The Remanufacturing Experience at AAPEX

Transcription

1 The Remanufacturing Experience at AAPEX 1:15 p.m. Trends in the Automotive and Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Gary Meteer Director, Commercial Vehicle Solutions IHS Automotive Mike Wall Director, Automotive Analysis IHS Automotive 9

2 November 2, 2015 ihs.com Commercial Vehicle Overview (Past, Present and Future) Gary R. Meteer Sr. Director Commercial Products gary.meteer@ihs.com

3 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence Trucking Industry Profile (TIPNet) VIN Based Specifications Make Model Series Engine Manufacturer Engine Model Fuel Type Vehicle Type Wheel Driving Vehicle Class Cab Configuration Year Model Capabilities and Applications for all departments within a Company Custom Geography Life Cycle Analysis Lead Generation Business Information (SIC Code/Vocation) Fleet size analysis (National vs. Local Opportunities) Custom Visuals and Reports Aftermarket Parts Replacement Demand (U.S. Only)

4 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence New Registrations Business Owners 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% GVW 3 GVW 4-7 GVW 8

5 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence GVW New Registrations Index GVW 4-8 GVW 3

6 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence New Registrations by GVW 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% QTR 2 GVW 4 GVW 5 GVW 6 GVW 7 GVW 8

7 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence New Registrations of GVW 8 Vehicles % 40.0% % % 25.0% % % 10.0% % Index 0.0% IND GVW 8 FLEETS 500+ Share

8 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence New Registrations GVWs 4-8 by Manufacturer Index FORD FREIGHTLINER INTERNATIONAL KENWORTH MACK PETERBILT VOLVO

9 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence New Registrations by Vehicle Type for GVWs % 40.0% 39.0% % 45.0% 40.0% 42.0% % 35.0% 35.0% 30.0% 30.0% 25.0% 25.0% 23.0% 20.0% 18.0% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% CAB CHASSIS/STRAIGHT TRUCK TRACTOR TRUCK OTHER 0.0% CAB CHASSIS/STRAIGHT TRUCK TRACTOR TRUCK OTHER

10 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence GVW Applications/Vehicle Types

11 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence New Registrations by Vehicle Type for GVWs % 80.0% GVW % 80.0% GVW % 60.0% 40.0% 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% CUTAWAY STRAIGHT TRUCK TOTAL 0.0% CAB CHASSIS STRAIGHT TRUCK TOTAL 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% GVW 6 MOTOR HOME STRAIGHT TRUCK TOTAL 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% GVW 7 BUS SCHOOL STRAIGHT TRUCK TOTAL 100.0% 50.0% GVW 8 0.0% STRAIGHT TRUCK TRACTOR TRUCK TOTAL mo's

12 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence Top Vocations for GVW 4-8 New Registrations 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% BUS TRANSPORTATION GENERAL FREIGHT INDIVIDUAL LEASE/RENTAL WHOLESALE/RETAIL/SERVICES

13 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence New Registrations by Fuel Type for GVWs % % % 84.0% 90.0% 86.0% 80.0% 80.0% 70.0% 70.0% 60.0% 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 12.0% 1.0% DIESEL GASOLINE COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS 3.0% OTHER 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 12.0% 1.0% 1.0% DIESEL GASOLINE COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS OTHER

14 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence New Registrations Diesel Engine Manufacturer s Share of GVWs % 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% QTR 2 CATERPILLAR CUMMINS DETROIT DIESEL FORD INTERNATIONAL ISUZU PACCAR

15 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence New Registrations Diesel share of GVWs % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% QTR 2 GVW 4 GVW 5 GVW 6 GVW 7 GVW 8

16 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence IHS Geographic Boundaries CENTRAL WEST N EAST SOUTH

17 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence New Registrations GVW Percent Change (%) by Region GVW 3 GVW 4 GVW 5 GVW 6 GVW 7 GVW 8 Total Northeast Central South West Total Shaded areas denote higher percent change versus industry by GVW (Jan-June 2016 vs 2015)

