Climate vulnerability assessment Risks from urban flooding Interactive science and policy assessment

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1 Climate vulnerability assessment Risks from urban flooding Interactive science and policy assessment Flood risk from extreme precipitation in Copenhagen - Modelling results Per Skougaard Kaspersen, DTU Management Engineering

2 Outline Introduction what happened on the 2. of July 2011? expected future climate change in Denmark Flood risk from extreme rainfall Copenhagen Skt. Kjeldsarea Potential adaptation options Conclusions 2 DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre

3 What happened on the 2. of July 2011 Insurance claims from cloud bursts - Denmark million Residential - Building Residential - Assets Business - Building Business - Assets Other - Building Other - Assets 2.July cloud burst in CPH DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre

4 What happened on the 2. of July 2011 Ü Kilometers 4 DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre

5 Future climate change in Denmark Change in annual precipitation towards 2100 (A2 scenario) Impacts of climate change on rainfall characteristics in Denmark towards the year 2100 Increase in average annual precipitation 25-55% increase in winter 0-40% decrease in summer Increase in frequency and intensity of precipitation events 30% increase in intensity of 10 year events 40% increase in intensity of 100 year events Change (%) High : 25 Source:DMI Low : 10 5 DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre

6 Flood risk from extreme rainfall Map: Maximum flood extent and water level in Copenhagen from extreme precipitation with a return period of 100 years (no climate change) Flood extent: 6km2 flooded 5-10% of total area Ü Copenhagen Model output: Results of 1d/2d hydrological modelling using MIKE by DHI models (MIKE Urban/MIKE Flood) Water level (m) Kilometers 6 DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre

7 Flood risk from extreme rainfall Assets flooded during an extreme rainfall events with a return period of 100yr today (no climate change) Ü Damage costs - buildings basements roads Based on model output! Buildings 2000 buildings flooded Basements 8000 basements flooded Low cost Roads 88km flooded Medium cost High cost Kilometers 7 DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre

8 Skt. Kjelds area (Climate neighbourhood) - Location: North eastern part of Central Copenhagen Skt. Kjelds area - Area size: 4.5 km2 - Land use: Mix of housing, business and recreational areas Green areas Business Housing - Population: inhabitants and jobs 8 DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre

9 Flood risk from extreme rainfall Ü Skt. Kjelds area Flooding: 0.25 km2 flooded 5-6 % of total area Flood prone assets Roads Basements Buildings Recreational areas Basement damage hotspot 9 DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre Water level (m) (m) Exposed Roads Roads Exposed Buildings Buildings Kilometers

10 Potential adaptation options Grey measures Decoupling of rainwater from sewage system in open "green" channels Temporary water storage in basins or fascines Separate treatment of rainwater and wastewater in drainage system Upgrade drainage system Green measures Increase in size of green areas (reduce impervious surfaces) for higher infiltration and delay of runoff Designated flood retention areas (inside/outside of urban area): recreational areas, agriculture, forests etc. Soft measures Behaviour guidance (storage of valuables in basements) Insurance Financial incentives for private house owners (tax reduction when climate proofing) 10 DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre

11 Potential adaptation options (Skt Kjelds) Decoupling of Is this efficient climate rainwater from sewage adaptation?? system in open "green" channels (LAR) Reduce impervious surfaces 11 DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre

12 Conclusions Most parts of Copenhagen are potentially exposed to flooding (and impacts) from extreme precipitation Damage hot (wet!) spots varies according to the impact category under consideration (i.e. buildings, roads, basements) The impact and damage costs of an extreme events are EXTREME! No single adaptation measure (technical/geographical) will be adequate in protecting Copenhagen from the impacts of future flooding from extreme precipitation events. 12 DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre

13 Questions to the practitioner(s) Why focus on Skt. Kjelds area as a laboratory for climate adaptation when other areas in Copenhagen are equally or more exposed towards the impacts of flooding from extreme precipitation? Is it an cost effective climate adaptation strategy to adopt a "neighbourhood" approach when adapting to the impacts of flooding from extreme precipitation? What are the incentives for private house owners to invest in climate proofing? Is the municipality paying? 13 DTU Management Engineering, Climate Centre

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