The Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network: The Concept and its Progress

Transcription

1 The Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network: The Concept and its Progress Adrian R. Trotman Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology Inter-regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought 8-11 December, 2009 Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

2 Projected rainfall changes Top row: Fractional change in precipitation DJF and JJA between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099, averaged over 21 models. Bottom row: number of models out of 21 that project increases in precipitation. IPCC, 2007: WG2-AR4

3 10 Year Moving average of Rainfall from 1850s to 1990s Typical of Eastern Caribbean

4 Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CDPMN)

5 Precipitation status monitored using a number of indices Standardized Precipitation Index; Palmer Drought Severity Index; Crop Moisture Index Other indicators (e.g. water levels, state of vegetation and ecosystems) Final precipitation status determined, by consensus, by a network of persons from different sectors, institutions and communities embracing the diversity in definitions and impacts of drought Short term and seasonal precipitation forecasts to provide a projection of future drought (1-6 months possible)

6 Caribbean Water Initiative (CARIWIN) Launched in February 2007 Implemented jointly by McGill University, CIMH and 3 partner countries (Grenada, Jamaica, Guyana) Goal is to increase the capacity of the Caribbean countries to deliver equitable and sustainable IWRM by Improving the capacity to meet water management needs Integrating IWRM approaches into CIMH Build national capacities of meteorology and hydrology CDPMN launched under CARIWIN in January 2009 CDPMN expected to be fully operational by

7 CDPMN on two scales Caribbean Basin Monitoring Country-level Monitoring

8 Caribbean SPI

9 National SPI Barbados

10 National monitors allow for indices and indicators using information other than rainfall (a) (b) (a)mean PDSI values for April and (b) PDSI for April 1998 Note the lower PDSI values in the El Niño year, 1998.

11 National monitors allow for indices and indicators using information other than rainfall (a) Index (b) Vol Content (m3m-3*100) -4 0 CMI WC Crop moisture index and measured soil moisture content

12 Wet Season SPI Edgecumbe, Barbados Edgecumbe SPI Jul-Dec (6-mth) Indices can indicate history of timing, duration and severity of drought Important for impact studies and adaptation considerations As expected, the SPI showing similar cyclical trends as the rainfall

13 Prediction using Precipitation Outlook for the Caribbean? Final PO output based on data from several models. Drought prediction, use the final output or start from the models?

14 SPI Outlook November Station 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth 12 mth Wallblake Anguilla VC Bird Antigua Bayaguana DR Piarco Trinidad

15 CHALLENGES Climatological and Real Time Data a concern Efforts are on stream for DATA RESCUE For In-country monitoring lack of soil, stream flow and reservoir data In the case of the Caribbean basin, need data across, not provincial, but country boundaries (mainly islands) Language English, Spanish, French, Dutch Non land-based data (e.g. reanalysis) not always representative

16 Outcomes of the CDPMN 1. Through the hydrometric stations and sensor data, monitor hydrological indicators, climate indicators Projection of future status (using precipitation forecasts and drought indices 3. Early warning information through CIMH website and networking with key agencies, governments 4. Build adaptation and response strategies to drought and flooding events collaboration with a network of communities, researchers and decision makers

17 Drought and Flood Planning Data collection, monitoring and dissemination Integrating climate indices and other indicators into routine decision making processes Determining existing needs, scientific knowledge gaps Forecasting, predicting, strengthening infrastructure Establish monitoring systems and early warning systems Information can then be used by decision makers at community level and national level to improve livelihoods All toward MANAGING RISK