18 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence GVW 3-8 New/Used Transactions by Quarter 400, % 350, % 300, % 250, % 200, % 150, % 100, % 50, % % Total New & Used Units Used % of Total

19 Commercial Vehicles Intelligence Vehicles in Operation by Year Model as of June GVW 4-7 GVW 8

20 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence Vehicles in Operation by Vehicle Manufacturer and GVW as of June FORD FREIGHTLINER INTERNATIONAL KENWORTH MACK PETERBILT VOLVO GVW 4 GVW 5 GVW 6 GVW 7 GVW 8

21 Commercial Vehicles Intelligence Vehicles in Operation by Engine Manufacturer and Age Range as of June % 70.0% 60.0% Engine Manufacturer Population Models Caterpillar 1.1M Cummins 1.9M Detroit Diesel.8M Ford.8M International 1.5M 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% CATERPILLAR CUMMINS DETROIT DIESEL FORD INTERNATIONAL

22 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence GVW 4-8 Vehicles in Operation by Region Fleets of 500+ Percent (%) of Region 70.0% 60.0% 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% CENTRAL NORTHEAST SOUTH WEST TOTAL 0.0%

23 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence Average Age of the Vehicle Population by GVW Ave Age 14.8 Ave Age GVW 4 GVW 5 GVW 6 GVW 7 GVW 8 GVW 4 GVW 5 GVW 6 GVW 7 GVW CYE 2015 as of June 2015

24 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence GVW 4-8 Fleet Size Comparison New Registrations Vehicles In Operation Fleet Size Jan-June 2015 % OF TOTAL (%) as of June 2015 % OF TOTAL (%) Total Vehicles

25 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence Aftermarket Parts Replacement Demand Electrical Brake (ABS/Hydraulic) Brake (Air) STARTERS ABS.ECU AIR BRAKE.AIR COMPRESSOR ALTERNATORS ABS.MODULAR VALVE AIR BRAKE.AIR DRYER BATTERIES ABS.WHEEL SENSORS AIR BRAKE.AIR TANKS BELTS HYDRAULIC BRAKE.BOOSTER AIR BRAKE.CAM BUSHING HYDRAULIC BRAKE.CALIPER AIR BRAKE.CAMSHAFT Cooling HYDRAULIC BRAKE.DRUM AIR BRAKE.CHAMBER RADIATOR HYDRAULIC BRAKE.HOSES AIR BRAKE.CHECK VALVES THERMOSTAT HYDRAULIC BRAKE.MASTER CYLINDER AIR BRAKE.DASH VALVES RADIATOR HOSES HYDRAULIC BRAKE.PAD AIR BRAKE.DRUMS HYDRAULIC BRAKE.RELINED SHOE AIR BRAKE.DRYER CARTRIDGE Steering HYDRAULIC BRAKE.ROTOR AIR BRAKE.FOOT BRAKE VALVES POWER STEERING GEAR HYDRAULIC BRAKE.SPRINGS PIN AIR BRAKE.HOSES POWER STEERING PUMP HYDRAULIC BRAKE.VALVES AIR BRAKE.OTHER AIR VALVES TIE ROD HYDRAULIC BRAKE.WHEEL CYLINDER AIR BRAKE.RELAY VALVES DRAG LINK AIR BRAKE.RELINED SHOE AIR BRAKE.ROLLER PINS SPRINGS Suspension/Wheel End/Exhaust Diesel Engine Parts AIR BRAKE.SLACK ADJUSTERS SHOCK ABSORBERS (front/rear) CYLINER HEAD AIR BRAKE.SPIDER SEALS EGR VALVES AIR BRAKE.SPRING BRAKE WHEEL BEARINGS ENGINE CONTROL MODULE AIR BRAKE.SPRING BRAKE VALVES EXHAUST PIPE FAN CLUTCH MUFFLER FUEL INJECTOR FUEL PUMPS Tires (Trailers) Tires INTAKE EXHAUST VALVES TRAILER REPLACEMENT DRIVE REPLACEMENT OIL PUMP TRAILER RETREAD DRIVE RETREAD TURBOCHARGER STEER REPLACEMENT WATER PUMP STEER RETREAD ENGINE KITS ENGINE KITS (IN-FRAME AND OUT-OF-FRAME) REPLACEMENT ENGINE Filters (By Fuel Type) OIL Motor Oil FUEL GAS AIR DIESEL

