International food security consequences for Norwegian policy. Chr. Anton Smedshaug

Transcription

1 International food security consequences for Norwegian policy Chr. Anton Smedshaug

2 Disposition Agriculture and prices in history Political consequences The challenge today The role of Norway How to develop agriculture?

3 Agricultural challenges Feed people now 6.7 mrd mennesker increasing fast Give a living to the farmer farmer household (2 mrd?) 925 mill are hungry, over 1 billion hungry and malnourished About 5 mill die yearly, directly from hunger Around 2060 world population vil top at nearly 10 billion World production must double with less water and oil per person Africa should see three doubeling (som say 5x)

4 Hunger in Europe from 1500-tallet til Periode Område Årsak Kommentar særlig , 1591,1597 Whole Europe Regn, kulde, vulkan utbrudd Spanske armada går under i , særlig 1693/94 France Regn, kulde, Plantesykdommer 10 % av Frankrike dør 1696/97 Europe Regn, kulde Opp mot 1/3 av Finlands befolkning dør Europe Kulde, tørke Sykdom og kulde og feilernæring Europe, Japan Vulkanutbrudd, Laki ¼av Islands befolkning døde, opptil 5 % av Frankrikes France Storm, regn, tørke Franske revolusjon Europe Regn, kulde, 1816 Vulkanutbrudd 1816/17 siste generelle hungersnød i Europa

5 Mats andel av konsumprisindeksen

6 Population & grain prices in Europe millions Cheap transport rapid increase in reclamation outside Old Europe Industrial fertiliser accelerated increase in yields Italian & Hanseatic towns population grain prices Transport Revolution & 2d Industrial Revolution Rise of European world trade system Industrial Revolution Electricity, petrochemistry, internal combustion farm-produced materials displaced by minerals g silver/ 100 kg

7 Real wheat prices in the US and England & Wales ( = 100) Transport revolution, new fertilisers, fossil fuels US England & Wales

8 Falling agricultural prices

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10 Reasons for increasing world food production Century Area for food Reason for area increase Area productivty Important reasons 18 + Indre ekspansjon ++ Removal of barren land, new species eg potato Colonial expansion, opening of the praries + Increased fertilizing, new machines 20 + Oil replace hay and grain ++ Industrial fertilizer, genetic improvement 21 - Grain and Soy replace oil 0/+ General improvement, increase in South?

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12 Consequences of the 20th century North Import protection established in late 19th century Marketregulation during the 30ies Budget support in the 30ies and after WWII Net exporters of food South Increasing export of nonfood eg tea, coffee, cotton Importing cheap food from world market. Local farmers not the basis of the government urban bias Africa ¼ of food is imported Africa as

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14 Hunger in the world i the start of the 21. century

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16 Egypt Winter 2008

17 Supply crisis Export ban Rice: Brasil, Egypt, Vietnam, India Wheat: Russland, Ukraina, Argentina Without consultating WTO Prices rose, but from the lowest level i world history Poor uindustrialized, with large urban population got special problems. Eks Haiti and Egypt.

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20 Trendshift? Is the bottom reached? Will we see a new period with increasing prices? Was the fossil area of an historical exception? Will the post-fossil society be better for agriculture? First time since the American civil war we had increasing prices with expanding production

21 Future NB Prices were increasing on increasing supply demand driven Short view : Increase in acreage for 2008, set-aside released in EU. Could give reduces prices of wheat with bumper crop in 2008 Battle over acreage may give increased prices of other products (maize, soy, cotton) Long view Increased demand will continue Supply may be lagging Increased area in East Europe and Latin-Amerika, Africa demand investment in infrastructure Greater price variation Energyprices will most likely make a new floor in the markets - the prices of the nineties and early 2000-will not come back.

22 Unfair competition

23 Agriculture is not industry Industry Increasing returns Large economies of scale Dynamic imperfect competition Technological change leads to higher wages for producers Irreversible high-wages Agriculture Sooner or later diminishing returns Small economies of scale Perfect competition Technological change leads most often to lower prices for consumers Reversible low-wages

24 Jordbruk drives på naturens premisser

25 Bonden i sentrum

26 Political consequences Norway More resources to national production More granaries? More agriculture in development aid From niche to volume? Relatively small political consequences in Norway the agricultural policy of the 20. century is more or less in place

27 Political consequences in South Increased focus on national food production, through independent farmer Focus on prices and ownership to land More granaries maybe regional solutions Increased tariff protection, changed policy in IMF og World bank Investment in infrastructur for good agricultural areas More cooperatives? equal price independt of size and distance to market

28 Back to the 30ies? Each country decide their own protection Freedom for Market regulation Support for national food production Prefernces for developing countries Agriculture is based on nature and the policy must be adapted accordingly

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