard (c.1500) First Industrial Revolution ( ): steam power, textile machinery Second Industrial Revolution ( ) : communications; railways, telegraph Third Industrial Revolution ( ): science based methodology; electricity, chemistry Fourth Industrial Revolution ( ): computers, electronics
20 1800 At the dawn of modern manufacturing Share of world production 1. China 33.3% 2. India* 19.7% 3. Russia 5.6% 4. UK 4.3% 5. France 4.2% 6. Germany** 3.5% Early Chinese astronomical clock 6. Japan 3.5% Source: Paul Bairoch data; *includes Pakistan; ** German states
21 1900 Britain s century; but the US taking over Share of world production 1. US 23.6% 2. UK 18.5% 3. Germany 13.2% 4. Russia 8.8% 5. France 6.8% 6. China 6.2% Isambard Kingdom Brunel, pioneer of the First Industrial Revolution 7. Japan 3.5% Source: Paul Bairoch data
22 2012 China regains the lead Share of world production 1. China 22.4% 2. US 17.5% 3. Japan 9.4% 4.Germany 6.0% 5. South Korea 2.8% 6. Italy 2.4% Giant Sany crane 7.Russia 2.3% Source: UN data
23 Growth in manufacturing output China +241% Britain - 9% Europe + 14% World + 52% France + 1% Germany + 23% Japan + 13% US +20% (Constant 2005 dollars, Source: UN) 22
24 Who s re-shoring? Changes over year in shares of world manufacturing (percentage points) 2012* 2013** 2014** China US Mexico/Australia/Russia UK India Japan Italy Germany (Source:*UN-2011/12 data; Oxford Economics-**estimates and forecasts for 2013/14)
25 World manufacturing output 2012 ($bn, current prices) 1. China 2,556 (22.4%) 2. US 1,994 (17.5%) 3. Japan 1, Germany S Korea Italy Russia Brazil India France World 11,426 Source: UN 24
26 World manufacturing output 2012 ($bn, current prices) 11.UK Indonesia Mexico Canada Spain Taiwan 130* 17. Turkey Australia Switzerland Thailand 111 Source: UN, IHS Global Insight * estimate 25
27 World manufacturing output 2012 (percentages) Asia 43% Europe 26% N America 22% S America 3% Africa 2% Rest of world 4% Source: UN 26
28 World manufacturing deflation A typical factory-produced item today typically sells for half the price it sold for in 1970 (relative to overall global inflation) 27
29 The Next Industrial Revolution The meaning of manufacturing Global trends The 5 th industrial revolution 28
30 The Next Industrial Revolution (Fifth Industrial Revolution)-Key factors 1. Blended technology 2. Mass personalisation/customisation 3. Focus on specialisation/niches 4. Environmental stewardship 5. Service dimension 6. Global networking 7. Cluster dynamics 8. The new geography China/India/S America 9. The maverick manufacturer
31 The Next Industrial Revolution 1. Blended technology
32 The A350: many key technologies
33 Glass for flat-screen TVs/monitors...
34 Blended technology: the biotech/electronics mix New materials: carbon fibre composites
35 The Next Industrial Revolution 1. Blended technology 2. Mass personalisation/customisation
36 Technology/business methods make customisation more affordable and practicable...
37 The Zara production model short production runs, made near the customer
38 The Next Industrial Revolution 1. Blended technology 2. Mass personalisation/customisation 3D Printing adds new tools
39 The new technology of additive manufacturing
40 Building objects by layers
41 A few European entrants (Prodways of France)
42 China is making big strides (Beijing Long Yuan machines)
43 A range of new products/parts New materials: carbon fibre composites
44 ..but the US firmly ahead (Abe Reichental and his 3D-printed guitar)
45 The Next Industrial Revolution 1. Blended technology 2. Mass personalisation/customisation 3. Focus on specialisation/niches
46 Tunnelling machines Herrenknecht (made in Germany)
47 Winzeler (Chicago): global leader in plastic gears
48 The Next Industrial Revolution 1. Blended technology 2. Mass personalisation/customisation 3. Focus on specialisation/niches 4. Environmental stewardship
49 Qbotix: robots (made in California) for solar tracking
50 Environmental stewardship: grow your own wool
51 The Next Industrial Revolution 1. Blended technology 2. Mass personalisation/customisation 3. Focus on specialisation/niches 4. Environmental stewardship 5. Service dimension
52 Goppion: manufacture/service in combination
53 Exploit skills links in areas such as ship repair
54 The Next Industrial Revolution 1. Blended technology 2. Mass personalisation/customisation 3. Focus on specialisation/niches 4. Environmental stewardship 5. Service dimension 6. Global networking
55 What s the link between...
56 ...Chinese electronics factories...
57 ...the Westwind air bearing company in southern Britain...
58 ...and a factory in the English countryside?
59 Global networking: R.A.Chilton coatings company
60 The Next Industrial Revolution 1. Blended technology 2. Mass personalisation/customisation 3. Focus on specialisation/niches 4. Environmental stewardship 5. Service dimension 6. Global networking 7. Cluster dynamics
61 IMA: packaging machines (Bologna district)
62 The Next Industrial Revolution 1. Blended technology 2. Mass personalisation/customisation 3. Focus on specialisation/niches 4. Environmental stewardship 5. Service dimension 6. Global networking 7. Cluster dynamics 8. The new geography China/India/S America
63 Giant new competitors (Sany in construction machines)...
64 ..but Chinese connections can pay off for Europe (Jaguar Land Rover )
65 The Next Industrial Revolution 1. Blended technology 2. Mass personalisation/customisation 3. Focus on specialisation/niches 4. Environmental stewardship 5. Service dimension 6. Global networking 7. Cluster dynamics 8. The new geography China/India/S America 9. The maverick manufacturer
66 Maverick approch: Thomas Heatherwick designer/engineer
67 Linking US and China business/technology: Mark Zou of Alltech
68 Madécasse: Tim McCollum (Madagscar chocolate production)
69 The Next Industrial Revolution The meaning of manufacturing Global trends The 5 th industrial revolution Growth opportunities 68
70 Support specialists (Nidec)
71 Spot entrepreneurs : Berthold Leibinger of Trumpf
72 Vital to support existing businesses Vitsoe sitting comfortably -
73 ...and help new ones Bouncepad - niche products made in London by a German designer
74 Encourage cross-border businesses: Ning Li of Made.com
75 Add skills to old industries: a 600m gamble at Arvedi steelmaker (Italy)
76 Manufacturing clusters: take note of Germany
77 Add service skills: manufacturers as physicians
78 Possibilities abound
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