26 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence Aftermarket Replacement Demand GVW 3-8 Remanufactured Opportunity in the U.S. PART NAME LOCAL REMAN UNITS (000's) LOCAL REMAN $$ (000 s) OE REMAN UNITS (000's) OE REMAN $$ (000 s) ABS.ECU ALTERNATOR FUEL INJECTORS FUEL PUMP OIL PUMP STARTER TURBOCHARGER WATER PUMP Products tracked by IHS Account for $2.878 Billion in Remanufactured opportunities TOTAL REMANUFACTURED 6, ,584 9,100 1,941,341 8 Parts Percent of Total 30% 48% 46% 55%

27 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence-Canada GVW New Registrations Index GVW 4-8 GVW 3

28 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence-Canada New Registrations by GVW 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Index GVW 3 GVW 4 GVW 5 GVW 6 GVW 7 GVW 8

29 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence Medium and Heavy Duty Global Definitions GVWR Standard Metric Class 1 0 6,000 lbs kg Class 2 6,001 10,000 lbs kg Class 3 10,001 14,000 lbs kg Class 4 14,001 16,000 lbs kg Class 5 16,001 19,500 lbs kg Class 6 19,501 26,000 lbs kg Class 7 26,001 33,000 lbs kg Class 8 33,001 lbs kg -

30 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence World truck Sales

31 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence GVW 4-7 sales will continue to gain ground. GVW 8 should peak in 2015 US retail sales class 4-7 US retail sales class Thousans of units Thousans of units Source: IHS Source: IHS

32 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence-Canada Better days ahead Canada retail sales class 4-7 Canada retail sales class Thousans of units Thousans of units Source: IHS Source: IHS

33 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence Quarterly Market Report

34 Commercial Vehicle Intelligence THANK YOU IHS Commercial The Industry Standard for Commercial Vehicle Information

36 Annual Real GDP Growth (in percent) World Economic Growth Global Growth Impacted by Emerging Market Volatility World Average 2015 = 2.5% Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 Growth slows in China -6.0 World United States Japan Eurozone Brazil Russia India China Source: IHS Data Insight. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 44

37 Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 Large Markets Light Vehicle Sales Forecast China Remains Dominant; Little Sales Growth Expected for Developed Markets Annual Light Vehicle Sales Volume (in millions, ) Top 8 markets account for close to 70% of global sales : 17.3 million United States Japan Germany France Brazil Russia India China Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Sales Forecast. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 45

38 Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 Light Vehicle Fleets Overall Fleet Growth Favors Emerging Markets, Particularly China and India Total Car + LCV in Operation (millions) World Total Billion Billion China and India to see fleets double over forecast horizon oil import cost exposure improving dramatically. Policies to promote more fuel efficient vehicles facing more difficult economics. United States China Japan Germany France India Brazil Russia 2014 Source: CY , IHS Automotive. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 46

39 Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 Products In-Market More Variety to Continue Rising in BRIC and Other Developing Markets Count of Nameplates ( ) 1, United States Japan Germany France Brazil Russia India China Source: IHS Automotive. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 47

40 Supplier Dynamics Mega Platforms Drive Production Growth Automotive Industry Outlook / November % 60.0% % 50% 50.0% Million Units % 18% 27% 39% 40% 38% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% % Share of Global Output M+ Platform < 1M Platform Share 0.0%. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 48

