3 Degrees of Separation:

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Roxanne Stewart
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1 3 Degrees of Separation: How The Relentless March Of Connectivity Is Transforming Markets Haydn Shaughnessy Helsinki, March 2014

2 Connection as Disruption

3 Social movement as a managerial tool Leadership is accepting responsibility to create conditions that enable others to achieve shared purpose in the face of uncertainty. Marshall Ganz

4 6 Degrees of Separation

5 Social Connection Theories Urban social connections about 6 degrees of separation in complex cities connectedness varied 7 9 but could be below 6, so no strong pattern Facebook connectedness 5.73 in one game-like study; 4.74 in a more comprehensive piece of maths, more recent study says 3.9 Twitter connectedness 3.43

6 Presence and TRUST Telegraphy Telephone Radio TV Internet World Wide Web Social media Social networks TRUST IS NOW PROBLEMATIC A LARGE PART OF THIS CREATES THOSE NEW PERSONAL VALIDATION SYSTEMS THAT ARE CHANGING MANAGEMENT

7 Connection and economic growth Source: Erik Bohlin Chalmers University Of Technology

8 Macro-effects of connection Doubling of broadband speed leads to additional 0.3% GDP (compared to a 2008 baseline). Source: Erik Bohlin Chalmers University Of Technology Broadband adoption boosts firm productivity by 7 10 % Source: Grimes, Ren, and Stevens (2012)

9 TYPES OF CONNECTIVITY SOCIAL NETWORK - PRESENCE COMMUNITY CO-CONSUMPTION ECOSYSTEM CO-PRODUCTION

10 New Levels of Insight Changing business models and connectivity Connected and one-to-one social data The crowd Movement Personal data ownership

11 THE INTEGRATED CONSUMER By 2016, there will be 3 billion Internet users globally Developing countries have 800 million Internet users, more than G-20 countries combined. Social networks reach about 80 per cent of users in developed and developing economies alike.

12 Looking for direct connection with consumers SERVICES PRODUCT/PLATFORM SOCIAL VIDEO Health Music

13 Benefits How you connect is transformed. You know how customers are succeeding with your product. You don t go out every six months and interview them. You have direct privacy, security, and success insight every morning and that goes well beyond what CRM gave us. Amar Haspal, Autodesk.

14 The Next 4 Billion White spaces Developing economies LOON Drones Titan Aerospace + MOOCs

15 Stock price impact of switching from product to recurring revenue

16 THE CONNECTED CONSUMER

17 Interests of Twitter Followers of Sundance Channel Peek Analytics

18 Deeper dive on Sundance Channel - Peek Analytics

19 Audience Metrics from Intent HQ

20 More Specific Interests

21 CHANGING CONSUMER LANDSCAPE

22 Consumer as service provider Free co-working space Car sharing

23 Consumer/employee As Marketer Using fans and advocates to distribute offers

24 Annotate the world emerging social network types Annotate culture Annotate physical space Annotate the traffic

25 Service Infrastructure Manages search and response on issues arising online Marketplace for non-elite Athlete product endorsement Helps you manage your A PINTEREST for work related ideas and

26 Building on open source Open source house design Open source neuroscience tools

27 Social Movements CONSUMERS SEEKING EXPRESSION OF NEW VALUES

28 Movements Science Mobs 3D Printing

29 Personal DATA Innovation IS NOW A MOVEMENT Post-Snowden

30 The 10p Rolls Royce Reduction in the relative price of autos and data

31 Brokering customer service Uses personal data stores at Allfiled to create energy switching service

32 Personal Cloud Anonymity, Control, Service Switching Anti-social networks that emphasise confidentiality Personal information can be shared safely, i.e. between patients and healthcare providers; banks and customers; citizens and government; employers and employees; assertion of

33 New Trust Networks Supported by Orange, Deutsche Telekom Partnership of 45 organizations so far looking at data store portability and common trust

34 IMPLICATIONS

Social decision model Market validation by crowd Socialised marketing/ e.g. double incentive We are reshaping TRUST at every step IDEAS Platform Crowdfunded project Co-created information layer on e.

35 Social decision model Market validation by crowd Socialised marketing/ e.g. double incentive We are reshaping TRUST at every step IDEAS Platform Crowdfunded project Co-created information layer on e.g. blogging, fb etc Customers now selfservice support Developer or content ecosystem Customer ecosystem iterates product Ramp up via personal data brokers In sharing economy, customers co-consume

36 The Pilot and Roll Out Version Of Projects TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET Year 1 revenue = TAM * 20% Year 2 revenue = TAM * 25% Discount rate 15% NPV Year 3 revenue = TAM * 35% Costs

37 Iterative Customer-Driven Design Creating attention Drawing in customer networks vs channels Expand customer role Validation of proposition, cost and revenue * * * * Use customer integration to control cost and reduce uncertainty about revenues Iterate functions and design, eg. agile

Working with a range of uncertainty by crowdsourcing low, median and upper estimates of returns 500000 t 0 500000 t 1 500000 t 2 500000 t 3 400000 400000 400000 400000 300000 300000 300000 300000

