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1 Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity: The Role of Agricultural Technologies Daniel Mason-D Croz IFPRI - Environment and Production Technology Division

2 Presentation Overview 1- Rationale of the study 2- Summary of methodology 3- Some key results 4- Conclusions and messages

3 Business as Usual: Challenges and Threats = Continued Scarcity Challenges Population Growth Income growth and changing diets Greater competition for resources Climate change Higher food prices Growing threats to: Land Water Environmental preservation Biodiversity Enhanced investment in agricultural research + technological change Game-changer Lack sufficient knowledge Disaggregated impacts of specific technologies by country and agroclimatic zone

4 Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity technology assessment Rosegrant et al Global & Regional Ten technologies Three Crops Wheat Rice Maize No-Tillage Integrated Soil Fertility Management Precision Agriculture Crop Protection Drip Irrigation Sprinkler Irrigation Water Harvesting Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Nitrogen Use Efficiency

5 Global Futures and Strategic Foresight technology assessment Robinson et al Regional Four technologies Seven Crops Wheat Rice Maize Potato Groundnut Sorghum Cassava Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Combine Drought and Heat Tolerance Crop Protection

6 Modeling Tools DSSAT Biophysical model - assesses impact of single technology or technology mix Productivity (yields) Resource use (water, N losses) IMPACT Global economic agricultural model - assesses changes in productivity due to technology adoption Food production, consumption, trade International food prices Calorie availability, food security

7 Sample Technology Specification: Drought Tolerance Improved root volume Implemented by increasing root growth factor parameters Enhanced root water extraction capability Implemented by decreasing lower limit parameter for extractable soil moisture For maize, less sensitive to ASI (anthesis to silking interval) Implemented by modifying the existing model to have differential ASI as a cultivar trait, driven by shoot growth rate* * In collaboration with Ag. Bio. Engineering Dept., University of Florida

8 Sample Technology Specification: Crop protection - Cassava Mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) infestation Used historical examples from mealy bug infestations and successful biological control in Africa Simulate infestation in Asia Large negative shocks throughout the region Simulate adoption of biological control (Apoanagyrus lopezi wasps) With increasing adoption of biological controls the region nearly returns to pre-infestation levels of productivity * In collaboration with Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), Colombia

9 High Resolution of Analysis Resolution of Grid: 30 arc-minute, or 0.5 degree (60 km by 60 km) 95,280 cells globally 21,385 cells covering crop land extent for three crops simulated in this study

10 Management Scenarios Business-as-usual scenario Country/crop/input system-specific inorganic fertilizer application rate Furrow irrigation, where irrigation is adopted Sub-optimal planting density & sub-optimal planting window Conventional tillage, where no-till is not yet adopted Representative, optimal varieties based on agro-ecological conditions Current, actual yield loss due to biotic constraints Technology scenarios Specific representation of each technology Area of adoption in 2050 depends on positive yield impact of technology Yield Impact (%) in 2050 Climate change scenarios 2050s AR4 GCM results used in Rosegrant el al AR5 GCM results used in Robinson et al. 2014

11 Crop model (DSSAT) linked with Global Partial Equilibrium Agriculture Sector Model (IMPACT) DSSAT IMPACT Technology strategy (combination of different practices) Corresponding geographically differentiated yield effects Food demand and supply Effects on world food prices and trade Food security and malnutrition

12 Biophysical Results Crop Modeling

13 Global DSSAT Results Yield Change (%) Maize, Rice, & Wheat, 2050 vs. Baseline Source: Rosegrant et al

14 Argentina DSSAT Results:Yield change (%), Combined Rainfed and Irrigated Maize Rice and Wheat MIROC A1B Climate change compared to baseline Yield Impact (%) Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014

15 Efficient use of resources: Change (%) in N Productivity Maize, Rice, Wheat. Irrigated vs. Rainfed, 2050 vs. Baseline (DSSAT) Benefits include reduced N losses, increased N productivity. (Compared to the business-as-usual) 29% less nitrogen losses 28% more N productivity Source: Rosegrant et al

16 Efficient use of resources : Change in Site-specific Water Use Irrigated Maize, Wheat Prominent impacts of Improved Irrigation Technologies Increased water savings (less water used) (Compared to the conventional furrow irrigation) 28% less water applied 22% more water productivity Increased water productivity (more biomass produced per unit water input) Source: Rosegrant et al

17 Technology adoption may mitigate climate change : Results from Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Study Rainfed Maize (Africa) Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia) Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia) Rainfed Potato (Asia) Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India) Black line represents 2050 yields without climate change with baseline technology Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia) Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia) Source: Robinson et al

18 Results IMPACT economic model

19 Percent Change in Total Production, Developing Countries: 2050 MIROCA1B - Technology vs. Baseline Source: Rosegrant et al

20 Percent Change in Cultivated Area, Developing Countries & Latin America : 2050 MIROCA1B - Technology vs. Baseline Source: Rosegrant et al

21 Percent Change in World Price, Maize: 2050 with Technology vs Baseline (IMPACT) Source: Rosegrant et al

22 Percent Change in World Price, Rice: 2050 with Technology vs Baseline (IMPACT) Source: Rosegrant et al

23 Percent Change in World Price, Wheat: 2050 with Technology vs Baseline (IMPACT) Source: Rosegrant et al

24 Change (%) in Population at Risk of Hunger, Developing Countries: 2050 with Technology vs Baseline (IMPACT) Source: Rosegrant et al

25 Key Messages

26 Key Messages Adoption of this set of technologies significantly reduces projected food prices in 2050 compared to the climate change baseline The number of people at risk of hunger in developing countries could be reduced by 10% in 2050 compared to the baseline with adoption of nitrogen use efficiency or no-till

27 Key Messages Improved land management (No-till, precision agriculture, integrated soil fertility management) Large yield impacts in many regions Improved nitrogen use efficient varieties Strong yield impacts May reduce negative environmental impacts from N leaching Heat tolerant varieties Reduce projected negative impacts of climate change Drought tolerant varieties Perform as well as susceptible varieties under no drought stress Significant yield benefits under drought conditions

28 Key Messages Large regional differences in agricultural technology impacts Important to target specific investments to specific regions Heat tolerance to North America and South Asia Drought tolerance to LAC, SSA and SA Crop protection to SSA, SA, and Eastern Europe In South America heat tolerance, no-till and nitrogen use efficiency have largest increases for maize, Nitrogen use efficiency and isfm for rice, Drip and Precision agriculture for wheat In Argentina, precision agriculture, heat tolerance and crop protection offer the largest promise for yield increase

29 Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity: The Role of Agricultural Technologies We find strong positive food security impacts for almost all the agricultural technologies studied---but getting technologies to farmers is a complex undertaking. However, we must act and act fast, as the cost of inaction could be dramatic for the world s foodinsecure and our planet s future.

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