41 Beyond the Recovery Global Production Growth Millions million Automotive Industry Outlook / November Millions Greater China South Asia Europe million North America South America Middle East/Africa Japan/Korea ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 49

42 Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 U.S. Consumer Behavior Intention to Buy a New Vehicle Remains High; Stronger Wages will Improve Ability Percent of respondents saying Yes Six-month moving average Actual Not just a needs - based recovery, but also wants driven Source: Conference Board Survey of intention to buy within 6 months. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 50

43 Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 U.S.: Light Vehicle Sales Outlook New Housing Starts and Full-Size Pickup Sales U.S. Full-Size Pickup Sales Full-Size P/U Sales New Housing Starts New Housing Starts (000s) Strong correlation between housing starts and Full-Size Pickup sales Housing starts are recovering (slowly) not expected to reach previous peak; Full- Size Pickup sales recovering with improving commercial fleet sales and redesigned vehicle offerings (with more forthcoming) further bolstered by low gas prices. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 51

44 Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 U.S.: Light Vehicle Sales Outlook 20 Units in Millions Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Sales Forecast Sales growth rate moderates somewhat in the near term, yet we are expecting the market to surpass the pre-crash peak in 2016 Average vehicle age of 11.5 years provides some sales support market transitions from those who need to buy to those who want to buy ; credit availability is a further enabler Improving economy, expanding population, wave of new products and favorable demographics support the longer term outlook; engagement of Gen Y is in the spotlight Baby boomers ration auto purchases; priorities shift to a retirement lifestyle. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 52

45 U.S.: Light Vehicle Sales Outlook Change in Driving Volume Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 Miles Traveled (Billions) After seeing sustained flat miles driven under 3 trillion miles, 2014 exceed 3 trillion for the first time since 2007 Source: IHS Automotive and FHWA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 53

46 Aftermarket Dynamics U.S. Light Vehicles in Operation (VIO) VIO will Increase 9.2% by 2020 Automotive Industry Outlook / November MILLIONS Data as of January1 each year. History Forecast Source: IHS Automotive. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 54

48 Change in Consumer Behavior Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 Average Length of Ownership Trend - Months Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q New Buyers Used Buyers Total (New and Used). ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 56 Average Months Owned

50 Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 Average Vehicle Age Growth Slows 2014 Rapid acceleration of average light vehicle age in the U.S. is slowing % % % Source: IHS Automotive. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 58

52 Impact on U.S. VIO Age Groups Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 Vehicles new to 5 years old grow 24 % Vehicles 6-11 years old decline 11 % Vehicles 12 + years old grow 15 % Source: IHS Automotive Is the aftermarket sweet spot really shrinking or just changing?. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 60

53 Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 Average Age Impact on Population of Older Vehicles New 5 Year Old 84m units 2015 New 5 Year Old 70m units 2020 New 5 Year Old 86m units Source: IHS Automotive Segment remains flat after decline due to recession s impact on new vehicle sales. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 61

54 Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 Average Age Impact on Population of Older Vehicles Year Old 35m units Year Old 57m units Year Old 76m units 19 million units will be 25 years or older by 2020! Source: IHS Automotive. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 62

55 Summary Automotive Industry Outlook / November 2015 Multi-speed world creates opportunities and threats In the near-term, North America serves as a critical offset to the volatility presented by select key Emerging Markets. Growth prospects remain compelling for proactive suppliers Opportunities in markets such as China, India and others, further bolstered by global platform deployment, require a globalized support strategy. Influx of new product offerings creates margin pressure for weaker players competition will only intensify! Sustainable profit paths are even more critical in a hyper-competitive and volatile marketplace Increased activity around both strategic acquisitions and divestitures resulting in a more focused business. Aftermarket and remanufactured market as an additional profit path and a further differentiator.. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 63

56 Thank You! Mike Wall Director, Automotive Analysis IHS Automotive Direct Mobile IHS Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ); Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) ; Asia and the Pacific Rim: ; COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER. All rights reserved. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent of IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This presentation is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at your own risk. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS.

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