38 Working with a range of uncertainty by crowdsourcing low, median and upper estimates of returns t t t t , , , ,5 1 Creating certainty in the distribution of returns Mikael Collan, LUT

39 C The span of the possible directions the market can take Portfolio 2 Portfolio 1 Portfolio 3 STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY B A Parametric uncertainty Mikael Collan, LUT 2014 TODAY STRATEGIC OPTIONS PORTFOLIO EVALUATION

40 CHANGES TO INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE CENTRALITY OF CUSTOMER The attention layer (scale-free attraction) Flexible technical and service infrastructure Social networks Customer, data and insights Community = adjacency plays from outside the sector = the incumbent = the platform

41 Transition in The Attention Layer From Attention to Attraction Community, ecosystem, presence

42 The New Attention Layer Insights need to equate with relationship. Essential to leveraging iterative development processes Theoretically following some kind of preferential attachment law ie know the influencers

43 SUMMARY Social redefines trust and takes away traditional brand levers: the brand cannot be at the centre It also forces a redefinition of process: integrate social or die Decision-making: need new decision tools to deal with uncertainty based on social And opportunity: in the attention layers of

44 HOW TO UNDERESTAND DISRUPTION AND GET AHEAD OF INSIGHTS

45 Shouldn t we have a store of crowdsourced disruption vectors?

46 Disruption Analysis How Do We Consistently Hit The Mark In Understanding Change?

47 Step 1 Identifying the issue at stake: The issues in this example are how will hardware design be disrupted? What will it look like in future? Who will be the beneficiaries Identify six likely disruption vectors via your private crowd in this case

48 Step 2 Allocate, via your own private crowd, a weight to each

49 Step 3 Identify potential beneficiary and disrupted companies in the sector of interest or adjacent sectors. In this case: Nike Intel Disney Amazon Samsung

50 Step 4 Research/explore the capabilities of these companies along the vectors and score them out of 10 or a scale of your choosing, in this case it was 5.

51 Disruption Analysis How Do We Consistently Hit The Mark In Understanding Change?

52 ends

53 Approxiate uncertainty analysis EXAMPLE Creating a new data-centric service for preventive treatment How do we make a decision when most of what we know is clouded in uncertainty?

54 Social Decision Models and Strategic Options Planning MAKE FINANCIAL METRICS PART OF THE DISCOVERY PROCESS ADOPT TECHNIQUES THAT EMBRACE UNCERTAINTY IMPLIES CAPACITY TO MAKE MANY MORE DECISIONS WITH NO OLIGOPOLY ASSURANCES WITH 3 DEGREES OF SEPERATION YOU HAVE TO MAKE OPTION DECISION MAKING A SOCIAL EVENT

55 DOMAIN 3. We become the utility and create the platform Social Decision Making EXAMPLE: Creating a new data-centric service for preventive treatment OPTIONS? DOMAIN 1. We do it ourselves but small scale DOMAIN 2. We find the right partners and scale up

56 EXAMPLE ATTRIBUTES IN THE PLATFORM DOMAIN 1. Bringing in social data sets or news 2. Dealing with regulatory updates 3. Creating awareness in a complex market segmentation 4. Development of a shared services platform 5. Orchestrating different service offerings, e.g. with marketing collateral and website

57 Some Kinda Fuzzy Social Scoring System Scoring attribute 2 Dealing with regulatory updates NHS McLaren Health data inc Newbie health An average of a crowdsourced scoring of what is a fully possible outcome for this attribute

58 Higher and lower scores over multiple attributes

59 CREATING A STANDARD COMPETENCY PROFILE FOR THE INDUSTRY

60 TOTAL ALL INDUSTRY RANGE SCORES, OVER SAY 25 ATTRIBUTES An Industry Standard Score Industry

61 Who Is Best Placed, Roughly in, Platform Domain? NHS MCLAREN HEALTHDATA INC NEWBIE HEALTH INDUSTRY

62 Another way to look at all the attributes

63 How Do We Manage That Process?

64 Insights Before Trends Heuristics Networks /Ecosystem Narrative Validation

65 CO-CREATE AND UPDATE CROWD-BASED DISRUPTION MODELS HEURISTICS

66 VALIDATION Elastic Innovation Index UNCERTAINTY CREATES NEW NEEDS FOR VALIDATION

67 Narrative Digital allows us to completely reinvent how we engage with our customers, allows us an ongoing dialogue, and allows us to redesign the monetization principles and restructure the money flows. - Alberto Prado, Vice President Digital

68 Network and Ecosystem As Decision Makers

69 SUMMARY SOCIAL IS BOTH THE DISRUPTION AND THE TOOL TO GET AHEAD OF INSIGHTS SOCIAL DECISION MODELS AND STRATEGIC OPTIONS PLANNING IS THE FRAMEWORK CHANGES IN DATA CURATION WILL BE PROFOUND THE KEY IS IN CREATING OPTIONS AND BEING CO-PRODUCTIVE AND CO-DECISIVE AND IN TRUY MANAGING UNCERTAINTY NOT HIDING FROM IT

Smart City Live! 9-10 May 2016, Nice

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