Koen Verbist UNESCO International Hydrological Programme

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1 Koen Verbist UNESCO International Hydrological Programme

2 Climate Risk Management Development of a Climate Risk Management system for the region, based on three pillars: 1. Identify Vulnerabilities and Oportunities Evaluation of water use efficiency and vulnerabilities in pilot areas 2. Reduce Uncertainties: a) Learn from the Past b) Monitor the Present c) Assess Future scenarios 3. Identify Technological Interventions that reduce climatic vulnerability Evaluate water management alternatives (water harvesting, deficit irrigation) Courtesy

3 Climate Risk Management Development of a Climate Risk Management system for the region, based on three pillars: 1. Identify Vulnerabilities and Oportunities Evaluation of water use efficiency and vulnerabilities in pilot areas 2. Reduce Uncertainties: a) Learn from the Past b) Monitor the Present c) Assess Future scenarios IWRM 3. Identify Technological Interventions that reduce climatic vulnerability Evaluate water management alternatives (water harvesting, deficit irrigation) Courtesy

4 MAGIC water management model Identify Vulnerabilities

5 Identify Vulnerabilities Base Case Improved water use efficiency Improved irrigation efficiency (Orphanopoulos et al., SCAR, 2012)

6 Identify Vulnerabilities Increase in the cultivated area with 37% Aquifer response (Orphanopoulos et al., SCAR, 2012)

7 Climate Risk Management The Water Centre for Arid Zones in Latin America and the Caribbean (CAZALAC) has been developing a Climate Risk Management system for the region, based on three pillars: 1. Identify Vulnerabilities and Oportunities Evaluation of water use efficiency and vulnerabilities in pilot areas 2. Reduce Uncertainties: a) Learn from the Past b) Monitor the Present c) Assess Future scenarios Eventos Extremos 3. Identify Technological Interventions that reduce climatic vulnerability Evaluate water management alternatives Courtesy

8 Extreme events and drought LAC Drought atlas Capacitate the Caribbean countries Establishing the first LAC drought Atlas (annual) Precipitation Intensity Duration Frequency Maps Extreme events Discharge Maximum/Minimum Discharge

9 Case Study: Frequency Analysis of Droughts in the Central Northern Region of Chile Small drought event Strong drought event = equal risk : every 2-4 years Large differences in recurrence: Between 4 and >24 years (from Nunez et al., 2011, Journal of Hydrology)

10 Frequency Analysis of Droughts in Venezuela Small drought event (20% deficit) Strong drought event (40% deficit) Return period (yr) Common in the whole territory Only frequent in the north

11 The Latin American Drought Atlas Return period (yr) (Nuñez, Verbist et al., 2011, J. of Hydrology)

12 Extreme Events Intensity Duration Frequency Maps Intensity-Duration Frequency Curves INTENSITY (in/hr) Year 50-Year 25-Year 10-Year 5-Year 2-Year 6-Month Seattle Metropolitan Area DURATION (Minutes)

13 P-5: Methodology Extreme discharge frequency analysis

14 Climate Risk Management The Water Centre for Arid Zones in Latin America and the Caribbean (CAZALAC) has been developing a Climate Risk Management system for the region, based on three pillars: 1. Identify Vulnerabilities and Oportunities Evaluate water use efficiency and vulnerabilities 2. Reduce Uncertainties: a) Learn from the Past b) Monitor the Present c) Assess Future scenarios Drought Monitoring 3. Identify Technological Interventions that reduce climatic vulnerability Evaluate water management alternatives Courtesy

15 Drought Observatory Data Library Data sets Precipitation Discharge Humedad de suelo Vegetation Indices SPI WASP Anomalía SWI NDWI NDVI FAPAR VTCI Institutes DMC DGA FDF INIA ESA NASA VITO Formats Excel ASCII NetCDF HDF DODS Maprooms Meteorological Drought Hydrological Drought Agricultural Drought Combined Drought Index

16 Drought Observatory Data Library Data Input Data Manipulation Visualization Output

17 Drought Observatory Maprooms Visualization for end user portal / observatorio

18 Structure of the Observatory Agroclimatic Observatory Information on drought frequencies and extreme events Historical Future Information on forecasts Seasonal Outlook Present Information on present drought and extreme events (monitoring)

19 Structure of the Observatory

20 Historical Information on drought frequency and extreme events

21 Historical Information on drought frequency and extreme events

22 Present Information on present drought and extreme events (monitoring)

23 Present Information on present drought and extreme events (monitoring) 1. Meteorological Drought

24 Present Information on present drought and extreme events (monitoring) 1. Meteorological Drought Allows comparing deficit throughout Chile Allows evaluating the duration of the deficit

25 Present Information on present drought and extreme events (monitoring) 2. Hydrological Drought

26 Present Information on present drought and extreme events (monitoring) 3. Agricultural Drought

27 Climate Risk Management The Water Centre for Arid Zones in Latin America and the Caribbean (CAZALAC) has been developing a Climate Risk Management system for the region, based on three pillars: 1. Identify Vulnerabilities and Oportunities Evaluate water use efficiency and vulnerabilities 2. Reduce Uncertainties: a) Learn from the Past b) Monitor the Present c) Assess Future scenarios Drought Forecasting 3. Identify Technological Interventions that reduce climatic vulnerability Evaluate water management alternatives Courtesy

28 Climatic variability in the drylands Example: What is the average rainfall in the 4 th Region?

29 Drought Prediction Can we identify a common regional influence on rainfall? (K. Verbist et al., 2010, JAMC)

30 SST 1. Seasonal prediction GCM Winter Precipitation Retrospective cross-validated prediction 4 months lead time (K. Verbist et al., 2010, JAMC)

31 Can we use these approaches to predict drought? Standardized Precipitation Index ENSO Index GCM (CFS) nhmm Observed Extremely Wet Very Wet Moderately Wet Normal Moderately Dry Very Dry Extremely Dry

32 2. Streamflow prediction for reservoir management Winter Precipitation Melting Summer discharge Puclaro reservoir Support water allocation to agriculture, cities and industry (mining)

33 Climate Risk Management The Water Centre for Arid Zones in Latin America and the Caribbean (CAZALAC) has been developing a Climate Risk Management system for the region, based on three pillars: 1. Identify Vulnerabilities and Oportunities Evaluate water use efficiency and vulnerabilities 2. Reduce Uncertainties: a) Learn from the Past b) Monitor the Present c) Assess Future scenarios Climate Change Impact 3. Identify Technological Interventions that reduce climatic vulnerability Evaluate water management alternatives Courtesy

34 What are the components of variability?

35 Methodology Near-term climate change scenario analysis tool (Greene, Hellmuth and Lumsden, 2012, WRR).

36 Downscaling of projections to the local level Variables maintain their correlation and are consistent with past conditions Allows to evaluate the probability of droughts and extreme events and evaluate the potential impact on water resources

37 MWAR-LAC Project outlooks ( ) Overall objective The overall goal of the project is to contribute to a reduction in the vulnerability of water resources systems to global changes in local communities of arid and semiarid environments in LAC, based on sound scientific knowledge. Climate change Extreme events Drought monitoring Capacity building Outreach Soil and water management

38 Project website: Koen Verbist UNESCO-IHP

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